Posted:
#1
2016: 2-1
You're at a poker table sitting with only professionals with $100K+ in front of you. The game is pot-limit with $400 and $800 blinds. Someone raises to $2K
You are dealt the best hand in poker: Pocket Aces.
What do you do?
This guy...folded his hand preflop
:
:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6nwCOOnA4vk
There are some complex intricacies as to why he folded but the fact remains that he is the only person who has ever intentionally folded pocket aces preflop on live TV, and there likely will never be another.
He folded out of fear.
Folks, we can't sit here and let fear rule our capping or our betting.
We all fear the Warriors if we want to fade them. They can obliterate any team and any spread in the bat of the eyelash.
Having said that, they are not unbeatable as they have lost in key spots this year and one spot is very significant with regard to this game. I will get to that
Their spreads are not unbeatable.
They are 32-23-1 this year. That's 62%. For every 62 covers, they do not cover 38 times. That's not even covering 2 out of 3 games. I know it seems like they cover every game but they do not. The numbers beat this out.
So first let's talk about why this game in this spot is so valuable to us to back the dog.
It all goes back to Capping 101. 90% of you reading this know what I am about to say, but after seeing it in writing, it should become more impactful.
1. This is the 7th game of a 7 game road trip.
With a few extreme exceptions, this is as long a road trip as you will ever see in the NBA. It stretches all the way back to February 10th.
They are 5-1 on this road. Now they get the toughest matchup of all the games at the tail end of this massive road swing against a team with 2 of the 5 best players in the league.
We all say it: this is a star driven league. Only one of the greatest dynasties of all-time deviates from the star formula, and that is the Spurs. But even Leonard is a star. Duncan/Parker (and Manu to a degree) are all-time legends. So there is even an argument against their winning formula allegedly not using stars.
When you have not one but two of the elite players in the league backing your bet at home at the end of the longest of long road trips for the opponent, even if it is the Warriors, you have something VERY powerful.
When you have not one but two of the elite players in the league backing your bet at home at the end of the longest of long road trips for the opponent, even if it is the Warriors, you have something VERY powerful.
These are 2 of the top 7 scorers in the league, an enviable 1-2 punch any team but the Warriors and Spurs would salivate to have. This is also a team that averages 110 a game, an average only behind one team...the Warriors.
Yes, I know what the Warriors have and I know what that team is and we all know their record, but on the other side of the ball look at what you get at home, with the other team off a 17 day road trip flying all over the country, and, and this is important, you are still an UNDERDOG. The Warriors are not going to run the table till the end of the season folks. Where can their losses come if not here. And amazingly, Vegas says we don't even have to win with the spread.
0
thanks for sharing
Hot Forum Topics
