Well that sucked...........A good weekend completely spoiled by three events:
1/ (2 lost bets) TEXANS going for the win, when a LOSS would give them #1 draft pick! WTF?? Coach immediately fired.
2/ EAGLES up comfortably 19 - 3 four minutes into the 4th Q then allow 2 late TDs to win only by 6. Naturally I had bought points own to -6.5 (huge juice loss)
3/ GREEN BAY WTF??? Must win, in Lambeau, Aaron Rogers, playing team that just learned they are knocked out of the playoffs. Two net turnovers for Detroit, one at the GB 31, the other at the Lions 15. (huge juice losses)
I don't regret making a hedge bet on RAMS and losing it as it was a sound play given the situation.
2
Well that sucked...........A good weekend completely spoiled by three events:
1/ (2 lost bets) TEXANS going for the win, when a LOSS would give them #1 draft pick! WTF?? Coach immediately fired.
2/ EAGLES up comfortably 19 - 3 four minutes into the 4th Q then allow 2 late TDs to win only by 6. Naturally I had bought points own to -6.5 (huge juice loss)
3/ GREEN BAY WTF??? Must win, in Lambeau, Aaron Rogers, playing team that just learned they are knocked out of the playoffs. Two net turnovers for Detroit, one at the GB 31, the other at the Lions 15. (huge juice losses)
I don't regret making a hedge bet on RAMS and losing it as it was a sound play given the situation.
Loss Raiders +16.5 -222 WJaguars -270 *Best Bet W LiveBet #2, Jaguars -145 *Best Bet Loss COLTS -1.5-124 *BB Loss COLTS -140 *BB WBENGALS -3.5-350 *Best Bet WBENGALS -395 1stH *Best Bet W BENGALS -5 -256 WDOLPHINS -198 WBILLS -2.5-315 *Best Bet WBILLS -370 *Best Bet WHOUSTON -102 (hedge bet) W NINERS -4.5 -363 *Best Bet WSEAHAWKS -230 Loss EAGLES -6.5 -332 *BB Loss RAMS -170 (hedge bet) Loss PACKERS -3 -153 Loss PACKERS -260 *BB ------------------------------------------ = 11 - 7 (losing on juice) (7 - 4 *Best Bets)
YTD 84 - 38 to end regular season <--
3
My Week 18 "disaster"
Loss Raiders +16.5 -222 WJaguars -270 *Best Bet W LiveBet #2, Jaguars -145 *Best Bet Loss COLTS -1.5-124 *BB Loss COLTS -140 *BB WBENGALS -3.5-350 *Best Bet WBENGALS -395 1stH *Best Bet W BENGALS -5 -256 WDOLPHINS -198 WBILLS -2.5-315 *Best Bet WBILLS -370 *Best Bet WHOUSTON -102 (hedge bet) W NINERS -4.5 -363 *Best Bet WSEAHAWKS -230 Loss EAGLES -6.5 -332 *BB Loss RAMS -170 (hedge bet) Loss PACKERS -3 -153 Loss PACKERS -260 *BB ------------------------------------------ = 11 - 7 (losing on juice) (7 - 4 *Best Bets)
Both bottom dwellers and elminated. Texans are the worse of the two, although playing inspired in recent weeks. However, TEXANS can assure themselves of the #1 draft pick GUARANTEED if they just find a way to LOSE this game. Yes, COLTS would like to lose too and improve their draft position, but that's a very stressful undertaking when playing in front of home town fans who paid big bucks to attend in hopes of seeing their homies end the season on a win. Easier for the TEXANS to play well but "accidentally" lose in the end on the road. It's otherwise a dead even matchup as I see it, except for that. Personally I think Houston would win the boneheads of the year award if they win this game. That #1 pick can be incredibly valuable! Not necessarily in a given player but they could also auction off that top pick to the highest bidder and make an awesome deal!!!
IF THEY LOSE THE GAME!! They simply cannot count on Chicago defeating Minnesota today, when the Bears too are hoping to lose against a vastly superior opponent that wants the win!
