Fellow DeGens,
Feel good about these plays and used some more advance metrics from PFF I will include.
For reference, one great metric is called ADV (Matchup Advantage) compiles WR vs CB data through various stats(catches, YAC, outside/slot, etc) that is updated weekly
Current Lines pulled from Fanduel for reference, i use Bookmaker and they come out around 9:30CST for me.
STRONG LEANS
Tyler Lockett OVER 70.5 Rec Yards
-High over/under and expect a shootout against Big D
-Through 2 games caught 15/16 targets (92,67 YPG)
-BEST STAT: PFF 47% ADV over CB Jourdan Lewis 2nd best of week 3
-Dallas is starting 3 backup DBs this week due to injuries
-Most people would choose DK here (who I love) but I feel like it might be a trap because of his last 2 games and Joe Public is all over him
Austin Ekeler OVER 30.5 Rec Yards
-Carolina has gotten gashed in running and short pass game
-Rookie QB (who I think kills it today) expect a ton of easy "safe passes"
-BEST STAT: Last week he got over 30 yards on his first pass catch
DeAndre Hopkins OVER 6.5 Catches
-Murray has averaged 78 ATT through 2 games
-Through 2 games caught 22/25 targets
-BEST STAT: PFF 25% ADV over a weak Lions secondary
Calvin Ridley OVER Rec Yards (no line yet, waiting on julio jones playing or not)
Russell Gage OVER Rec Yards (no line yet, waiting on julio jones playing or not)
-If julio jones is out or might be a decoy I would lean more on gage
-Gage has been hammered with targets and is WHITE HOT right now
-BEST STAT: Ridley PFF 39% ADV & Gage PFF 21% ADV
-If Out I will hammer one of these
Ceedee Lamb OVER 62 Rec Yards
-High over/under and expect a shootout and playing catchup to russell dang wilson
-Through 2 games caught 11/15 targets (71,75 YPG)
-Seattle has ZERO pass rush so Dak will have time to throw
SPREAD LEANS
Washington +7.5
SD -6.5
Pats -6.5
let’s get this second half
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