Posted:
#3076
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
Fubah's view: Saints @RAMS Both teams 7 - 7. But that is deceptive! A lot of people put too much stock in those w/L records and in this case think this is an even game. Well, it might very well turn out that way. Lucky breaks can swing things sideways in a hurry and upset the best laid plans.But the way I approach any game is too consider my chances ASSUMING roughly even breaks on each side - and in that even which is the better team. I judge that by things like pt diff, the venues they played and WHO they played, and the venue tonight. ALL STATS must be judged in light of WHO THEY PLAYED to achieve them -- including their W/L record.So let's look:Saints played bottom rated teams a whopping 7 times....and padded their W/L with 6 wins from that. They actually LOST one of those and narrowly escaped 2 others. But equally important is: How many times did they face TOP TIER teams (single digit rated)? Only one. And they lost to Detroit at home....Thus, their 7 wins are padded by winning 6 against bottom dwellers, and escaped more than 7 losses by only facing ONE top tier squad! Compare that to Rams (who are 100% healthy now btw!!)Rams only got to pad their WIN total playing just 3 bottom dwellers - but won all 3 by at least 8+ pts -- never coming close to actually losing to them, which Saints did ONCE and almost 2 more times!Further, the Rams loss column is dominated by being forced to face not just ONE top tier squad like the fortunate Saints, but FIVE! They managed to win one of those and took Ravens to OT in another!In short, RAMS faced a far tougher SoS than Saints but achieved the same 7 wins!And they are at HOME! Venue matters! Rams are better at home! Rams have looked GOOD in their recent 5 games - winning 4 and taking Ravens to OT in the other (losing on a fluky kick return TD)Saints are feeling comfortable coming off 3 consecutive home games - winning the recent 2 but against weakass teams (Carolina and Giants) Now they hit the road FINALLY.They lost their last 2 road games to mediocre opps by at least 8 pts each....Rams are easily better than those two teams....But like I always say NOTHING is GUARANTEED. Breaks can quickly flip the game, no doubt... Fubah's WEEK 16:from PinnacleRams -198 *Best Bet 3uRams -1.0 -188 *Best Bet 2u Rams -1.5 -177
Fubah's view: Saints @RAMS Both teams 7 - 7. But that is deceptive! A lot of people put too much stock in those w/L records and in this case think this is an even game. Well, it might very well turn out that way. Lucky breaks can swing things sideways in a hurry and upset the best laid plans.But the way I approach any game is too consider my chances ASSUMING roughly even breaks on each side - and in that even which is the better team. I judge that by things like pt diff, the venues they played and WHO they played, and the venue tonight. ALL STATS must be judged in light of WHO THEY PLAYED to achieve them -- including their W/L record.So let's look:Saints played bottom rated teams a whopping 7 times....and padded their W/L with 6 wins from that. They actually LOST one of those and narrowly escaped 2 others. But equally important is: How many times did they face TOP TIER teams (single digit rated)? Only one. And they lost to Detroit at home....Thus, their 7 wins are padded by winning 6 against bottom dwellers, and escaped more than 7 losses by only facing ONE top tier squad! Compare that to Rams (who are 100% healthy now btw!!)Rams only got to pad their WIN total playing just 3 bottom dwellers - but won all 3 by at least 8+ pts -- never coming close to actually losing to them, which Saints did ONCE and almost 2 more times!Further, the Rams loss column is dominated by being forced to face not just ONE top tier squad like the fortunate Saints, but FIVE! They managed to win one of those and took Ravens to OT in another!In short, RAMS faced a far tougher SoS than Saints but achieved the same 7 wins!And they are at HOME! Venue matters! Rams are better at home! Rams have looked GOOD in their recent 5 games - winning 4 and taking Ravens to OT in the other (losing on a fluky kick return TD)Saints are feeling comfortable coming off 3 consecutive home games - winning the recent 2 but against weakass teams (Carolina and Giants) Now they hit the road FINALLY.They lost their last 2 road games to mediocre opps by at least 8 pts each....Rams are easily better than those two teams....But like I always say NOTHING is GUARANTEED. Breaks can quickly flip the game, no doubt... Fubah's WEEK 16:from PinnacleRams -198 *Best Bet 3uRams -1.0 -188 *Best Bet 2u Rams -1.5 -177
I EXPECT Higbee will have a productive night against that Saints D.
And Williams. And Cooper.
1
Coin flipper if Lawrence plays. Leaning Bucs if not....
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