Sure, there's always a chance this one could backfire on me! Anything can happen in football, and usually does.
Did anyone else see what happened here?
I put at risk 2 bets with plenty of juice by trying to defy my dreaded curse about doing writeups on my bets.....and look what happened!..........yet again
3
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
The "TANK Bowl"
COLTS -1.5-124 *BB
COLTS -140 *BB
Both bottom dwellers and elminated. Texans are the worse of the two, although playing inspired in recent weeks. However, TEXANS can assure themselves of the #1 draft pick GUARANTEED if they just find a way to LOSE this game. Yes, COLTS would like to lose too and improve their draft position, but that's a very stressful undertaking when playing in front of home town fans who paid big bucks to attend in hopes of seeing their homies end the season on a win. Easier for the TEXANS to play well but "accidentally" lose in the end on the road. It's otherwise a dead even matchup as I see it, except for that. Personally I think Houston would win the boneheads of the year award if they win this game. That #1 pick can be incredibly valuable! Not necessarily in a given player but they could also auction off that top pick to the highest bidder and make an awesome deal!!!
IF THEY LOSE THE GAME!! They simply cannot count on Chicago defeating Minnesota today, when the Bears too are hoping to lose against a vastly superior opponent that wants the win!
Sure, there's always a chance this one could backfire on me! Anything can happen in football, and usually does.
Did anyone else see what happened here?
I put at risk 2 bets with plenty of juice by trying to defy my dreaded curse about doing writeups on my bets.....and look what happened!..........yet again
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: The "TANK Bowl" COLTS -1.5-124 *BB COLTS -140 *BB Both bottom dwellers and elminated. Texans are the worse of the two, although playing inspired in recent weeks. However, TEXANS can assure themselves of the #1 draft pick GUARANTEED if they just find a way to LOSE this game. Yes, COLTS would like to lose too and improve their draft position, but that's a very stressful undertaking when playing in front of home town fans who paid big bucks to attend in hopes of seeing their homies end the season on a win. Easier for the TEXANS to play well but "accidentally" lose in the end on the road. It's otherwise a dead even matchup as I see it, except for that. Personally I think Houston would win the boneheads of the year award if they win this game. That #1 pick can be incredibly valuable! Not necessarily in a given player but they could also auction off that top pick to the highest bidder and make an awesome deal!!! IF THEY LOSE THE GAME!! They simply cannot count on Chicago defeating Minnesota today, when the Bears too are hoping to lose against a vastly superior opponent that wants the win! Sure, there's always a chance this one could backfire on me! Anything can happen in football, and usually does. Did anyone else see what happened here? I put at risk 2 bets with plenty of juice by trying to defy my dreaded curse about doing writeups on my bets.....and look what happened!..........yet again
Wildcard: NINERS -470 *BB
3
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: The "TANK Bowl" COLTS -1.5-124 *BB COLTS -140 *BB Both bottom dwellers and elminated. Texans are the worse of the two, although playing inspired in recent weeks. However, TEXANS can assure themselves of the #1 draft pick GUARANTEED if they just find a way to LOSE this game. Yes, COLTS would like to lose too and improve their draft position, but that's a very stressful undertaking when playing in front of home town fans who paid big bucks to attend in hopes of seeing their homies end the season on a win. Easier for the TEXANS to play well but "accidentally" lose in the end on the road. It's otherwise a dead even matchup as I see it, except for that. Personally I think Houston would win the boneheads of the year award if they win this game. That #1 pick can be incredibly valuable! Not necessarily in a given player but they could also auction off that top pick to the highest bidder and make an awesome deal!!! IF THEY LOSE THE GAME!! They simply cannot count on Chicago defeating Minnesota today, when the Bears too are hoping to lose against a vastly superior opponent that wants the win! Sure, there's always a chance this one could backfire on me! Anything can happen in football, and usually does. Did anyone else see what happened here? I put at risk 2 bets with plenty of juice by trying to defy my dreaded curse about doing writeups on my bets.....and look what happened!..........yet again
YTD 84 - 38 to end regular season <--- 62 - 28 FAVS overall 56 - 26 on Home Favs 6 - 2 on Away Favs 22 - 10 DOGS overall 18 - 7 on Home Dogs 4 - 3 on Away Dogs
YTD 84 - 38 to end regular season <---
11 - 5 National Spotlight evening games on Sat, Sun, Mon
There are 3 such EVENING matches this wildcard weekend, and on my capping sheets I have a selection circled in all 3.
