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🏈🏈🏈 “To BEt, or not to BEt, that is the question” ...Fubah2's risky bets

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Posted: #1701

Quote Originally Posted by mandy1:

Great job Fubah an_praise

THANK YOU, Mandy!

BoL with your bets! clover

 
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Posted: #1702

BOL clovertonight @fubah2peace_5

 

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Posted: #1703

@Macwestie1

 GL Macwestie1  an_cheers

 
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Posted: #1704

Fubah's  high risk NFL bets, WEEK 6:

 

an_lightThis is the spot (last yr) where I began posting my epic 100 - 39 run!
So, do I feel a repeat coming?!?!       Naahhhhh...   unlikely....
                 I NEVER suggest anyone tail my bets. Proceed at your own risk.

CHIEFS -3.5 -300 alt
Ravens -175
FALCONS -135
SF Niners -220
TEXANS +3 -150 alt
JAGUARS -200
DOLPHINS -6.5-300 alt
TAMPA +7.5-240 alt
LA RAMS -264
BUFFY -6.5 -334 alt
NY JETS +8 -163 alt

 

*May upgrade a bet or two to *BB status later...

 
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Posted: #1705

@fubah2

 an_cheers

"I'm the MOST HONEST HUMAN BEING that God has EVER created!!" - Donald Trump
 
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Posted: #1706

What an epic thread.

Have a great season Fubah.

peace_5

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Posted: #1707

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

FINAL STATS for buying pts down on a heavy fav of -7.5 and higher:

 

I am 40 - 3 when the juice I am staking is -270 and higher.

But specifically for moneyline bets of -270 and higher I am  19 - 1

 

Here are my results when I bought pts to improve a "select" *HOME* FAV's of -7.5 and up chances of covering at a significantly lower number:

bought pts down to -6.5 .... 0 - 1 -332 (Eagles fail cover by 1 pt)
bought pts down to -6.0 .... 1 - 0
bought pts down to -3.5 .... 1 - 0
bought pts down to -3.0 .... 2 - 0 - 1
bought pts down to -2.5 .. 10 - 0    (mean avg stake is -322)
bought pts down to -1.5 .... 3 - 0

= 17 - 1   when buying pts,  despite heavy chalk! an_light

 

*See notes in above post #836

@fubah2  

I will be curious to see how well your point buys works in 2023

I seriously doubt it will be repeated anywhere close

 
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Posted: #1708

Quote Originally Posted by Zeus4par:

FINAL STATS for buying pts down on a heavy fav of -7.5 and higher:

 

I am 40 - 3 when the juice I am staking is -270 and higher.

But specifically for moneyline bets of -270 and higher I am  19 - 1

 

Here are my results when I bought pts to improve a "select" *HOME* FAV's of -7.5 and up chances of covering at a significantly lower number:

bought pts down to -6.5 .... 0 - 1 -332 (Eagles fail cover by 1 pt)
bought pts down to -6.0 .... 1 - 0
bought pts down to -3.5 .... 1 - 0
bought pts down to -3.0 .... 2 - 0 - 1
bought pts down to -2.5 .. 10 - 0    (mean avg stake is -322)
bought pts down to -1.5 .... 3 - 0

= 17 - 1    when buying pts,  despite heavy chalk! an_light

 

*See notes in above post #836

 

 

@fubah2   I will be curious to see how well your point buys works in 2023  I seriously doubt it will be repeated anywhere close

@Zeus4par

OK, so??  Maybe it won't, but I will try to think positively, and work toward at least reasonable profits in both CFB and NFL again this season.

BoL with your bets this week clover

 
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Posted: #1709

Tough call coming up next MNF

K'Boys coming off a major beatdown.....the rested CHARGERS, AT HOME, coming off a bye week.

Dallas on paper is the better team, but just lost their STAR linebacker...Chargers getting healthiy

 
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Posted: #1710

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

Tough call coming up next MNF K'Boys coming off a major beatdown.....the rested CHARGERS, AT HOME, coming off a bye week. Dallas on paper is the better team, but just lost their STAR linebacker...Chargers getting healthiy

Dallas already without DIGGS at corner, have now also lost at GOODWIN at corner!

 
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Posted: #1711

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Tough call coming up next MNF K'Boys coming off a major beatdown.....the rested CHARGERS, AT HOME, coming off a bye week. Dallas on paper is the better team, but just lost their STAR linebacker...Chargers getting healthiy Dallas already without DIGGS at corner, have now also lost at GOODWIN at corner!

