Posted:
#1
I already did a mini writeup for this game but I'll add some more thoughts. So far, home teams down 0-2 in the playoffs are 0-3. Celts, Bucks and Pelicans all lost last night. But that was to be expected, since the teams at the bottom are weak. Everyone has been saying how the West is ultra-competitive but all the series there (except for Clippers/Spurs) seem to be a mismatch, or are they? The Blazers just don't match up with the Grizz (never have). The Warriors got a bit lucky last night, otherwise that series would be 2-1. And the Mavs have been keeping contact with the Rockets (for most of their games) despite all the drama and poor performance.
Vegas set the line for this game at -1.5 before Parsons and Rondo were officially out. Since then, the public has pounded the Rockets but the line has only moved half a point. It is currently at -1. That tells me that Vegas thinks there is a good chance the Mavs take this game. And I agree. First off, I'll mention the things Mavs backers have to worry about:
1) Jason Terry. I don't think I need to explain this one.
2) The refs. For whatever reason, the NBA didn't give us very friendly refs (though they are not bad). Of course, we won't know which way the whistles will go until the game starts but if Harden is getting to the foul line (early and often), that won't be a good sign.
Ok, so here is what we do have going for us:
1) Mavs are the more desperate team, trying to salvage their season. Even the lowly Bucks, Celtics and Pelicans were able to make a game of it last night, and the Bucks and Pelicans almost won. The Mavs have better coaching than those teams and better (even though older) players with a ton of playoff experience.
2) The Rondo effect. As has been mentioned, when teams get rid of a cancerous player (think Josh Smith with Detroit this year), there is an immediate bounce/boost in performance. Without getting into the psychological reasons for this, I will say that the Celtics improved when they got rid of Rondo. Their play also improved (at least in the beginning) when Rondo got hurt a couple of years ago (during the regular season) when KG and Pierce were still on the team. We also know that Dallas was playing better before Rondo got there and has also played better when he was on the bench.
3) The refs. Yes, I know I said that the refs were not exactly ideal but they also know the situation here. If the Mavs lose here, they likely get swept and that's yet another series with no drama. In fact, the NBA is potentially looking at almost all their series ending in 4 games, while we wait around for the Spurs/Clippers series to conclude. Can you imagine, after this weekend, the only thing on the air might be Clippers vs Spurs, so much for 40 games in 40 nights. That would not make ESPN or TNT very happy.
4) Mavs coming off a humiliating loss where D Howard and Josh Smith were punking them. I don't care how bad of a team you are, just the sight of those two front-runners doing what they did should make your blood boil.
5) The Rockets know this series is practically over (especially with all the drama in Dallas and no Parson) and as we saw with the Bulls and Warriors last night, it is very difficult for teams to keep their focus (in that 3rd game) against teams that they have by the balls.
6) If you look at what this Mavs team did to the powerhouse Spurs last year (with about the same quality of players, granted they had better chemistry) then you'll see why I'm backing them in this spot.
Adding 2 more units to the 5 I already have on them.
0
Just don't tell my wife.
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