2
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
YTD 84 - 38 to end regular season <--- 62 - 28 FAVS overall 56 - 26 on Home Favs 6 - 2 on Away Favs 22 - 10 DOGS overall 18 - 7 on Home Dogs 4 - 3 on Away Dogs
YTD 84 - 38 to end regular season <---
11 - 5 National Spotlight evening games on Sat, Sun, Mon
There are 3 such EVENING matches this wildcard weekend, and on my capping sheets I have a selection circled in all 3.
@fubah2 a lot of your bets are huge ML bets, do you count that as ATS ? Your record is just wins right?
Yes.
I have posted here 84 bets that won and 38 that lost (all in this single thread for convenient review by anyone)
My bets are a variety of ATS, moneylines, and the hybrid known as "alternate lines" (buy pts, but heavy juice)
Thankfully, I am doing well this season for profit.
A few additional interesting facts upon review of my notes:
• 50 - 23 with my best bets (which I bet significantly higher $$$)
• I have only posted 4 bets using Vegas lines (ATS), going 2 - 2
• Moneylines, I am 38 - 18 for a modest/small profit overall
• This means I am 44 - 18 on all the bets where I am buying pts, but laying heavy chalk!
The latter is where I am making my money. While it might be tempting to assume heavy chalk bets are a bad idea, this is not the case in my handicapping style (including baseball)...
• All bets where my juice is -270 and higher (moneylines and/or Alt lines) I am having a terrific season 29 - 3
Of those, a nice 21 - 3 on designated *BestBets(when the juice is -270 and up)
I have posted Niners on the moneyline as a *Best Bet for Saturday's wildcard
4
Quote Originally Posted by brocktherock:
@fubah2 a lot of your bets are huge ML bets, do you count that as ATS ? Your record is just wins right?
Yes.
I have posted here 84 bets that won and 38 that lost (all in this single thread for convenient review by anyone)
My bets are a variety of ATS, moneylines, and the hybrid known as "alternate lines" (buy pts, but heavy juice)
Thankfully, I am doing well this season for profit.
A few additional interesting facts upon review of my notes:
• 50 - 23 with my best bets (which I bet significantly higher $$$)
• I have only posted 4 bets using Vegas lines (ATS), going 2 - 2
• Moneylines, I am 38 - 18 for a modest/small profit overall
• This means I am 44 - 18 on all the bets where I am buying pts, but laying heavy chalk!
The latter is where I am making my money. While it might be tempting to assume heavy chalk bets are a bad idea, this is not the case in my handicapping style (including baseball)...
• All bets where my juice is -270 and higher (moneylines and/or Alt lines) I am having a terrific season 29 - 3
Of those, a nice 21 - 3 on designated *BestBets(when the juice is -270 and up)
I have posted Niners on the moneyline as a *Best Bet for Saturday's wildcard
Reviewing my notes further, this could potentially help some, or not . . .
I am 29 - 3 when the juice I am staking is -270 and higher,
but specifically for moneyline bets of -270 and higher I went 13 - 1
In a related matter, I was looking at the *HOME*FAVS of -7.5 and higher which I chose to bet, but made those bets buying pts on an "Alternate Line" with heavy juice. Here are my results when I bought pts to improve a "select" HEAVY *HOME* FAV's chances of covering at a significantly lower number:
bought pts down to -6.5 .... 0 - 1 -332 (Eagles fail cover by 1 pt) bought pts down to -6.0 .... 1 - 0 bought pts down to -3.5 .... 1 - 0 bought pts down to -3.0 .... 2 - 0 bought pts down to -2.5 .... 8 - 0 (mean avg stake is -315)
=12 - 1 when buy pts despite heavy juice
3
Reviewing my notes further, this could potentially help some, or not . . .