Now RW is reporting that Dallas Safety Donovan Wilson sustained an injury that makes him Q for MNF  paint_help

 
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Posted: #1712

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

MNF: My ratings have PACKERS ahead of daaaa Raaayduuhhs - WITH Watson at receiver but even without Aaron Jones at RB.  That's the case tonight. PACKERS got an embarrassing beatdown in LAMBEAU in front of their adoring hometown fans, to a very good division rival that has completely erased their "loser" past.  But how would YOU expect proud teams typically respond after a homefield embarrassment like that when going on the road to face a slightly weaker opponent? An opp that has the league leading WR who used to play for Green Bay. PACKERS OLine was patchwork but is healing fast. Sure, LOVE can scramble.....and he just may have to do a lot of that tonight.  That may be be a good thing though if he fully utilizes the "Patrick Mahommes" style within him..... OR, he could be sacked multiple times, ending crucial drives. Coin-flip on that questionmark.... In PACKERS only 2 road games thus far (week's 1 and 2) the PACKERS whacked the Bears then narrowly lost a one-pointer in Atlanta to a mediocre team rated higher than Raiders.  So, an 18 point victory and a single pt loss. They will be getting +2 tonight at LV... AND their last game was 11 days ago on TNF.  They've had more days to heal (esp the OLine) and prepare for MNF than Raiders. Meanwhile, daaaa Raaaayduuuhhs are a mystery to me.  Two weeks ago they were in prime spot AT HOME  to whack the VERY LUCKY Steelers (rated about dead even with GreenBay) but were being outplayed and losing 23 - 7 until "garbage time" midway through the final Q - when they still lost by 5.  HOME FIELD!   Tonight they are again on homefield facing an equally rated opp (Packers) to those "luckyass" Steelers, but with starters Hobbs and Bennett OUT of the Raiders secondary and backup LONG will be forced in with an ankle injury.   I favor taking the points .... but will not......not yet.....I need to see how things are sorting themselves out early in the contest and will look for LIVE BET opps....
its a good thing u backed off  pack r now worse than LV  who is weak

"I'm the MOST HONEST HUMAN BEING that God has EVER created!!" - Donald Trump
 
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Posted: #1713

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

MNF: My ratings have PACKERS ahead of daaaa Raaayduuhhs - WITH Watson at receiver but even without Aaron Jones at RB.  That's the case tonight. PACKERS got an embarrassing beatdown in LAMBEAU in front of their adoring hometown fans, to a very good division rival that has completely erased their "loser" past.  But how would YOU expect proud teams typically respond after a homefield embarrassment like that when going on the road to face a slightly weaker opponent? An opp that has the league leading WR who used to play for Green Bay. PACKERS OLine was patchwork but is healing fast. Sure, LOVE can scramble.....and he just may have to do a lot of that tonight.  That may be be a good thing though if he fully utilizes the "Patrick Mahommes" style within him..... OR, he could be sacked multiple times, ending crucial drives. Coin-flip on that questionmark.... In PACKERS only 2 road games thus far (week's 1 and 2) the PACKERS whacked the Bears then narrowly lost a one-pointer in Atlanta to a mediocre team rated higher than Raiders.  So, an 18 point victory and a single pt loss. They will be getting +2 tonight at LV... AND their last game was 11 days ago on TNF.  They've had more days to heal (esp the OLine) and prepare for MNF than Raiders. Meanwhile, daaaa Raaaayduuuhhs are a mystery to me.  Two weeks ago they were in prime spot AT HOME  to whack the VERY LUCKY Steelers (rated about dead even with GreenBay) but were being outplayed and losing 23 - 7 until "garbage time" midway through the final Q - when they still lost by 5.  HOME FIELD!   Tonight they are again on homefield facing an equally rated opp (Packers) to those "luckyass" Steelers, but with starters Hobbs and Bennett OUT of the Raiders secondary and backup LONG will be forced in with an ankle injury.   I favor taking the points .... but will not......not yet.....I need to see how things are sorting themselves out early in the contest and will look for LIVE BET opps....
its a good thing u backed off  pack r now worse than LV  who is weak

