There is only one New York team standing and it's playoff time. Time to Write them Up. Nets@Raptors!

These are questions that Nets fans can't and won't answer (and if they do their answers will be flimsy or suspect).

So you simply ask the question like a defense attorney and then let the silence of the courtroom or the stutter of uncertainty tell the tale.

Ultimately, the point is, the momentum lies with the Raptors and that is largely undebatable given these late season performances by the Nets, effort or otherwise.

So we keep bolstering and bolstering the argument for the Raptors. 

Onto the next point.

3. 12:30 start time

How many times did I harp on this point with the Knicks? Endlessly. Why? It paid off, big time.

So why is it relevant here?

First, I checked the Nets schedule and the Nets have had only 3 early start times this year (compared to six last year). Do you know why? Early start times don't get ratings and the Nets were supposed to be one of the biggest draws this year.

They ended up going 1-2 ATS and SU in early start times. Not really material given the sample size.

How did the Raptors do?

They went 3-4 ATS And SU. Ok that's a bigger sample.

But the Raptors had many more games early. Almost a tenth of a season, among the most in the league. More importantly, they got better as the season went along going 3-1 ATS and SU in their last 4.

That's even more important when you look at the dates of when those games occurred.

The nets last win in the afternoon came against the Knicks all the way back on January 20th. So it's been three months since the nets last early start.

The Raptors on the other hand, had the following early games:

3/2 104-99 W over golden State

3/16 121-113 L to Suns

3/23 96-86 W over ATL

4/16 116-107 W over Detroit

So essentially in six weeks heading to the playoffs, the Raptors have had 4 games early, among the most in the league while the nets had three total, all year!, and all when they were a completely different team very early in the season.

Essentially the Raptors have been conditioned for an early game. Why did this happen? The Raptors simply aren't a draw and therefore when their games occur early, they usually happen at home and they fill voids for the league.

The Nets were supposed to be a giant draw and had very few early games, among the lowest in the league. 

So when this 12:30 pm start time popped up, you get an advantage for the Raptors who have this: almost a tenth of their games this season early, and a team that has fared well SU and ATS in them lately and they are playing a team that hasn't played early much at all.

4. How good are the Raptors this year?

Better than you think. Forget the idea they were throwing the year. That team is a thing of the past.

This team became MUCH better after they got rid of Rudy happy. I can personally attest that this guy is a offense kille (and what he gives up on the other end) despite his 20 PPG. It's why the Grizzlies for rid of him and why the Raptors did too. Why the Kings would want to keep and pay the guy is beyond me. But that's why Sacto is Sacto.

So how did Rudy affect the Raps? Quite negatively. They were 6-12 SU with him and still got 48 wins this year. If you reverse that record (and there is an argument to do so) assuming he never played for them, you get six more net wins and this is a 54 win team. Even if you take 52 wins, you are looking at a team that would get much more respect in this spot and a game one line that is worse. They are 42-26 without him  with a 62% winning percentage.

So the Rudy-less Raps are quite good, in a similar way the Nets are post-2013.

5. Miscellaneous Points

The Coach - While the Nets players have tons of post-season experience their rookie coach has none in his first playoff series ever where the brand of basketball changes. There has to be some kind of post-season learning curve here just as there was to start the season for him (and what a curve that was!). Even if it lasts for one game, that's all that matters. We only need the opening game here.

Deron Williams - I gotta take a shot at him here. I saw him lay down in game one at home last year and game 7 at home as well vs. Chicago. No energy, no flair, no urgency. When the pressure is on, the guy folds like a beige polyester suit from the 70's. There is a lot of pressure here, the most he's seen all season. Will he learn from his mistake? I wouldn't put my money on it that he would. He may have a fine series but it is more probable than not he could come out flat tomorrow as he showed last year.

Sweat Equity - Doug Collins used this term last night in the Pistons Bad Boys documentary. It refers to how many times the team has gutted it out in big spots together. Outside of PP and KG (and KG is really a nonfactor most of the time), the answer for this team is zero sweat equity. JJ, Deron PP KG + anyone else really haven't been here together. Raptors haven't either but they have home court and the chip on the shoulder and momentum. I'll take that over the nets better talent but nonexistent sweat equity in the opening game.

Their games this year - 2-2 season series SU, all neck and neck except for one the Raps won convincingly. Yes the nets had 3 b2b's in those four where the raptors were the next game and they won 1 and lost 2 but the raps had a b2b in one which they lost one too. Overall, they play each other very tight and I'd take the home team with a very short line given all the above points.

The crowd - when you see it tomorrow at 12:30, you will swallow hard if you have the Nets. This playoff starved crowd will be a 14th man and they will be loud and proud somewhat similar to what you see from the maniacs at Oracle. 

The line - It's essentially a money line at 2 and has now gone to 3 from 2.5 as I was writing this so I've had to update this part of the post. This will be a close game. I got in at 2 last night. I am not going to post the number I got it at because that number is no longer available to the reader at the time of this post. I can't say that you should be off this game at 3. It doesn't push me off this game but I'd prefer a ML at 3 just because this is the playoffs and you shouldn't give out even a single point if you don't have to. If an ML makes you more comfortable, take it. I don't cap games for 1 point though. The preferred line was 2 so we'll have to sweat 3 with money on the ML as well. Again, this will be close but there is enough here to even support even the -3. I went deeper with the write-up to justify that.

There was such an overwhelming groundswell of support on the Nets Series line, it was driven up near -180! What's going to happen is that even if the nets lose game 1, the line has gone negative so far, that it may not even get back to what it opened at! (Probably, will but not if it keeps going up and certainly one game will not dissuade net backers that they won't still win this series). 

Nets on the road? Not the same team at <.500 ATS. Their home invincibility has really spilled over to their overall play. It's not the same.

After my Cavs/Hawks debacle, I wanted to go into the playoffs on a strong note. Since that game I've won 3 posts in a row: Heat over Knicks, Knicks over Raptors and Kings over Wolves. 3 in a row is strong and I want to continue to capitalize with my local teams.

Now it's the playoffs and it's no more shi+ to gold. Everyone comes to play. The Raptors are a better play here. A boatload of info above supports that claim. To my knowledge LC and I have never been on the same side. Today we are both on the Raptors, not because he took my pick or I took his, but because this is a SOLID pick, and we both see it that way. And I am confident it will cash.