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Unbelievable Trend over 80%!!!

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Posted: #51
Quote Originally Posted by The_Extremist:

to get past lines you can go to sportsbookreview.com for all lines and past spreads.

I did the odds and it doesn't work if the team is behind by half time. the odds are just over 50%.

This just shows that if a Home Favorite wins 1Q they will 80% of the time win the Game SU.

There are 43 games that Home favorite was up after 1Q but behind 1st Half. 22 times they won as SU and 21 Times they lost so it's almost 50/50. This is ONLY if they fall behind, so wouldn't work for live betting if they are behind because you get only 50% chance. By 3rd quarter the % falls even lower. So this would be only good to bet when team is up after 1st quarter, or anytime after that. For a day lets say that youre down and need to get a bet in to recover some money it gives you 80% odds to win as SU.

My bad. I misread this.  
 
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Posted: #52
The problem is it's impossible to make every "system" bet for the fave to cover the spread, since the spread will usually be higher once the favorite wins the 1Q, particularly for smaller closing lines. You can't buy points on a Live bet so how are you going to bet ATS when you can't get the original closing line? You can't unless you want to bet the ML and pay the high juice.
 
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Posted: #53
Quote Originally Posted by achirico2:

Ok, so this is the system: If a HOME team is a favorite.. Play them to win the 1st QTR? What am I missing? Thanks guys! 


Last 7 Days (W-L-T)
1/12 - 2-0
1/13 - 3-2
1/14 - 1-3
1/15 - 2-0-1
1/16 - 6-0-1
1/17 - 1-1-1
1/18 - 5-3

TOTAL: 20-9-3 .625
 
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Posted: #54
Gl
 
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Posted: #55
What's your colllege system or picks?
 
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Posted: #56
Quote Originally Posted by The_Extremist:

to get past lines you can go to sportsbookreview.com for all lines and past spreads.

I did the odds and it doesn't work if the team is behind by half time. the odds are just over 50%.

This just shows that if a Home Favorite wins 1Q they will 80% of the time win the Game SU.

There are 43 games that Home favorite was up after 1Q but behind 1st Half. 22 times they won as SU and 21 Times they lost so it's almost 50/50. This is ONLY if they fall behind, so wouldn't work for live betting if they are behind because you get only 50% chance. By 3rd quarter the % falls even lower. So this would be only good to bet when team is up after 1st quarter, or anytime after that. For a day lets say that youre down and need to get a bet in to recover some money it gives you 80% odds to win as SU.


I think the value here is to bet the underdog at halftime if the favorite won the 1Q and trailing at the half. There's a good chance the underdog will still have odds greater than +100 with a 50% of winning the game. Long term this makes money.

Can you extend the analysis to include the 2015 and 2014 season to see if the trend is still 50%?

thanks
 
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Posted: #57
Quote Originally Posted by ParlayBuster:



Last 7 Days (W-L-T)
1/12 - 2-0
1/13 - 3-2
1/14 - 1-3
1/15 - 2-0-1
1/16 - 6-0-1
1/17 - 1-1-1
1/18 - 5-3

TOTAL: 20-9-3 .625


thise ststs are wrong. if home fav wins  1q and wins su thats 1-0. if they win 1q and lose su thats 0-1.if fav doesnt win 1q its not a play. sdql is down right now buti will post the stats fir week later
 
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Posted: #58
Quote Originally Posted by d_opie:



I think the value here is to bet the underdog at halftime if the favorite won the 1Q and trailing at the half. There's a good chance the underdog will still have odds greater than +100 with a 50% of winning the game. Long term this makes money.

Can you extend the analysis to include the 2015 and 2014 season to see if the trend is still 50%?

yes sure

thanks
 
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Posted: #59
@D_opie: I did 2014 and 2015 and they are about the same 50-52% but.. if the home fav wins 1Q but behind half time...here's the kicker though..

If Home Favorite wins 1st q and is also up by half time:

SU:176-29 (12.62, 85.9%)
ATS:141-59-5 (5.60, 70.5%

they are covering and winning at a astonishing rate so if you see a line favoring the dog too much you can take advantage of this. These stats are for this season so far. 
 
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Posted: #60
Stats between 1/12 and 1/18 when Home Favorite won 1Q and Won SU & ATS are:

SU:16-5 (11.52, 76.2%)
ATS:15-6-0 (4.29, 71.4%)  avg line: -7.2
 
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Posted: #61
Quote Originally Posted by The_Extremist:



thise ststs are wrong. if home fav wins  1q and wins su thats 1-0. if they win 1q and lose su thats 0-1.if fav doesnt win 1q its not a play. sdql is down right now buti will post the stats fir week later


It took me awhile, but NOW I get it. Only 1Q WINS count.
 
