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Unbelievable Trend over 80%!!!

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Posted: #26
Quote Originally Posted by trainer4u2:

I did your system from 1/10-1/17


1/10 8-1     HF 4     AF 1          Who ever wins 3     Lost
 
1/11 6-0      5                                 1

1/12 6-0      5                                 1

1/13 6-2      2           1                     3                       2

1/14 3-2      1           1                     2                       2

1/15 5-2      4           1                                              2

1/16 8-1      5                                   3                      1

1/17 2-3      1                                   1                      3



1/10 to 1/17 Home Favorite Wins 1Q and wins the game SU:
SU:18-3 (12.76, 85.7%)
ATS:16-5-0 (5.14, 76.2%)  avg line: -7.6

1/10 to 1/17 Away Favorite Wins 1Q and wins the game SU:
SU:7-2 (8.22, 77.8%)
ATS:7-2-0 (3.44, 77.8%)  avg line: -4.8
 
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Posted: #27
You can get the Celtics live right now at even money. Down by 9 at half. 
 
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Posted: #28
Quote Originally Posted by ParlayBuster:

Just for fun, I checked the New Orleans Pelicans this season.

Winner 1Q -> Game Winner = 26-16 (no favorites) 61.9% W-L (very streaky)

yes, there are teams like Pelicans you have to fade. Pelicans are cause of some of the loses otherwise this would be in the 90%. I have system to fade and teams to plan on and they are def on the fade team
 
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Posted: #29
2015 Stats: For Home Favorite

SU:416-87 (10.39, 82.7%)
ATS:303-188-12 (2.85, 61.7%)  avg line: -7.5

2014 Stats: for Home Favorite:

SU:415-98 (9.37, 80.9%)
ATS:287-208-18 (1.96, 58.0%)  avg line: -7.4

2013 Stats for Home Favorite
SU:433-95 (9.79, 82.0%)
ATS:307-210-11 (2.50, 59.4%)  avg line: -7.3

 
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Posted: #30
Quote Originally Posted by The_Extremist:


Ok here it is.

If the line is between -1 and -4.5, Home Favorite wins 1Q:
SU:56-28 (6.90, 66.7%)
ATS:53-30-1 (3.85, 63.9%)  avg line: -3.1

if the line is between -5 to -9.5. Home Favorite wins 1Q:

SU:92-16 (10.28, 85.2%)
ATS:65-37-6 (3.26, 63.7%)  avg line: -7.0

if the line is -10 or great and Home Favoirte wins 1Q:

SU:51-5 (17.34, 91.1%)
ATS:36-20-0 (4.26, 64.3%)  avg line: -13.1

Thanks. Very impressive stats.
 
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Posted: #31
So this would call for boston to win vs the knicks today
 
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Posted: #32
Quote Originally Posted by masriballa:

So this would call for boston to win vs the knicks today

thats what I got my money on chief. You playing the odds and the odds are in our favor right now even though Boston is down. If you lose then move on to the next bet. It's not full proof and I'm not a fortune teller but odds say they should win based on trends.
 
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Posted: #33
Quote Originally Posted by The_Extremist:


thats what I got my money on chief. You playing the odds and the odds are in our favor right now even though Boston is down. If you lose then move on to the next bet. It's not full proof and I'm not a fortune teller but odds say they should win based on trends.


For sure. Thanks for the statistics. I like it. This seems like an ideal scenario for one of these plays. The ML will actually have some ROI if they win.
 
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Posted: #34
Thanks for the info and yet im still not yet decided to choose a pick for tom whose home fav and away favo..

Can you please explain lightly..sample...
If the home team is favorite to win, automatically they win in1st quarter and same in away favorite team???

Thank you,
 
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Posted: #35
Quote Originally Posted by turbojackhammer:

Thanks for the info and yet im still not yet decided to choose a pick for tom whose home fav and away favo..

Can you please explain lightly..sample...
If the home team is favorite to win, automatically they win in1st quarter and same in away favorite team???

Thank you,

No, sir. IF the Home Favorite/Away Fav Wins 1Q then have the better odds to win the game SU. Its good for betting live, if the Fav happens to fall behind. Now I do have a system that helps me pick games where I know which 1Q to bet on but that's a whole nother thread. This basically says if the stronger team comes out blasting, in another word, they will win the game SU most of the time (80%) or so to be exact this year. 

For todays' games so far it's gone 3-1 (Wizards, Pelicans, and Pistons won or about to win I should say) and Boston Lost.. Warriors should be another 1 to win 1Q 
 
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Posted: #36
Quote Originally Posted by The_Extremist:


yes, there are teams like Pelicans you have to fade. Pelicans are cause of some of the loses otherwise this would be in the 90%. I have system to fade and teams to plan on and they are def on the fade team

Thanks for sharing your work. Much appreciated. Would you mind sharing your list of 'undesirables/fade teams'? Is it only the loser teams or some high profile teams with losing ATS records since they are public faves always?
 
