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*** Washington Wizards @ Miami Heat ***

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Posted: #26
hmm interesting, of all the qrt you go for first.  Wiz are dominating 1qrt they win and cover the line almost every time.  That is one of the truths this season you can rely on, wiz cover first qrts.  Just wondering why you would take points in first qrt when that is wiz strongest time.
  They are also much better team on the road than at home.
???????????????????????
 
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Posted: #27
Quote Originally Posted by devilownsme:

hmm interesting, of all the qrt you go for first.  Wiz are dominating 1qrt they win and cover the line almost every time.  That is one of the truths this season you can rely on, wiz cover first qrts.  Just wondering why you would take points in first qrt when that is wiz strongest time.
  They are also much better team on the road than at home.
???????????????????????

Great questions
 
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Posted: #28

Quote Originally Posted by devilownsme:

hmm interesting, of all the qrt you go for first.  Wiz are dominating 1qrt they win and cover the line almost every time.  That is one of the truths this season you can rely on, wiz cover first qrts.  Just wondering why you would take points in first qrt when that is wiz strongest time.
  They are also much better team on the road than at home.
???????????????????????

This is more of a play on the Heat off consecutive losses now facing a team that embarassed them by 17 in there last matchup. Teams with a winning percentage of 50% or higher in this situation are winning the 1Q by an average score of 29.4 to 23. Teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher (Heat) in this situation: 29.5 to 19 after 1Q.

Reason it's only 1 unit is because Wizards are so good in the 1Q.

 
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Posted: #29
Good luck bro 
 
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Posted: #30
https://www.hoopsstats.com/basketball/fantasy/nba/miami-heat/team/quarters/14/15/1
 
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Posted: #31
Quote Originally Posted by LeagueCapper:

This is more of a play on the Heat off consecutive losses now facing a team that embarassed them by 17 in there last matchup. Teams with a winning percentage of 50% or higher in this situation are winning the 1Q by an average score of 29.4 to 23. Teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher (Heat) in this situation: 29.5 to 19 after 1Q.

Reason it's only 1 unit is because Wizards are so good in the 1Q.


Hey thanks for the posts/picks. Great stuff GOOD LUCK 
 
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Posted: #32
i like your pick lc
but  are you worried about the wiz and their strong starts?
 
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Posted: #33
wait someone already asked that
 
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Posted: #34
that other guy messed me up too....
 
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Posted: #35
well garbage i tailed and took under on nets/raptors. oh well i bought 2 points and took it at 199.5 so bol to me lol
 
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Posted: #36
Sorry dolphins, my bad on that. Will be more careful. Hopefully still hits for ya but you can always buy out and take the opposite side for same amount
 
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Posted: #37
LC
 
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Posted: #38
Quote Originally Posted by LeagueCapper:

Washington Wizards @ Miami Heat

Quality teams playing a home game off 2 straight losses - playing another quality team they lost to in the previous matchup - has gone under 75% of all games (by an average of 10.09 points) since 2010 when posting a total above 202.

If said team lost the last match-up by 15+ points, they win the 1Q by an average of 6.3 points during these games as well.

The Heat are playing a home game after 2 straight losses and facing a Wizards team that beat them by 17 in the previous matchup. We take the under, and Heat 1Q.

  • Heat/Wizards Under 204 (2x)
  • Heat -2.5 1Q (1x)

Season YTD: +49.55 Units
5+ Unit Plays: 14-4 


Let's get it LC!!! 

 
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Posted: #39
Quote Originally Posted by LeagueCapper:

Correct but not entirely.

SU: 15-3 (4.22, 83.3%)
ATS: 2-16-0 (-5.92, 11.1%)   avg line: -10.1

There 2-16 ATS in these situations, but 2-2 ATS in revenge games. Making you guessed it, 0-14 ATS in non-revenge games. Nice find, will note this for future games but not applicable for today.

SU: 11-3 (2.93, 78.6%)
ATS: 0-14-0 (-7.96, 0.0%)   avg line: -10.9


Hi LC,

Is it possible to provide which site/link you get this data from?
 
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Posted: #40
with you on the wiz/heat under 
 
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Posted: #41
Hey LC

I remember about 1 month ago you posted that teams at home revenging a +25 point loss on the road against the same team in the same season and are then dogs at home or something very similar to that was 24-0 ATS.

Does that apply to the Hawks @ Jazz? Hawks pumped the Jazz by 33 in Atlanta and now the Jazz are +2 dogs at home.
 
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Posted: #42
Quote Originally Posted by LeagueCapper:

Sorry dolphins, my bad on that. Will be more careful. Hopefully still hits for ya but you can always buy out and take the opposite side for same amount
     no worries bro, il just ride it out. plus i parlayed it with heat/wiz under
 
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Posted: #43
Quote Originally Posted by AussieDownUnder:

Hey LC

I remember about 1 month ago you posted that teams at home revenging a +25 point loss on the road against the same team in the same season and are then dogs at home or something very similar to that was 24-0 ATS.

Does that apply to the Hawks @ Jazz? Hawks pumped the Jazz by 33 in Atlanta and now the Jazz are +2 dogs at home.

Your missing a parameter, said team must be off a 15+ point loss as a favorite. Jazz weren't embarassed in a game they were expected to win last

 
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Posted: #44
there is someone going on rant that LeagueCapper is banned?  Is this a fact?
 
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Posted: #45
 
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Posted: #46

Strong systems favoring the Hawks today however it is there 3rd road game in 4 nights in the high altitude of Utah, plus there not a great road team. Still debating on this one but will most likely be adding them

 
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Posted: #47
Good luck LC
 
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Posted: #48
Quote Originally Posted by LeagueCapper:

Correct but not entirely.

SU: 15-3 (4.22, 83.3%)
ATS: 2-16-0 (-5.92, 11.1%)   avg line: -10.1

There 2-16 ATS in these situations, but 2-2 ATS in revenge games. Making you guessed it, 0-14 ATS in non-revenge games. Nice find, will note this for future games but not applicable for today.

SU: 11-3 (2.93, 78.6%)
ATS: 0-14-0 (-7.96, 0.0%)   avg line: -10.9



LC, please help me to understand.

wouldn't the situation he is referring to be.

team=Heat and p:A and pp:A and ppp:A and H?


I get totally different results.  What am I missing?

thanks
 
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Posted: #49
Quote Originally Posted by Make-It-Rain:



LC, please help me to understand.

wouldn't the situation he is referring to be.

team=Heat and p:A and pp:A and ppp:A and H?


I get totally different results.  What am I missing?

thanks

Feel free to add me and PM
 
 
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Posted: #50
Cash that first quarter.  Thank you LC 
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