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2013 crunching the numbers...

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Prospect
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Posted: #126
Autoupdated with stat sheets. Just need to develop formulas. Where do you get tackle for los data? 
 
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Posted: #127
Quote Originally Posted by pcz:

Autoupdated with stat sheets. Just need to develop formulas. Where do you get tackle for los data? 

Most ppl go to team rankings for that...my program was built to track teams as a whole and basically do the math for me...the only actual math I do is calculating the numbers against the NFL average...the capping comes into play by studying the line and seeing if the line is sharp has value or totally off..

For example the Colts niners game...Colts had better numbers on both sides of the ball which to no suprise they flat out won on a +10 spread...was definitely a money line play there....Some of the numbers on games are so sharp to the line that its a no play, which in that case was the titans and chargers game, ended up a push.

Again uploading data from various sources and doing the math takes some time, having to go to various sites and pulling data..but if you have time and a decent program or a auto spreadsheet with sources to compile data then go for it 
 
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Posted: #128
8-5-1 ... With all the stats I thought the ATS might be better ?? 

Do you wager on college ?? 

Not giving you crap I just thought the record would be better is all ..
 
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Posted: #129
Quote Originally Posted by Upside:

8-5-1 ... With all the stats I thought the ATS might be better ?? 

Do you wager on college ?? 

Not giving you crap I just thought the record would be better is all ..

NFL 9-5-1 

I'm not in this for the Hilton contest...as long as its profitable and I can wager and enjoy the season of the best sport to watch in the world I'm good 
 
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Posted: #130
1trust-me62-­25-­271.26%+­17250ViewView


Mr Evil.
 
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Posted: #131
Keep up the great work AFN!!!
 
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Posted: #132
Friend request sent
 
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Posted: #133
Quote Originally Posted by AFNfootballnerd:


Most ppl go to team rankings for that...my program was built to track teams as a whole and basically do the math for me...the only actual math I do is calculating the numbers against the NFL average...the capping comes into play by studying the line and seeing if the line is sharp has value or totally off..

For example the Colts niners game...Colts had better numbers on both sides of the ball which to no suprise they flat out won on a +10 spread...was definitely a money line play there....Some of the numbers on games are so sharp to the line that its a no play, which in that case was the titans and chargers game, ended up a push.

Again uploading data from various sources and doing the math takes some time, having to go to various sites and pulling data..but if you have time and a decent program or a auto spreadsheet with sources to compile data then go for it 


Thanks for giving me the src for TFL stats.

I'm pulling stats from ESPN primarily. Couldn't you automate the league average stats when you're automatically pulling in data?

Automating the system as much as possible is crucial for me as I work for a startup company (takes up a lot of my time). But like you, I love to watch football and bet.


 
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Posted: #134
thxs.afn...great week!! keep it up...looking forward to your posts..
 
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Posted: #135
@AFNFootballnerd Can you add me so I can send you a link to my sheets? If you could give me some feedback on any issues with the sheets, that'd be great.


 
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Posted: #136
TNF... SF @ STL

Offense- 

SF -12% STL -16%

Defense-

SF 8% STL 10%

Books spot on with the line at 3...numbers are so close...gotta take the home dog in this one

Pick Rams +3 


Taking Seattle -2.5 now....public might push it to -3 
 
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Posted: #137
Adding Dallas -2 
 
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Posted: #138
Final card week 4 

Grabbing them early 

Rams+3
Seahawks -2.5
Cowboys -2
Saints -6

Lines are freaking sharp this week...dam books catching up after 3 weeks


 
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Posted: #139
New to thread. Can you tell me for NFL week 4 picks, how many games back will you using to come up with your offense and defense percentages.
 
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Posted: #140
You follow college too AFN?
 
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Posted: #141
Also what is your ranking of your picks as in 5star-1star etc. been reading your progress! Great job last week. Keep it up!
 
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Posted: #142
AFN you are betting like a square this week
Rams+3
Seahawks -2.5 (wheredidyaget 2.5?) 
Cowboys -2
Saints -6 (wheredidyaget -6)

thanks for your info, I'm fading everyone of those picks, except I got 
Seahawks -3. 

Thanks for the free money.
 
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Posted: #143
MOney LIne KIng Plays "where free money lies" (TM)
   
Ravens -175 ($700 to win $400)
Kansas City -210 ($840 to win $400)
Seattle -150 ($1500 to win $1000)
Cinci -210 (Adam Jones yay $210 to win $100)
Chicago +125 ($400 to win $500)
New Orleans -275 (5 star play. $5500 to win $2000)
Molikipl (C)
 
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Posted: #144
I got saints -6 betsonline. Hawks were -3 tho
 
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Posted: #145
Bookmaker -2.5 
 
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Posted: #146
Quote Originally Posted by imsparty1:

MOney LIne KIng Plays "where free money lies" (TM)
   
Ravens -175 ($700 to win $400)
Kansas City -210 ($840 to win $400)
Seattle -150 ($1500 to win $1000)
Cinci -210 (Adam Jones yay $210 to win $100)
Chicago +125 ($400 to win $500)
New Orleans -275 (5 star play. $5500 to win $2000)
Molikipl (C)
 

These your picks? Trolling me that I'm betting like a square but your playing favorite Moneylines....
 
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Posted: #147
Is saints -7 still ok?
 
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Posted: #148
Id take -7, saints at home on a mon night, $ in the bank!
 
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Posted: #149
How would you rate ur picks AFN, lookn to hit the rams b4 it moves to much but would like a 2nd opinion. Thanx
 
 
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Posted: #150
Good to hear the numbers point to STL. Thanks AFN! 
$hoot$
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