"I'm the MOST HONEST HUMAN BEING that God has EVER created!!" - Donald Trump
 
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Posted: #1714

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

MNF: My ratings have PACKERS ahead of daaaa Raaayduuhhs - WITH Watson at receiver but even without Aaron Jones at RB.  That's the case tonight. PACKERS got an embarrassing beatdown in LAMBEAU in front of their adoring hometown fans, to a very good division rival that has completely erased their "loser" past.  But how would YOU expect proud teams typically respond after a homefield embarrassment like that when going on the road to face a slightly weaker opponent? An opp that has the league leading WR who used to play for Green Bay. PACKERS OLine was patchwork but is healing fast. Sure, LOVE can scramble.....and he just may have to do a lot of that tonight.  That may be be a good thing though if he fully utilizes the "Patrick Mahommes" style within him..... OR, he could be sacked multiple times, ending crucial drives. Coin-flip on that questionmark.... In PACKERS only 2 road games thus far (week's 1 and 2) the PACKERS whacked the Bears then narrowly lost a one-pointer in Atlanta to a mediocre team rated higher than Raiders.  So, an 18 point victory and a single pt loss. They will be getting +2 tonight at LV... AND their last game was 11 days ago on TNF.  They've had more days to heal (esp the OLine) and prepare for MNF than Raiders. Meanwhile, daaaa Raaaayduuuhhs are a mystery to me.  Two weeks ago they were in prime spot AT HOME  to whack the VERY LUCKY Steelers (rated about dead even with GreenBay) but were being outplayed and losing 23 - 7 until "garbage time" midway through the final Q - when they still lost by 5.  HOME FIELD!   Tonight they are again on homefield facing an equally rated opp (Packers) to those "luckyass" Steelers, but with starters Hobbs and Bennett OUT of the Raiders secondary and backup LONG will be forced in with an ankle injury.   I favor taking the points .... but will not......not yet.....I need to see how things are sorting themselves out early in the contest and will look for LIVE BET opps....
its a good thing u backed off  pack r now worse than LV  who is weak

"I'm the MOST HONEST HUMAN BEING that God has EVER created!!" - Donald Trump
 
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Posted: #1715

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

MNF: My ratings have PACKERS ahead of daaaa Raaayduuhhs - WITH Watson at receiver but even without Aaron Jones at RB.  That's the case tonight. PACKERS got an embarrassing beatdown in LAMBEAU in front of their adoring hometown fans, to a very good division rival that has completely erased their "loser" past.  But how would YOU expect proud teams typically respond after a homefield embarrassment like that when going on the road to face a slightly weaker opponent? An opp that has the league leading WR who used to play for Green Bay. PACKERS OLine was patchwork but is healing fast. Sure, LOVE can scramble.....and he just may have to do a lot of that tonight.  That may be be a good thing though if he fully utilizes the "Patrick Mahommes" style within him..... OR, he could be sacked multiple times, ending crucial drives. Coin-flip on that questionmark.... In PACKERS only 2 road games thus far (week's 1 and 2) the PACKERS whacked the Bears then narrowly lost a one-pointer in Atlanta to a mediocre team rated higher than Raiders.  So, an 18 point victory and a single pt loss. They will be getting +2 tonight at LV... AND their last game was 11 days ago on TNF.  They've had more days to heal (esp the OLine) and prepare for MNF than Raiders. Meanwhile, daaaa Raaaayduuuhhs are a mystery to me.  Two weeks ago they were in prime spot AT HOME  to whack the VERY LUCKY Steelers (rated about dead even with GreenBay) but were being outplayed and losing 23 - 7 until "garbage time" midway through the final Q - when they still lost by 5.  HOME FIELD!   Tonight they are again on homefield facing an equally rated opp (Packers) to those "luckyass" Steelers, but with starters Hobbs and Bennett OUT of the Raiders secondary and backup LONG will be forced in with an ankle injury.   I favor taking the points .... but will not......not yet.....I need to see how things are sorting themselves out early in the contest and will look for LIVE BET opps....
its a good thing u backed off  pack r now worse than LV  who is weak

"I'm the MOST HONEST HUMAN BEING that God has EVER created!!" - Donald Trump
 
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Posted: #1716

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

MNF: My ratings have PACKERS ahead of daaaa Raaayduuhhs - WITH Watson at receiver but even without Aaron Jones at RB.  That's the case tonight. PACKERS got an embarrassing beatdown in LAMBEAU in front of their adoring hometown fans, to a very good division rival that has completely erased their "loser" past.  But how would YOU expect proud teams typically respond after a homefield embarrassment like that when going on the road to face a slightly weaker opponent? An opp that has the league leading WR who used to play for Green Bay. PACKERS OLine was patchwork but is healing fast. Sure, LOVE can scramble.....and he just may have to do a lot of that tonight.  That may be be a good thing though if he fully utilizes the "Patrick Mahommes" style within him..... OR, he could be sacked multiple times, ending crucial drives. Coin-flip on that questionmark.... In PACKERS only 2 road games thus far (week's 1 and 2) the PACKERS whacked the Bears then narrowly lost a one-pointer in Atlanta to a mediocre team rated higher than Raiders.  So, an 18 point victory and a single pt loss. They will be getting +2 tonight at LV... AND their last game was 11 days ago on TNF.  They've had more days to heal (esp the OLine) and prepare for MNF than Raiders. Meanwhile, daaaa Raaaayduuuhhs are a mystery to me.  Two weeks ago they were in prime spot AT HOME  to whack the VERY LUCKY Steelers (rated about dead even with GreenBay) but were being outplayed and losing 23 - 7 until "garbage time" midway through the final Q - when they still lost by 5.  HOME FIELD!   Tonight they are again on homefield facing an equally rated opp (Packers) to those "luckyass" Steelers, but with starters Hobbs and Bennett OUT of the Raiders secondary and backup LONG will be forced in with an ankle injury.   I favor taking the points .... but will not......not yet.....I need to see how things are sorting themselves out early in the contest and will look for LIVE BET opps....
its a good thing u backed off  pack r now worse than LV  who is weak

