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Unbelievable Trend over 80%!!!

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Posted: #1
if Home favorite wins 1st quarter they win the game SU 80% of the time in 2016 season.

as Home Favorite: if they win 1st Q
SU: 199-49 80.2%!!
ATS: 154-87-7 63.9%

as Away favorite: 78.5% if they win 1st Q
SU: 84-23 78.5%
ATS 65-41-1 61.3%

whoever wins 1st quarter (no favorite specified) 65.4%
SU: 382-202 65.4%
ATS: 355-215-14 62.3%

Great trend if you betting Live also.







 
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Posted: #2
 
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Posted: #3
 Wow, where did you find those stats from? Crazy for live betting.
 
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Posted: #4


Let me bookmark this.
 
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Posted: #5
Quote Originally Posted by iceman2003:

 Wow, where did you find those stats from? Crazy for live betting.


I do alot of work on SDQL (Sports Data Query) and was working on trends on betting quarters and noticed the trend there and the amount of influence 1st quarter has on setting the tone for the rest of the game. This goes back for every season by the way. Even higher percentages for 2015 and 2014
 
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Posted: #6
This is exactly how books make $$ off of live betting.  Say a bettor wagers a team say laying points and if they are down at the end of the 1st quarter they double dip thinking they get better odds on the ML.  

It's like when a team is up 20 at halftime and the 2nd half line is -1, the belief is the team losing is getting +19 for the game, tremendous odds. Not true.  The team losing and getting blow out will most likely pull their starters and play their bench before the team winning. 
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Posted: #7
Interesting. It would be more interesting if the data could be broken down by spread (for example, what is the win % if the closing line was -1, or -8, etc.?). Also, where are they getting their closing line to determine the ATS %?

Definitely a good system to bet live or at HT if the favorite is down, or a heavy favorite is in a close game.
 
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Posted: #8
Quote Originally Posted by davemsh:

This is exactly how books make $$ off of live betting.  Say a bettor wagers a team say laying points and if they are down at the end of the 1st quarter they double dip thinking they get better odds on the ML.  

It's like when a team is up 20 at halftime and the 2nd half line is -1, the belief is the team losing is getting +19 for the game, tremendous odds. Not true.  The team losing and getting blow out will most likely pull their starters and play their bench before the team winning. 

I used to play a system in CBB that was really good but doesn't work as well in NBA. If a favorite is covering the full game spread at HT and is favored again for the 2H, take them again.

For NBA, the best live betting system I've found is to take a team down 20+ going into the 4th quarter. Generally they'll be favored but usually you get the garbage time cover (not for the game, for the live spread going into the 4Q).
 
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Posted: #9
Quote Originally Posted by RoagBettor:

Interesting. It would be more interesting if the data could be broken down by spread (for example, what is the win % if the closing line was -1, or -8, etc.?). Also, where are they getting their closing line to determine the ATS %?

Definitely a good system to bet live or at HT if the favorite is down, or a heavy favorite is in a close game.


 I can pull the data for any line for any year you want. it's very easy, but for my betting sake I have found teams to fade and teams to play on and that has brought my SU% to 84% 132-26

I've got ton of these trends for Qs, Halfs, Full game.. and I do pretty well with it. If you need a specific line for this let me know and I'll look it up for you.
 
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Posted: #10
Quote Originally Posted by The_Extremist:



 I can pull the data for any line for any year you want. it's very easy, but for my betting sake I have found teams to fade and teams to play on and that has brought my SU% to 84% 132-26

I've got ton of these trends for Qs, Halfs, Full game.. and I do pretty well with it. If you need a specific line for this let me know and I'll look it up for you.

Great; let's see what it looks like for a -1, -5 and -10 fave. Thanks.
 
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Posted: #11
Quote Originally Posted by RoagBettor:


Great; let's see what it looks like for a -1, -5 and -10 fave. Thanks.


Home fav or away fav?.. I can post it when I get home this afternoon
 
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Posted: #12
This is awesome.

Even when a home fav trails at halftime, they still end up winning 57.8% of the time. 

SU:4088-2986 (1.70, 57.8%)
ATS:2425-4515-134 (-4.58, 34.9%)
 
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Posted: #13
Quote Originally Posted by The_Extremist:



Home fav or away fav?.. I can post it when I get home this afternoon

Home fave is fine; thanks.
 