I am 29 - 3 when the juice I am staking is -270 and higher,
but specifically for moneyline bets of -270 and higher I went 13 - 1
In a related matter, I was looking at the *HOME*FAVS of -7.5 and higher which I chose to bet, but made those bets buying pts on an "Alternate Line" with heavy juice. Here are my results when I bought pts to improve a "select" HEAVY *HOME* FAV's chances of covering at a significantly lower number:
bought pts down to -6.5 .... 0 - 1 -332 (Eagles fail cover by 1 pt) bought pts down to -6.0 .... 1 - 0 bought pts down to -3.5 .... 1 - 0 bought pts down to -3.0 .... 2 - 0 bought pts down to -2.5 .... 8 - 0 (mean avg stake is -315)
bought pts down to -3.0 .... 1 - 0 bought pts down to -2.5 .... 1 - 0
So, the net result is 14 - 1 buying large FAVS down to a smaller number.
*Note,in these two posts, I am NOT referring to ALL favs of -7.5 that are on the schedule, but rather only those I selectively chose to bet on, and then subsequently gave up heavy juice to buy the line way down, usually below the key number of 3.
2
Added to the above are the *AWAY* FAVS results,
bought pts down to -3.0 .... 1 - 0 bought pts down to -2.5 .... 1 - 0
So, the net result is 14 - 1 buying large FAVS down to a smaller number.
*Note,in these two posts, I am NOT referring to ALL favs of -7.5 that are on the schedule, but rather only those I selectively chose to bet on, and then subsequently gave up heavy juice to buy the line way down, usually below the key number of 3.
I have at least two more Wildcards circled on my capping sheets and ready for bet but haven't pulled the trigger just yet as I am hoping for a small line shift.
2
I have at least two more Wildcards circled on my capping sheets and ready for bet but haven't pulled the trigger just yet as I am hoping for a small line shift.
I've been gathering & updating some key stats over the years on NFL playoffs results. HOME FAVS: 32 - 21 su, and 25 - 28 ATS AWAY FAVS: 7 - 5 su, and 6 - 6 ATS
It's about even on ATS, dogs or fav. either way. But the ATS trend has a bit skewed to the underdogs in the Wild Card round, 14-11-1 in last 21 years. Home favs of 7 pts or over have been the golden nuggets in the Wild Card.
3
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
I've been gathering & updating some key stats over the years on NFL playoffs results. HOME FAVS: 32 - 21 su, and 25 - 28 ATS AWAY FAVS: 7 - 5 su, and 6 - 6 ATS
It's about even on ATS, dogs or fav. either way. But the ATS trend has a bit skewed to the underdogs in the Wild Card round, 14-11-1 in last 21 years. Home favs of 7 pts or over have been the golden nuggets in the Wild Card.
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: I've been gathering & updating some key stats over the years on NFL playoffs results. HOME FAVS: 32 - 21 su, and 25 - 28 ATS AWAY FAVS: 7 - 5 su, and 6 - 6 ATS It's about even on ATS, dogs or fav. either way. But the ATS trend has a bit skewed to the underdogs in the Wild Card round, 14-11-1 in last 21 years.
Home favs of 7 pts or over have been the golden nuggets in the Wild Card.
Thanks Europa!
Yes, by my count, since the 2002/03 NFL season - which is the starting point of my stats research - the Wildcard HOME FAVS of -7 and up are so far hitting 14 -2 su
3
Quote Originally Posted by Europa:
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: I've been gathering & updating some key stats over the years on NFL playoffs results. HOME FAVS: 32 - 21 su, and 25 - 28 ATS AWAY FAVS: 7 - 5 su, and 6 - 6 ATS It's about even on ATS, dogs or fav. either way. But the ATS trend has a bit skewed to the underdogs in the Wild Card round, 14-11-1 in last 21 years.
