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Thursday Night NBA with notes on every game.

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2014-2015 NBA Season: (3-3 50% -1.5 Units)
Sides: (3-3 50%)
Totals: (0-0)

1-3 Unit Plays
Each Unit = % of starting bankroll


Thursday Night:

Pistons +6 -110 (2 Units)
Jazz +10.5 -110 (1 Unit)
Clippers -13 -110 (2 Units)


Thursday Night Notes:

Wizards @ Magic - Wiz favored by 4.5 tonight in Orlando.  Wiz went to Miami last night and failed to cover as a 5 point dog, losing by 12.  Wiz just aren't nearly as good without Nene and Beal.  It's hard to back them giving 4.5 playing on back to back nights even against the Magic.  But, the Magic are missing Oladipo and Frye and Harris was hurt a bit, but apparently it was just cramps.  I took the Hornets to cover against the beat up Magic the other night and they dominated.  I can't back either of these teams tonight.  Don't see an edge with the injuries on both sides.

Pistons @ Timberwolves - Wolves are favored by 6 tonight.  This seems like a case where people will be scared off of Detroit tonight because they failed to cover in Denver, along with people liking the Wolves bc they covered in Memphis last night.  I understand that this is a west vs east team and the west team should usually have the edge, but I'm taking the points tonight, getting 2 full possessions.  Even without Monroe, I still think the Pistons cover this game.  Smith and Drummond should be tough for Thad and Pekovic down low, I think we'll see more of Jennings tonight than last night, and Stan Van should get these guys up for this game.  Taking 6 tonight.

Knicks @ Cavaliers - 12.5 is a high spread in the Cavs first game with a new coach and new players.  But, looking how the Knicks played last night, how could they not put this # high?  I'm not going to chase this # with the Knicks and certainly don't want to lay this number with a new Cavs team.  Stay away for me and will enjoy watching the Cavs.

Jazz @ Mavericks - Mavs favored by 10.5 tonight.  I took Utah last night and was dead wrong.  I thought they would hang around with Houston after Houston trounced the Lakers, and the Jazz were only down 3 after the 3rd last night, but Houston broke away in the 4th to win by DD.  Mavs won both of these meetings at home last year by DD and the Jazz are on back to back games, having had to travel to Dallas last night from home.  Mavs are coming off a tough loss in San Antonio.  I'm taking another stab with Utah.  Have a feeling they keep this game close like last night, but don't get destroyed in the 4th.  Taking the DD spread tonight.

Thunder @ Clippers - Clippers favored by 13 tonight.  Major revenge tonight for the Clippers after getting ousted by the Thunder in the playoffs.  I'm laying these 13 tonight.  Thunder got destroyed last night against a worse team than the Clippers, with a pg with way less defensive skills than that of Paul to guard Westbrook.  Westbrook was really the only guy doing anything last night, and while he will get his, it won't be near enough.  I see the Clippers destroying this team tonight and the Thunder don't have enough 3 point shooters to backdoor their way into a cover.  
 
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BOL buds
22nd
 
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Thunder lost last night as expected... because they didn't have enough players on the bench.  Eventually 1 or 2 are going to happen in the 4th quarter.

1. Your star players run out of gas (Westbrook and Ibaka)
2. Foul trouble for the star players causing the bench to be played more.

I was watching this game... watching Durant cheer like a cheerleader on the sideline as Westbrook went to town on the Blazers...but when the game counted in the 4th, Westbrook could only do so much and was getting tired and NO other Thunder stepped up and Blazers not only came from behind for the win, but covered the -9 spread.

Being that this is a B2B game for the Thunder, the Clippers should have no hurdles to win this game, but the only problem I have with the NBA is this... Coaches are known to rest their stars once there is a big lead and just eat the clock and put up 3s, allowing the other team to put up miracles or just eat at the points (backdoor moose).