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Posted: #14
Just for fun, I checked the New Orleans Pelicans this season.

Winner 1Q -> Game Winner = 26-16 (no favorites) 61.9% W-L (very streaky)
 
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Posted: #15
I did your system from 1/10-1/17


1/10 8-1     HF 4     AF 1          Who ever wins 3     Lost
 
1/11 6-0      5                                 1

1/12 6-0      5                                 1

1/13 6-2      2           1                     3                       2

1/14 3-2      1           1                     2                       2

1/15 5-2      4           1                                              2

1/16 8-1      5                                   3                      1

1/17 2-3      1                                   1                      3


 
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Posted: #16
what kind of odds are you getting on a ML with home favorites after they already have a 1Q lead though.  80% is great, but i have to imagine most of those lines are -200 or worse depending on the size of the lead.  at 80%, you need an average line of -400 to break even.

i won't do it, but if someone wants to track this for the next week to see average live ML after 1Q for home favorites, i would check back in to see the results

 
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Posted: #17
Quote Originally Posted by kimp24:

what kind of odds are you getting on a ML with home favorites after they already have a 1Q lead though.  80% is great, but i have to imagine most of those lines are -200 or worse depending on the size of the lead.  at 80%, you need an average line of -400 to break even.

i won't do it, but if someone wants to track this for the next week to see average live ML after 1Q for home favorites, i would check back in to see the results


Right, that's why I'd like to know the % by the closing line #. But...home faves are hitting at 63.9% ATS so I wouldn't even bet the ML if it's over -120.
 
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Posted: #18
Quote Originally Posted by kimp24:

what kind of odds are you getting on a ML with home favorites after they already have a 1Q lead though.  80% is great, but i have to imagine most of those lines are -200 or worse depending on the size of the lead.  at 80%, you need an average line of -400 to break even.

i won't do it, but if someone wants to track this for the next week to see average live ML after 1Q for home favorites, i would check back in to see the results


Basically if a Home team is wins the 1st quarter but are losing at halftime or in the 3rd/4th quarter...this is where live betting is a great tool if that 80% number is accurate. 
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Posted: #19
Great stuff TE!! Nice to see you posting, keep up the great work!!
 
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Posted: #21
Not sure how reliable is data but based on yesterday result

Heat lost 1st Qtr and won as underdog
Bulls won 1st Qtr and lost as 5 point favourite
Nets won 1st Qtr and lost game (but covers ATS if u got it early)

Not very reliable 
 
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Posted: #22
What am I missing? So you're going to lay heavy juice if a favorite is winning at the end of the 1st quarter? Imagine how many GSW/Spurs etc -1000 lines are in that mix as well...
 
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Posted: #23
You guys are not seeing the benefit of this. To each his own but Just as Davemsh said, you can use this when the fav is down and you can use it to your advantage to bet on them to win.  lets say in the 3rd q.

2nd of all. This is for ONLY if the favorite wins the 1q not any team. If the Dog wins the % drops as you can see on my original posting. I have a system that I can even pick on a dog winning first quarter but I will never bet on them ML to win the game as a dog. My data is correct and anybody else that runs SDQL can double check this. 

I use my sytsem to bet on 1Q but I use the same team to win the SU too as long as my money line is under -270 (-6.5) or so spreadwise and I have teams that I play on and fade from both sides. 

Like today I took 76ers to win 1Q ML which hit and also took Celtics -240 to win 1Q which also hit. But I only bet on the Celtics to win the SU ML. 

 
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Posted: #24
Quote Originally Posted by RoagBettor:


Great; let's see what it looks like for a -1, -5 and -10 fave. Thanks.

Ok here it is.

If the line is between -1 and -4.5, Home Favorite wins 1Q:
SU:56-28 (6.90, 66.7%)
ATS:53-30-1 (3.85, 63.9%)  avg line: -3.1

if the line is between -5 to -9.5. Home Favorite wins 1Q:

SU:92-16 (10.28, 85.2%)
ATS:65-37-6 (3.26, 63.7%)  avg line: -7.0

if the line is -10 or great and Home Favoirte wins 1Q:

SU:51-5 (17.34, 91.1%)
ATS:36-20-0 (4.26, 64.3%)  avg line: -13.1
 
 
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Posted: #25
Tracking this. Thanks OP.
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