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2013 crunching the numbers...

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Posted: #151
Quote Originally Posted by s_bun916:

Is saints -7 still ok?

Ouch...I see value with saints winning by 7 but at -7 value is gone hope you can shop around for a better line
 
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Posted: #152
What kinda money you placing on each , afn?
 
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Posted: #153
Quote Originally Posted by Howell83:

Also what is your ranking of your picks as in 5star-1star etc. been reading your progress! Great job last week. Keep it up!

Comparing the percentages these lines are so sharp I'm playing all picks at 2units each...the STL SF numbers I posted earlier are so close gotta take the +3 home dog rams...I took the square plays early for value as this week 4 is sharp.  Given the games on the board these square picks are the only games with value given the lines
 
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Posted: #154
AFN thanks for all the info man!! Love reading the thread

Btw for everyone looking for stats for data programs, repole.com has a pull straight to an excel spreadsheet. I typically use this when I play around with stat crunching. Thought this may help everyone.

Looking forward to another good week! Best of luck AFN, beat those books!
 
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Posted: #155
Congrats on last week, i'm definitely a fan of yours. I have had good luck with my picks so far, but i'm terrible with money management... Anyway you can start adding dollar values to each of your plays, I think it could really help some of us degenerates. Plus I don't always have enough money to bet 5 games an afternoon, this way I could wager the games that your data suggests are the best plays. By the way thanks for sharing your plays with strangers. Keep up the good work, about time the books start losing some of their money.
 
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Posted: #156
Quote Originally Posted by plopez14325:

Congrats on last week, i'm definitely a fan of yours. I have had good luck with my picks so far, but i'm terrible with money management... Anyway you can start adding dollar values to each of your plays, I think it could really help some of us degenerates. Plus I don't always have enough money to bet 5 games an afternoon, this way I could wager the games that your data suggests are the best plays. By the way thanks for sharing your plays with strangers. Keep up the good work, about time the books start losing some of their money.

Yes 2units ($200) each on week 4 picks...it's even better if the games land at the right times such as early game with Seahawks...afternoon game cowboys then Monday night saints...kinda get a feel if games are going well or if its gonna be a horrible week 
 
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Posted: #157
Quote Originally Posted by AFNfootballnerd:

TNF... SF @ STL

Offense- 

SF -12% STL -16%

Defense-

SF 8% STL 10%

Books spot on with the line at 3...numbers are so close...gotta take the home dog in this one

Pick Rams +3 


Taking Seattle -2.5 now....public might push it to -3 


How many games back are you using to calculate your off and deff rating percentages.
thanks
 
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Posted: #158

AFN, I followed you for much of last year and thank you for helping put some of us on the correct side to build a little bankroll. Looks like it took till week 3 to generate the necessary data for your system. Looking forward to the rest of the season                 

BOL and Thanks

 
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Posted: #159
I love when people ask about how someone got a particular number.  The books offer different lines and you can even shop for alternate lines if the book makes it affordable.  Seahawks are -110 at -2.5 right now on 5dimes for example.
 
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Posted: #160
Rams +3! Locked n Loaded
 
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Posted: #161
thxs. for posting early AFN....bol on your pix...again great job in week 3...
 
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Posted: #162
Best of luck to you!!!!....Enjoy the read!!!!....
 
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Posted: #163
Thanks AFN...for sharing...and BEST OF LUCK TO YOU WARRIOR BROTHER...

 
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Posted: #164
What about Tampa Bay -2.5? And Eagles +11 having more than a week to prepare and re-energize that fast paced offense.
 
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Posted: #165
 
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Posted: #166
philly has no defence,denver will win by at least 2 td's
 
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Posted: #167
afl sae "These your picks? Trolling me that I'm betting like a square but your playing favorite Moneylines..."

ummm doo u kno Y point spreads were created?????. cuz boo kies make more $$$$ from dem dan day doo fra M/L.
 
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Posted: #168
Quote Originally Posted by Debo71:

What about Tampa Bay -2.5? And Eagles +11 having more than a week to prepare and re-energize that fast paced offense.
I would leave tb vs ari alone,especially now,sense they benched there qb.....good luck
 
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Posted: #169
Quote Originally Posted by trust-me:

1trust-me62-­25-­271.26%+­17250ViewView


i doo
 
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Posted: #170
(A)(F)(N) ==> do you bet on College football. Any thoughts, based on your system analysis, on GT / VT game tomorrow at 7:30 pm Est?

As always, thanks for the input.
 
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Posted: #171
i have an idiot for a bookie its his first year, he uses scoresandodds for everything except the nfl, in which case he makes his own lines.  for example he had pittsburgh +7 for snf and oakland at +21 on mnf.  I know he won big sunday night, which may be why hes still making his own lines... this week he has the rams at +6... do you guys think I should make this a $500 game, or do I stick to the $200 bet and see if I can get a bankroll started.  If i wager 500 and lose i would be done for the week, but getting a free 3 points is tempting.
 
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Posted: #172
Quote Originally Posted by plopez14325:

i have an idiot for a bookie its his first year, he uses scoresandodds for everything except the nfl, in which case he makes his own lines.  for example he had pittsburgh +7 for snf and oakland at +21 on mnf.  I know he won big sunday night, which may be why hes still making his own lines... this week he has the rams at +6... do you guys think I should make this a $500 game, or do I stick to the $200 bet and see if I can get a bankroll started.  If i wager 500 and lose i would be done for the week, but getting a free 3 points is tempting.

Money management...anything can happen...I'm merely trying to provide stats as an angle to get an edge...the NFL can be brutal for example...broncos raiders...broncos clearly covering the spread and Ball fumbles the ball for a raiders backdoor cover. I could even go 0-4 for all I know...the NFL can turn on a dime...I wouldn't be suprised if I lost all 4 and end up with 9-9 record....
 
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Posted: #173
Quote Originally Posted by PowerHouse1:

(A)(F)(N) ==> do you bet on College football. Any thoughts, based on your system analysis, on GT / VT game tomorrow at 7:30 pm Est?

As always, thanks for the input.

Nope...I bet college rarely...can't deal with the 30 minute halftime breaks
 
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Posted: #174
darn the LA what a half behind line up tonight
 
 
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Posted: #175
Thanks AFN were from buffalo and all bills fans, but after how horrible the team and especially EJ Manuel played he changed the bills from +3.5 to +8, would you be able to tell me if your data would suggest that being a good bet,  On one hand its in Buffalo, but on the other the bills entire secondary is injured,,, any thoughts?
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