Home favs of 7 pts or over have been the golden nuggets in the Wild Card.
Thanks Europa!
Yes, by my count, since the 2002/03 NFL season - which is the starting point of my stats research - the Wildcard HOME FAVS of -7 and up are so far hitting 14 -2 su
Yes, by my count, since the 2002/03 NFL season - which is the starting point of my stats research - the Wildcard HOME FAVS of -7 and up are so far hitting 14 -2 su
After Saturday I hope that improves to 15 - 2
2
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
Thanks Europa!
Yes, by my count, since the 2002/03 NFL season - which is the starting point of my stats research - the Wildcard HOME FAVS of -7 and up are so far hitting 14 -2 su
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: I've been gathering & updating some key stats over the years on NFL playoffs results. HOME FAVS: 32 - 21 su, and 25 - 28 ATS AWAY FAVS: 7 - 5 su, and 6 - 6 ATS It's about even on ATS, dogs or fav. either way. But the ATS trend has a bit skewed to the underdogs in the Wild Card round, 14-11-1 in last 21 years. Home favs of 7 pts or over have been the golden nuggets in the Wild Card.
I need to correct few glitches, sorry.
Dogs are 13-6-1 ats in last 20 years in Wild Card.
But "Home favs of 7 pts or over have been the golden nuggets in the Wild Card" is correct .Be noted, Fubah!!
2
Quote Originally Posted by Europa:
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: I've been gathering & updating some key stats over the years on NFL playoffs results. HOME FAVS: 32 - 21 su, and 25 - 28 ATS AWAY FAVS: 7 - 5 su, and 6 - 6 ATS It's about even on ATS, dogs or fav. either way. But the ATS trend has a bit skewed to the underdogs in the Wild Card round, 14-11-1 in last 21 years. Home favs of 7 pts or over have been the golden nuggets in the Wild Card.
I need to correct few glitches, sorry.
Dogs are 13-6-1 ats in last 20 years in Wild Card.
But "Home favs of 7 pts or over have been the golden nuggets in the Wild Card" is correct .Be noted, Fubah!!
I need to correct few glitches, sorry. Dogs are 13-6-1 ats in last 20 years in Wild Card. But "Home favs of 7 pts or over have been the golden nuggets in the Wild Card" is correct .Be noted, Fubah!!
This might set up some interesting scenarios this weekend, with Niners, Bills, and Bengals all home favorites, and all favored by at least 7. But at the same time, if dogs are covering at a nice 13-6-1 ats then how about going for some middles here
2
Quote Originally Posted by Europa:
I need to correct few glitches, sorry. Dogs are 13-6-1 ats in last 20 years in Wild Card. But "Home favs of 7 pts or over have been the golden nuggets in the Wild Card" is correct .Be noted, Fubah!!
This might set up some interesting scenarios this weekend, with Niners, Bills, and Bengals all home favorites, and all favored by at least 7. But at the same time, if dogs are covering at a nice 13-6-1 ats then how about going for some middles here
Quote Originally Posted by Europa: I need to correct few glitches, sorry. Dogs are 13-6-1 ats in last 20 years in Wild Card. But "Home favs of 7 pts or over have been the golden nuggets in the Wild Card" is correct .Be noted, Fubah!! This might set up some interesting scenarios this weekend, with Niners, Bills, and Bengals all home favorites, and all favored by at least 7. But at the same time, if dogs are covering at a nice 13-6-1 ats then how about going for some middles here
That trend looks enticing, three of these games this week are intra-divisional. Since 2003 road teams played against their divisional rivals, own an 11-5 ATS. SEA/SF, MIA/BUF, BAL/CIN.