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Posted: #62
it's very interesting. Can you tell, The_Extremist, did the trend work for only this year, or is it worked previous season ?
thank you for pointing that trend out
 
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Posted: #63
I took Min using this system. An away favorite winning after the 1Q is.

as Away favorite: 78.5% if they win 1st Q
SU: 84-23 78.5%
ATS 65-41-1 61.3%

These pertcentages are from 01/18
 
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Posted: #64
Quote Originally Posted by Iroquois:

it's very interesting. Can you tell, The_Extremist, did the trend work for only this year, or is it worked previous season ?
thank you for pointing that trend out

yes, I have the stats for 2014-2015 posted in the 1st page of the thread. they are even higher
 
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Posted: #65
Thanks for the trend ex
 
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Posted: #66
Quote Originally Posted by DrKnoNothing:

Thanks for the trend ex


you're welcome. Glad you moved on it and made some money. Its a great way to bet on a fav that's a pickem or -1 or so after 1q
 
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Posted: #67
Extremist I know u had stated college basketball u had better results what's your trend for that?
 
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Posted: #68
without even reading past the first few posts I can confidently say this information is useless 

Sorry to spoil the party and not trying to be "that guy" that shuts others down, but bookmakers are pretty spot on with their odds, and as many have pointed out, odds will change in-game based on the circumstance.

I see 2 obvious errors in judgement here:

1. You think "oh, when a favourite wins the first quarter I will bet on them" - but as many have pointed out, their odds will be even worse than when the game started.
2. You think "oh, the favourite won the first quarter, but is now down at 3 quarter time, so they are good value" - well sorry buddy, but this will probably fall under the losing 20%.

There's no logical way to use this information to make a profit. All it shows us is the very obvious notion that when the better team is leading after 1 quarter, they usually win the game... pretty obvious stuff
 
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Posted: #69

Problem is I don't think this knowledge is actually profitable.  My experience with live betting is that they juice up the favs on the moneyline during the game - especially if they're winning.  If you have a 7 point home fav up 6 after the first quarter, they will be like -380 or something.  Compare that to the 80% win rate and you don't win much.

I mean I guess there is some value for a 2 point fav up just a couple points?  Good stat to know.  I don't do a lot of live betting though. 

 
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Posted: #70
Quote Originally Posted by alabamam25:

Extremist I know u had stated college basketball u had better results what's your trend for that?

I don't use SDQL on CBB bro. I have a formula that I use based on pace and efficiencies that gives me roughly 66% winners ATS but I can't stand dealing with CBB. I like NBA
 
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Posted: #71
here some stats for you .. 2016

Favorites win 71.6% of the time SU
Home Favorites win 73.1% of the time SU

by filtering and by using SDQL, which I have, I can get fade teams and narrow down which teams win SU more and raise the SU to higher percentage and by working backwards, if we know Home Favorite wins 1Q they win 82.7% of the time straight up then if it's the same thing backwards, if they win SU then they win 1Q SU. This way if you want to bet a team straight up and they are -500 Full game, in 1st Q you can bet them for -200 or so .. basically getting the same results but at the fraction of the juice

BTW... don't bet on a underdog on the 1Q. Your chances are around 44% to win. Always bet on the favorite and even more so on the Home favorite. Which I have posted those odds in the top of this thread. 
 
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Posted: #72
Extremist thanks for the info. I see the value in your hard work. Thursday night NBA your trend went 3-0. Heat, Wizards, and Timberwolves worked out. Friday Pelicans got smoked but I see that this team is an exception to the rule. I will remember to fade them, I wish I saw this because Brooklyn nets was a +$487 ML second half. That would've been sweet! Keep up the good work
 
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Posted: #73
hey what teams do your fade
 
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Posted: #74
Quote Originally Posted by The_Extremist:

to get past lines you can go to sportsbookreview.com for all lines and past spreads.

I did the odds and it doesn't work if the team is behind by half time. the odds are just over 50%.

This just shows that if a Home Favorite wins 1Q they will 80% of the time win the Game SU.

There are 43 games that Home favorite was up after 1Q but behind 1st Half. 22 times they won as SU and 21 Times they lost so it's almost 50/50. This is ONLY if they fall behind, so wouldn't work for live betting if they are behind because you get only 50% chance. By 3rd quarter the % falls even lower. So this would be only good to bet when team is up after 1st quarter, or anytime after that. For a day lets say that youre down and need to get a bet in to recover some money it gives you 80% odds to win as SU.
if you are winning ML dogs at 50%, that would be profitable, wouldn't it?
 
 
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Posted: #75
Used this system tonight when Portland fell behind by 1 early in the 4Q. They won 1Q and led at HT. Took the ML at + odds. This seems to be the ideal scenario for this system.
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