"I'm the MOST HONEST HUMAN BEING that God has EVER created!!" - Donald Trump
 
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Posted: #1717

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

MNF: My ratings have PACKERS ahead of daaaa Raaayduuhhs - WITH Watson at receiver but even without Aaron Jones at RB.  That's the case tonight. PACKERS got an embarrassing beatdown in LAMBEAU in front of their adoring hometown fans, to a very good division rival that has completely erased their "loser" past.  But how would YOU expect proud teams typically respond after a homefield embarrassment like that when going on the road to face a slightly weaker opponent? An opp that has the league leading WR who used to play for Green Bay. PACKERS OLine was patchwork but is healing fast. Sure, LOVE can scramble.....and he just may have to do a lot of that tonight.  That may be be a good thing though if he fully utilizes the "Patrick Mahommes" style within him..... OR, he could be sacked multiple times, ending crucial drives. Coin-flip on that questionmark.... In PACKERS only 2 road games thus far (week's 1 and 2) the PACKERS whacked the Bears then narrowly lost a one-pointer in Atlanta to a mediocre team rated higher than Raiders.  So, an 18 point victory and a single pt loss. They will be getting +2 tonight at LV... AND their last game was 11 days ago on TNF.  They've had more days to heal (esp the OLine) and prepare for MNF than Raiders. Meanwhile, daaaa Raaaayduuuhhs are a mystery to me.  Two weeks ago they were in prime spot AT HOME  to whack the VERY LUCKY Steelers (rated about dead even with GreenBay) but were being outplayed and losing 23 - 7 until "garbage time" midway through the final Q - when they still lost by 5.  HOME FIELD!   Tonight they are again on homefield facing an equally rated opp (Packers) to those "luckyass" Steelers, but with starters Hobbs and Bennett OUT of the Raiders secondary and backup LONG will be forced in with an ankle injury.   I favor taking the points .... but will not......not yet.....I need to see how things are sorting themselves out early in the contest and will look for LIVE BET opps....
its a good thing u backed off  pack r now worse than LV  who is weak

"I'm the MOST HONEST HUMAN BEING that God has EVER created!!" - Donald Trump
 
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Posted: #1718

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

MNF: My ratings have PACKERS ahead of daaaa Raaayduuhhs - WITH Watson at receiver but even without Aaron Jones at RB.  That's the case tonight. PACKERS got an embarrassing beatdown in LAMBEAU in front of their adoring hometown fans, to a very good division rival that has completely erased their "loser" past.  But how would YOU expect proud teams typically respond after a homefield embarrassment like that when going on the road to face a slightly weaker opponent? An opp that has the league leading WR who used to play for Green Bay. PACKERS OLine was patchwork but is healing fast. Sure, LOVE can scramble.....and he just may have to do a lot of that tonight.  That may be be a good thing though if he fully utilizes the "Patrick Mahommes" style within him..... OR, he could be sacked multiple times, ending crucial drives. Coin-flip on that questionmark.... In PACKERS only 2 road games thus far (week's 1 and 2) the PACKERS whacked the Bears then narrowly lost a one-pointer in Atlanta to a mediocre team rated higher than Raiders.  So, an 18 point victory and a single pt loss. They will be getting +2 tonight at LV... AND their last game was 11 days ago on TNF.  They've had more days to heal (esp the OLine) and prepare for MNF than Raiders. Meanwhile, daaaa Raaaayduuuhhs are a mystery to me.  Two weeks ago they were in prime spot AT HOME  to whack the VERY LUCKY Steelers (rated about dead even with GreenBay) but were being outplayed and losing 23 - 7 until "garbage time" midway through the final Q - when they still lost by 5.  HOME FIELD!   Tonight they are again on homefield facing an equally rated opp (Packers) to those "luckyass" Steelers, but with starters Hobbs and Bennett OUT of the Raiders secondary and backup LONG will be forced in with an ankle injury.   I favor taking the points .... but will not......not yet.....I need to see how things are sorting themselves out early in the contest and will look for LIVE BET opps....
its a good thing u backed off  pack r now worse than LV  who is weak

