So we have a game against the Nets, the last home game being a debacle and now the Knicks are back home in front of their fans, and Phil in attendance. And we have a playoff situation that requires more urgency than you think (coaches should have conveyed such a thing to the players, but really, there is only time for wins here). You don't cap a game solely on these things.
But these are things that no program or system can account for. Numbers are blind. ATS trends have no intuitive memory or gauge of the state of the team. Cappers CAN account for these things and I am telling you that the 'forces' both internal and external with regard to the psychological state of the Knicks will propel them to victory in this spot.
Now that we have discussed the forces off the court in a macro-psychological sense, what has gone on, on the court?
Well since the Knicks were thrashed by the Suns, I was stunned to see a line of -7 against the Warriors.
Even without Lee and Bogut, Oracle Arena is a VERY tough spot to win in for a team like the Knicks against a Warrior team that toyed with them on their home court last time out. The Knicks lost by 23 points and were mired in an 8 game losing streak.
Remember that Knicks team? I do. You couldn't bet on them. They were dunking game winning baskets off their head.
Now they travel out west to face the Warriors again and the books made the Warriors lay 7 (6.5 in some spots)!
Do you want to know how much respect Vegas is giving them now?
The Warriors laid 6 when they went to MSG.
The Knicks are so improved (even with all their crazy line movement), that Vegas barely adjusted the line by a single point when the Warriors went from MSG to their home court. A typical line move would be SIX POINTS all things being equal.
Well guess what happened in that game? The spread didn't matter and the Knicks won SU by 5.
That was an incredibly gutsy win.
I continually refer to a 'jumping off point' with teams, that is, a moment where teams transform into something higher and more purposeful in their quest for the playoffs or seeding in the playoffs. It happened with the Cavs when they came back from 15 against the Knicks. They have won 3 of 4 since that win.
The Knicks also appear to have had a 'jumping off point'. They went on a 12-0 run to end the second quarter and the Warriors never took the lead again.
That shocked me and like the Cavs, in that run EVERYTHING was falling. They were on another level. When they came out for the second half, you saw the confidence level maintained.
In a tie game with 8 minutes left in the fourth, they took the lead back and held it. Tied again with 2 minutes, they took the lead back and held it. That is incredibly hard to do on a west coast trip, in rockin' Oracle, against a team like the Warriors who went small and had the Knicks running up and down the court like maniacs, with the one thing the Knicks can't defend...the 3 looming from every shot from the Splash Brothers.
Well they defended it MUCH better than in recent memory and although threes some fell late from Curry, many others didn't because the Knicks perimeter defense was MUCH better than I've seen all season. I just rewatched the game and they moved the balltremendously well. The rotations were crisp as were the defensive switches.
And I'd also like to note that Carmelo had a very poor game shooting-wise. Also, Melo had not 1, not 2, but THREE fouls MIDWAY through the second quarter.
Now which one of you here would have in-game bet THE KNICKS when Melo, their star, their golden boy, picked up his third foul with 6 minutes left in the second quarter? We know how many...virtually none except Knicks homers who still have a wrinkled Charles Oakley jersey in their closet.
The next night, on a b2b, they easily dispatched the Jazz in a business-as-usual win, a sign of a team that knows it's mission and is confident in it's route.