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*Best Bet* San Antonio Under (186') for 3 Units
Spurs/Hornets 9:30: This series at New Orleans has maintained a tight range of 182 to 186 in its last 4 meetings since the start of this season. And we like the defensive adjustments Popovich made with putting his best stopper - Bowen on Stojakovic while letting Parker run with Paul; the rationale is he'd rather lock down key weapons and let their superstar attempt to beat them on his own. And also starting Ginobili gives the Spurs a bit more versatility on both ends of the floor. As for New Orleans, HC Scott is spending much time on defensive adjustments; consequently, we should see less offensive productivity by SA on this floor; after all, the Spurs have had trouble scoring here recently, and the Hornets are 12-28 O/U w/ revenge. Moreover, New Orleans is 3-8 O/U at home in this 'total' range, while the Spurs have gone "under" in 4 of the last 6 in this 'total' range on the road.
Orlando (+6) for 2 Units
Orlando/Detroit 7:05: We don't anticipate that Billups (hamstring) will see much action, perhaps none at all; after all, they'll need him healthy for the next series or, if it calls for it, the next game of this series. Therefore, we'll look for Orlando to establish urgency and be competitive here. Orlando is a sweet 11-3 ATS / 10-4 SU revenging a home loss. The Magic need to get in their offense quicker to negate the Pistons lock down half court defense, which has rendered Howard near useless on the scoring end. The Pistons can get lazy at times when they get bored and this should be a prime spot for that with the Pistons in control of the series. Orlando the call.
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