"I'm the MOST HONEST HUMAN BEING that God has EVER created!!" - Donald Trump
 
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Posted: #1719

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

MNF: My ratings have PACKERS ahead of daaaa Raaayduuhhs - WITH Watson at receiver but even without Aaron Jones at RB.  That's the case tonight. PACKERS got an embarrassing beatdown in LAMBEAU in front of their adoring hometown fans, to a very good division rival that has completely erased their "loser" past.  But how would YOU expect proud teams typically respond after a homefield embarrassment like that when going on the road to face a slightly weaker opponent? An opp that has the league leading WR who used to play for Green Bay. PACKERS OLine was patchwork but is healing fast. Sure, LOVE can scramble.....and he just may have to do a lot of that tonight.  That may be be a good thing though if he fully utilizes the "Patrick Mahommes" style within him..... OR, he could be sacked multiple times, ending crucial drives. Coin-flip on that questionmark.... In PACKERS only 2 road games thus far (week's 1 and 2) the PACKERS whacked the Bears then narrowly lost a one-pointer in Atlanta to a mediocre team rated higher than Raiders.  So, an 18 point victory and a single pt loss. They will be getting +2 tonight at LV... AND their last game was 11 days ago on TNF.  They've had more days to heal (esp the OLine) and prepare for MNF than Raiders. Meanwhile, daaaa Raaaayduuuhhs are a mystery to me.  Two weeks ago they were in prime spot AT HOME  to whack the VERY LUCKY Steelers (rated about dead even with GreenBay) but were being outplayed and losing 23 - 7 until "garbage time" midway through the final Q - when they still lost by 5.  HOME FIELD!   Tonight they are again on homefield facing an equally rated opp (Packers) to those "luckyass" Steelers, but with starters Hobbs and Bennett OUT of the Raiders secondary and backup LONG will be forced in with an ankle injury.   I favor taking the points .... but will not......not yet.....I need to see how things are sorting themselves out early in the contest and will look for LIVE BET opps....
its a good thing u backed off  pack r now worse than LV  who is weak

"I'm the MOST HONEST HUMAN BEING that God has EVER created!!" - Donald Trump
 
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Posted: #1720

Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

  What an epic thread!

Have a great season Fubah! peace_5

Thanks! and BoL with all your bets this year! clover

 

 
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Posted: #1721

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Tough call coming up next MNF K'Boys coming off a major beatdown.....the rested CHARGERS, AT HOME, coming off a bye week. Dallas on paper is the better team, but just lost their STAR linebacker...Chargers getting healthiy Dallas already without DIGGS at corner, have now also lost at GOODWIN at corner! Now RW is reporting that Dallas Safety Donovan Wilson sustained an injury that makes him Q for MNF
cowboys secondary definitely in trouble against the pass happy chargers

"I'm the MOST HONEST HUMAN BEING that God has EVER created!!" - Donald Trump
 
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Posted: #1722

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Tough call coming up next MNF K'Boys coming off a major beatdown.....the rested CHARGERS, AT HOME, coming off a bye week. Dallas on paper is the better team, but just lost their STAR linebacker...Chargers getting healthiy Dallas already without DIGGS at corner, have now also lost at GOODWIN at corner! Now RW is reporting that Dallas Safety Donovan Wilson sustained an injury that makes him Q for MNF
cowboys secondary definitely in trouble against the pass happy chargers

"I'm the MOST HONEST HUMAN BEING that God has EVER created!!" - Donald Trump
 
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Posted: #1723

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Tough call coming up next MNF K'Boys coming off a major beatdown.....the rested CHARGERS, AT HOME, coming off a bye week. Dallas on paper is the better team, but just lost their STAR linebacker...Chargers getting healthiy Dallas already without DIGGS at corner, have now also lost at GOODWIN at corner! Now RW is reporting that Dallas Safety Donovan Wilson sustained an injury that makes him Q for MNF
cowboys secondary definitely in trouble against the pass happy chargers

"I'm the MOST HONEST HUMAN BEING that God has EVER created!!" - Donald Trump
 
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Posted: #1724

Quote Originally Posted by Macwestie1:

BOLclover tonight @fubah2peace_5

THANKS!  and BoL with your bets this week! thumbs_up

 
 
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Posted: #1725

Quote Originally Posted by mandy1:

Great job Fubah

Thank you sir!

BoL with all your bets this week! an_cheers

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