But still -13 might still be the play on the Clippers tonight.
They have to make a statement in their 1st game after the whole Sterling debacle this summer.  Thunder players will feel the pain of playing a B2B on a short bench again.
 
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The things is that the Clippers are very deep, so even if they rest their starters late with a big lead, it's doubtful they let a team backdoor them, especially the Thunder on back to back with not much depth at all.  

 
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PapaShango, I agree that the Clipper bench is deep.
The problem I have is.. Doc Rivers is one of those coaches that doesn't show up the other coach and run up the score and plays the hold the ball and waste 20 seconds then fire the ball at the basket.

I still like the Clippers -13, but it will be a smaller action for me.
I like Cavs tonight. First statement game for James at home.

Maybe even my first 2 team teaser tonight on the Cav/Clippers
 
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Posted: #6
GL Shango 
 
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Good insight as always.

I am on the Wizs I know you don't see value there and that is fine.

I am on the Clips as well and kind of have the same feeling as you guys. I thought about it for a while and was a little leery about laying the big chalk and wouldn't have done it if it was against the thunder and opening night. I didn't get to see any of their pre-season game and read a little bit that things were off. hopefully Doc ha remedy those things.

Good luck

 
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Quote Originally Posted by qster:

PapaShango, I agree that the Clipper bench is deep.
The problem I have is.. Doc Rivers is one of those coaches that doesn't show up the other coach and run up the score and plays the hold the ball and waste 20 seconds then fire the ball at the basket.

I still like the Clippers -13, but it will be a smaller action for me.
I like Cavs tonight. First statement game for James at home.

Maybe even my first 2 team teaser tonight on the Cav/Clippers

The revenge factor is the main reason I'm giving the points tonight...
 
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That's what preseason is meant for.. experimenting with lineups against another pro team.  Only chance to experiment during the season is during blowout games (which do not happen often, unless you are the Lakers, 76ers and the Knicks! ) ... Yikes!
 
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Quote Originally Posted by PapaShango:


The revenge factor is the main reason I'm giving the points tonight...


Revenge is only good.. served COLD.
Would be a better revenge game if the Thunder team was healthy and the Clippers beat them with Durant.

Its going to be interesting how much Rivers players his starters and his bench and if Brooks has the brains to not over play Westbrook (he does have 2 injuries to this knee) in this B2B.
 
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Posted: #11
Nene is expected to suit up and play tonight against the Magics
 
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Ha- well who was coaching these teams last year? 

2/9/14 vs PHI W 123-78
https://espn.go.com/nba/boxscore?id=400489636

3/6/14 @LAL W 142-94
https://espn.go.com/nba/boxscore?id=400489789



Quote Originally Posted by qster:

PapaShango, I agree that the Clipper bench is deep.
The problem I have is.. Doc Rivers is one of those coaches that doesn't show up the other coach and run up the score and plays the hold the ball and waste 20 seconds then fire the ball at the basket.

I still like the Clippers -13, but it will be a smaller action for me.
I like Cavs tonight. First statement game for James at home.

Maybe even my first 2 team teaser tonight on the Cav/Clippers
 
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Posted: #13
Nice write up once again.

Note: the thunder did not get destroyed!

They hung tough for 3.5 quarters and then the bottom fell out.

Other note: the wolves are giving 6!!!! Wooooow. That's too much IMO!
 
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Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:

Nice write up once again.

Note: the thunder did not get destroyed!

They hung tough for 3.5 quarters and then the bottom fell out.

Other note: the wolves are giving 6!!!! Wooooow. That's too much IMO!

The bottom will fall out most of the games without KD against superior teams.  Thunder could start out hot in games when Westbrook gets going, but he'll cool off and once he does, game over.  Lance Thomas played 31 minutes last night and had 14 points.  That'll probably be his best game of the season lol.  Guy was a scrub for the Pelicans and was not impressive on Duke.  Thunder are really bad without KD, and no Jackson, Lamb, and Morrow.  Where's the scoring coming from?  
 
