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2013 crunching the numbers...

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Posted: #176

plopez14325. How about try to middle out with a different book?

example Monday night game. Some have Denver -14 some have Oakland 16.5 to 17. You can middle out your ticket and win  both side

Denver -14 win

Oakland 16.5 win

 
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Posted: #177
Quote Originally Posted by plopez14325:

Thanks AFN were from buffalo and all bills fans, but after how horrible the team and especially EJ Manuel played he changed the bills from +3.5 to +8, would you be able to tell me if your data would suggest that being a good bet,  On one hand its in Buffalo, but on the other the bills entire secondary is injured,,, any thoughts?

Defense-

Ravens 2% Bills %2

Offense 

Ravens -10% Bills -6%

The line should be a pickem...nothing stood out for a wager...given the percentages I have no clue who will win or cover.  This game is an example of a no play 

 
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Posted: #178
Does your Seattle pick change given the fact that two starting offensive linemen are out?
 
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Posted: #179
Thanks for sharing...KEEP UP THE GOOD WORK...REFUSE TO LOSE..
 
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Posted: #180
Quote Originally Posted by AFNfootballnerd:

TNF... SF @ STL

Offense- 

SF -12% STL -16%

Defense-

SF 8% STL 10%

Books spot on with the line at 3...numbers are so close...gotta take the home dog in this one

Pick Rams +3 


Taking Seattle -2.5 now....public might push it to -3 

If the books are spot on at a line of 3, what is the value in betting a side?

 
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Posted: #181
Quote Originally Posted by BigUnit:

If the books are spot on at a line of 3, what is the value in betting a side?


The degenerate in me wanting to watch TNF 
 
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Posted: #182
At least your honest. 
 
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Posted: #183
Quote Originally Posted by AFNfootballnerd:

Final card week 4 

Grabbing them early 

Rams+3
Seahawks -2.5
Cowboys -2
Saints -6

Lines are freaking sharp this week...dam books catching up after 3 weeks



Love all your picks this week man. Wish St. Louis would've put up at least a fight tonight but they didn't. At least the offense didn't. Here's to a 3-1 week! Good luck
 
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Posted: #184
Quote Originally Posted by reeferboyz:


Love all your picks this week man. Wish St. Louis would've put up at least a fight tonight but they didn't. At least the offense didn't. Here's to a 3-1 week! Good luck

 The rams were brutal to watch...it was one of those games where you know your on the wrong side at halftime
 
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Posted: #185
Yea I wouldve taken the rams regardless, but is there anything worse than knowing by halftime youre going to lose $220, and youre watching the game with somebody who has never bet a game, and he tells you the whole game that I shouldve listened to him and taken SF.... and then when its 35-11 he says see i told you, i wanted to kill the idiot
 
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Posted: #186
I feel quite a few favorites are going to win this week...it's still the first quarter of the season dont chu know...
 
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Posted: #187
Quote Originally Posted by plopez14325:

Yea I wouldve taken the rams regardless, but is there anything worse than knowing by halftime youre going to lose $220, and youre watching the game with somebody who has never bet a game, and he tells you the whole game that I shouldve listened to him and taken SF.... and then when its 35-11 he says see i told you, i wanted to kill the idiot

I remember the patriots undefeated season run and my square pick back then...of course wast the patriots...my ex gf...huge giants fan...so I decided to bet her 100 bucks to make it more entertaining for her yet....on the side she had no idea I was a degenerate and bet 2k on patriots  

She was ecstatic about the giants comeback and said to me "aww it's only a 100 dollars no worries" little did she know how pissed I was 
 
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Posted: #188
Quote Originally Posted by AFNfootballnerd:

 

These your picks? Trolling me that I'm betting like a square but your playing favorite Moneylines....
yeah, wk4 playin the favoriate M/L. why is that funny?
btw, thanks for the st. louis pick   fade is the way to play ya picks
 
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Posted: #189
MOney LIne KIng Plays "where free money lies" (TM)
   
Ravens -175 ($700 to win $400)
Kansas City -210 ($840 to win $400)
Seattle -150 ($1500 to win $1000)
Cinci -210 (Adam Jones yay $210 to win $100)
Chicago +125 ($400 to win $500)
New Orleans -275 (5 star play. $5500 to win $2000)

BTW: cowboys will not cover, but I love'em and can't bet against em. afl nice square picks this week
 
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Posted: #190
On to Tomorrow...GOOD LUCK 
 
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Posted: #191
I just went 11-0 against the spread in college football... unfortunately i was betting like a girl because I was already down $275, but at least im +210 now and since I was doing so well I put $100 on fresno st, oregon, and asu and he tells me hes closed for the night.  I figured it was a good thing because at that point I was 8-0 and figured i was probably going to lose all 3 of em.... but nope i won all 3, if i wouldve parlayed that for $100 it wouldve came out to something like 132,689.65.... by the way i loved the pats/giants story i literally lol bc it reminded me so much of a time a took my gf to philly for an eagles game, and i lost about $1200 and she had no idea I even bet, and she couldnt understand why I was yelling so much... after the game she said im sorry the eagles lost babe, i didnt even know you were such a fan... alright fellas BOL for tom
 
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Posted: #192
wow sparty a real hater
 
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Posted: #193
What's the match up look like for the 8 o'clock game?
 
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Posted: #194
Dude sparty you picked ml favorites and it was still pathletic, and you got very lucky on sea, when u couldve just went -2.5
 
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Posted: #195
Quote Originally Posted by plopez14325:

Dude sparty you picked ml favorites and it was still pathletic, and you got very lucky on sea, when u couldve just went -2.5
dude lopez, get a clue on DAL's poor defense. Even thogh probability suggests tat Boys are a 55% fav to win right now with 9:32 left in the third, DAL Defense will give up a big (long pass) TD and will lose.  

The Aints will win, but prob not by 6+. 

GL betting with your new bookie who prob is passing bets onto another larger outfit. When it comes time for you to pay up....it also is time for your bookie to pay his larger outfit...
.  
 
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Posted: #196
Would you mind posting the stats for tonight's game?
 
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Posted: #197
Kwon, 

The NYT have prob of winning @ 1) NO 66%/ Miami 34%.2) NE 38%/ATL 62%
 
 
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Posted: #198
Quote Originally Posted by Kwon_g:

Would you mind posting the stats for tonight's game?

Geez how bad is Dallas defense? Up 21 -10 and literally lay down before the half 

NE @ ATL

Offense-

NE -10% ATL 19%

Defense-

NE -18% ATL 7%

Bad offense on the road gotta take ATL in a route 

Pick ATL -3 



 
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Posted: #199
Quote Originally Posted by AFNfootballnerd:


Geez how bad is Dallas defense? Up 21 -10 and literally lay down before the half 

NE @ ATL

Offense-

NE -10% ATL 19%

Defense-

NE -18% ATL 7%

Bad offense on the road gotta take ATL in a route 

Pick ATL -3 



Thanks for posting the stats. Appeciate it a lot. Was leaning ATL to, now I just feel better about it 
 
 
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Posted: #200
Asante Samuel out

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