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Posted: #37
i would be impressed if you were able to do this, but is there a data point for home favorites winning 1Q that are trailing at any point after that?  
 
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Posted: #38
Quote Originally Posted by JBecks12:


Thanks for sharing your work. Much appreciated. Would you mind sharing your list of 'undesirables/fade teams'? Is it only the loser teams or some high profile teams with losing ATS records since they are public faves always?

I have 7 trends for 1Q so too much to list. I have Fav vs dog, home dog vs away fav, home fav vs away dog, divisional games home fav vs away dog, conference games home fav vs away dog, etc. Some I even play on the dog. 

Not at home to log in to my sdql to get  you the teams but it has taken me long hours to figure all this out. 
 
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Posted: #39
Quote Originally Posted by kimp24:

i would be impressed if you were able to do this, but is there a data point for home favorites winning 1Q that are trailing at any point after that?  

You mean  you want to know if fav is winning 1st Q and losing by 1st half what the odds (trends) are that they win SU? that I can get you,  yes
 
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Posted: #40
what do u mean favorite sir? It is higher percantge to win just sumple today okc vs gsw..gsw is 54% to win while 46% is OKC  but okc need to cover the spread...That's mean GSW win to in 1Q?? Thanks Sir.
 
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Posted: #41
Quote Originally Posted by turbojackhammer:

what do u mean favorite sir? It is higher percantge to win just sumple today okc vs gsw..gsw is 54% to win while 46% is OKC  but okc need to cover the spread...That's mean GSW win to in 1Q?? Thanks Sir.

favorite means who is -13.5 as fav to win for example
 
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Posted: #42
Win 1Q, do they need to cover the 1Q?  Thx
 
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Posted: #43
Quote Originally Posted by Cashinwong:

Win 1Q, do they need to cover the 1Q?  Thx

For the Push as Home Favorite on 1st Q:

SU:17-7 (4.75, 70.8%)
ATS:11-13-0 (-1.60, 45.8%)  avg line: -6.4

For the Push as Away Favorite on 1st Q:

SU:11-6 (4.94, 64.7%)
ATS:10-7-0 (1.15, 58.8%)  avg line: -3.8

so odds are still in your favor but drop down a little to win it SU

 
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Posted: #44
Quote Originally Posted by The_Extremist:


You mean  you want to know if fav is winning 1st Q and losing by 1st half what the odds (trends) are that they win SU? that I can get you,  yes


Yes this would be a very interesting scenario that you generate good odds. Looking forward to seeing this trend. 
Thanks for taking the time to post. 
 
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Posted: #45
Quote Originally Posted by achirico2:

Ok, so this is the system: If a HOME team is a favorite.. Play them to win the 1st QTR? What am I missing? Thanks guys! 

Come on man... What's there to not understand? this is mainly for live betting... If a fav win SU 1Q and trailing after that, you can get a better odd of them winning the game (over 80% chance of winning).. that's all it is... doesn't matter if it's a home  or away team... FAV teams only.
 
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Posted: #46
Quote Originally Posted by achirico2:

So do you take the favorite immediately after the 1Q? OR maybe wait until you can get a better value?

I would say when they are trailing so you can get a better value. Extreme should be able to explain to you more clearly...

 
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Posted: #47
Quote Originally Posted by tan-the-man:


Come on man... What's there to not understand? this is mainly for live betting... If a fav win SU 1Q and trailing after that, you can get a better odd of them winning the game (over 80% chance of winning).. that's all it is... doesn't matter if it's a home  or away team... FAV teams only.

 
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Posted: #48
Here it is
 
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Posted: #49
to get past lines you can go to sportsbookreview.com for all lines and past spreads.

I did the odds and it doesn't work if the team is behind by half time. the odds are just over 50%.

This just shows that if a Home Favorite wins 1Q they will 80% of the time win the Game SU.

There are 43 games that Home favorite was up after 1Q but behind 1st Half. 22 times they won as SU and 21 Times they lost so it's almost 50/50. This is ONLY if they fall behind, so wouldn't work for live betting if they are behind because you get only 50% chance. By 3rd quarter the % falls even lower. So this would be only good to bet when team is up after 1st quarter, or anytime after that. For a day lets say that youre down and need to get a bet in to recover some money it gives you 80% odds to win as SU.
 
 
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Posted: #50
or bet on the spread because if they win 1Q you are still lookin at 64% to cover the spread as Home fav. of course you can raise that percentage higher by fading and playing on certain teams and that's what I try to do. you can still bet on the SU but juice might be a bit high. Just a tid bit of info and trend thought was very interesting.
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