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Quote Originally Posted by PapaShango:


The revenge factor is the main reason I'm giving the points tonight...

Papa,

I had this game circled when the schedule came out and was gonna make it a very big play (for this very reason). Additionally, the arena will be hopping with excitement because of the new owner, a new day, etc. But then Durant got hurt (not to mention Jackson) and I knew I'd be dealing with a DD line, so I put my money on the Heat instead. Can you really get revenge against a team that is a shell of itself? Will it be satisfactory? Maybe. It would be interesting to research how teams with revenge in mind have done against crippled opponents. I'd be willing to tease this but not sure about laying all of that.
 
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Nene will be back for the wizards itll be hard for Vucevic to get going against the front court of Nene and Gortat...

GL with your picks im with you on Detroit and the Clips tonight they should roll in Lob City tonight new owner they will want to get this new regime started in a big way tonight
 
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Quote Originally Posted by begginerboy:


Papa,

I had this game circled when the schedule came out and was gonna make it a very big play (for this very reason). Additionally, the arena will be hopping with excitement because of the new owner, a new day, etc. But then Durant got hurt (not to mention Jackson) and I knew I'd be dealing with a DD line, so I put my money on the Heat instead. Can you really get revenge against a team that is a shell of itself? Will it be satisfactory? Maybe. It would be interesting to research how teams with revenge in mind have done against crippled opponents. I'd be willing to tease this but not sure about laying all of that.

Yeah, I understand those worries, but I think as you said, new owner, fans will be hyped.  Thunder can't really be too optimistic about last night's performance and may come out flat tonight.  I'm fine with laying the points in this one.  Durant, Jackson, Morrow, and Lamb is too much scoring not playing in this game that I feel comfortable that Clippers blow them out tonight.
 
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Quote Originally Posted by FrankieD908:

Nene will be back for the wizards itll be hard for Vucevic to get going against the front court of Nene and Gortat...

GL with your picks im with you on Detroit and the Clips tonight they should roll in Lob City tonight new owner they will want to get this new regime started in a big way tonight

Right.  Forgot that Nene was only a 1 game suspension.  Should give the Wizards a needed boost, but still staying away.  
 
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Posted: #19
BOL PAPPA
 
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Posted: #20
Like em all tho not brave enough to pull trigger on Mavs/Jazz game myself 

BOL Papa 
 
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Thanks for the thoughts Papa, always enjoy reading them
 
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Posted: #22
Good stuff Papa!!!
Everyone has a plan, until they get hit in the mouth.
 
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excellent write ups

I like the under in the Washington game because the Wiz games have produced a lot of low scoring when Beal doesn't play. He really opens up the floor for everyone else.

Also, the Thunders only real recourse is defense and Jordan will make it hard for the tired OKC squad to score inside. Take under there as well.
 
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Posted: #24
Nene and Blair are playing tonight for Wash, take wash -4.5
 
 
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Quote Originally Posted by begginerboy:


Papa,

I had this game circled when the schedule came out and was gonna make it a very big play (for this very reason). Additionally, the arena will be hopping with excitement because of the new owner, a new day, etc. But then Durant got hurt (not to mention Jackson) and I knew I'd be dealing with a DD line, so I put my money on the Heat instead. Can you really get revenge against a team that is a shell of itself? Will it be satisfactory? Maybe. It would be interesting to research how teams with revenge in mind have done against crippled opponents. I'd be willing to tease this but not sure about laying all of that.

Papa, 

I just remembered a time when I got roped into a similar bet. Must have blocked it out of my memory because of how painful that loss was. Warriors were playing the Spurs last year in a revenge game for their playoff loss. Pop pulled his starters before the game and Dubs were forced to get their revenge against the Spurs' second team. As a result, they relaxed. Why? Because it's hard to motivate yourself to take revenge against the other team's scrubs. And Westbrook going out did not help your cause either. Suddenly, as the game got tight, so did the Clippers collective sphincters, and their went the cover.
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