2
Quote Originally Posted by Zeus4par:
Quote Originally Posted by Europa: I need to correct few glitches, sorry. Dogs are 13-6-1 ats in last 20 years in Wild Card. But "Home favs of 7 pts or over have been the golden nuggets in the Wild Card" is correct .Be noted, Fubah!! This might set up some interesting scenarios this weekend, with Niners, Bills, and Bengals all home favorites, and all favored by at least 7. But at the same time, if dogs are covering at a nice 13-6-1 ats then how about going for some middles here
That trend looks enticing, three of these games this week are intra-divisional. Since 2003 road teams played against their divisional rivals, own an 11-5 ATS. SEA/SF, MIA/BUF, BAL/CIN.
Quote Originally Posted by Zeus4par: Quote Originally Posted by Europa: I need to correct few glitches, sorry. Dogs are 13-6-1 ats in last 20 years in Wild Card. But "Home favs of 7 pts or over have been the golden nuggets in the Wild Card" is correct .Be noted, Fubah!! This might set up some interesting scenarios this weekend, with Niners, Bills, and Bengals all home favorites, and all favored by at least 7. But at the same time, if dogs are covering at a nice 13-6-1 ats then how about going for some middles here That trend looks enticing, three of these games this week are intra-divisional. Since 2003 road teams played against their divisional rivals, own an 11-5 ATS. SEA/SF, MIA/BUF, BAL/CIN.
Welp, this "middles" idea just gets better and better!
1
Quote Originally Posted by Europa:
Quote Originally Posted by Zeus4par: Quote Originally Posted by Europa: I need to correct few glitches, sorry. Dogs are 13-6-1 ats in last 20 years in Wild Card. But "Home favs of 7 pts or over have been the golden nuggets in the Wild Card" is correct .Be noted, Fubah!! This might set up some interesting scenarios this weekend, with Niners, Bills, and Bengals all home favorites, and all favored by at least 7. But at the same time, if dogs are covering at a nice 13-6-1 ats then how about going for some middles here That trend looks enticing, three of these games this week are intra-divisional. Since 2003 road teams played against their divisional rivals, own an 11-5 ATS. SEA/SF, MIA/BUF, BAL/CIN.
Welp, this "middles" idea just gets better and better!
Quote Originally Posted by Europa: Quote Originally Posted by Zeus4par: Quote Originally Posted by Europa: I need to correct few glitches, sorry. Dogs are 13-6-1 ats in last 20 years in Wild Card. But "Home favs of 7 pts or over have been the golden nuggets in the Wild Card" is correct .Be noted, Fubah!! This might set up some interesting scenarios this weekend, with Niners, Bills, and Bengals all home favorites, and all favored by at least 7. But at the same time, if dogs are covering at a nice 13-6-1 ats then how about going for some middles here That trend looks enticing, three of these games this week are intra-divisional. Since 2003 road teams played against their divisional rivals, own an 11-5 ATS. SEA/SF, MIA/BUF, BAL/CIN. Welp, this "middles" idea just gets better and better!
GL !
"I'm the MOST HONEST HUMAN BEING that God has EVER created!!" - Donald Trump
0
Quote Originally Posted by Zeus4par:
Quote Originally Posted by Europa: Quote Originally Posted by Zeus4par: Quote Originally Posted by Europa: I need to correct few glitches, sorry. Dogs are 13-6-1 ats in last 20 years in Wild Card. But "Home favs of 7 pts or over have been the golden nuggets in the Wild Card" is correct .Be noted, Fubah!! This might set up some interesting scenarios this weekend, with Niners, Bills, and Bengals all home favorites, and all favored by at least 7. But at the same time, if dogs are covering at a nice 13-6-1 ats then how about going for some middles here That trend looks enticing, three of these games this week are intra-divisional. Since 2003 road teams played against their divisional rivals, own an 11-5 ATS. SEA/SF, MIA/BUF, BAL/CIN. Welp, this "middles" idea just gets better and better!
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......A good weekend completely spoiled by three events:
Coach immediately fired.
YTD 84 - 
• All bets where my juice is -
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