All Forums | NFL Betting

2013 crunching the numbers...

...
Participants:
Search model icon
Views: 79113
Posts: 353
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Aug, 2011
Posts: 150
Posted: #201
this proves that the NFL is luck. plain and simple. there is no "system" that works. It's luck week in and week out. you people need to stop following cappers on here and just pick your own games based on whatever you choose. Which mascot is better, etc or some stupid garbage like that. Because its all luck. On that, i'll wish you all "good luck"
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2013
Posts: 67
Posted: #202
Well sparty you were right Dallas didn't cover, but dude are you serious you took cincy, Chicago and Seattle ML and not only do the bears and Bengals lose out right but then you take Seattle ML, when they covered the 2.5 spread... How much did you lose this weekend?
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2013
Posts: 67
Posted: #203
oh and you also said take the money line in the bills game, that was a horrible play.  I really did not like the Dallas play, but I took em for $200 because I had early success, betting KC, Sea, Buf, Cle, and the lions for a total of $500 plus the $210 I had going into the day.  However I lost the Pitt bet, and dallas right after, so I ended up at $340 before the SNF game.  So after raging about how bad the cowboys D was, I put $300 on New England and thank god I won, i was very worried when atl was down 7 at the 10 with a minute to play.... anyways does anyone have any suggestions on how to play the monday night game, at this point im open to a parlay, a teaser or anything else you guys can come up with. 
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2013
Posts: 67
Posted: #204
By the way AFN 2-2 is not bad, and you're the reason I bet Buffalo so you can throw that one in the win column... I think there is little doubt the bills got a steal with kiko alonso, bc based on his play he was a top ten pick and he has to be one of the best lbs in the nfl, what a pleasant surprise

 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Nov, 2012
Posts: 3989
Posted: #205
Quote Originally Posted by xianshino:

this proves that the NFL is luck. plain and simple. there is no "system" that works. It's luck week in and week out. you people need to stop following cappers on here and just pick your own games based on whatever you choose. Which mascot is better, etc or some stupid garbage like that. Because its all luck. On that, i'll wish you all "good luck"

It's the NFL..one week numbers look good the next week numbers didnt match what was presented...could be 3 and 19 and in 2 plays its a touchdown...this game is sick and can mess with you mentally...but your gonna take hits to your bankroll at times...just gotta take the hits one week and on to the next...it's a long season bud welcome to betting the NFL....

NFL 10-9-1


 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Nov, 2012
Posts: 3989
Posted: #206
Quote Originally Posted by plopez14325:

By the way AFN 2-2 is not bad, and you're the reason I bet Buffalo so you can throw that one in the win column... I think there is little doubt the bills got a steal with kiko alonso, bc based on his play he was a top ten pick and he has to be one of the best lbs in the nfl, what a pleasant surprise


Nice...wish I took buffalo and not the horrible Dallas defense 

Correction NFL 10-8-1 pending saints -6 MNF
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Aug, 2013
Posts: 1
Posted: #207
Yo AFN,

Would you be down to work with me to put together a nicer looking spreadsheet output for all your numbers? This way you can just drop everything in and post a link to the output image each week along with your picks.

I noticed people are always asking for the numbers on dif games, and I myself would also like to see all of them each week.

Thanks for taking the time to post for all of us here and friend/PM me if you'd be interested in working together.
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2009
Posts: 25
Posted: #208
I agree with Get Chipsy. A spreadsheet would be greatly appreciated. 

Keep it up. 

F!
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Aug, 2007
Posts: 93
Posted: #209
Quote Originally Posted by plopez14325:

By the way AFN 2-2 is not bad, and you're the reason I bet Buffalo so you can throw that one in the win column... I think there is little doubt the bills got a steal with kiko alonso, bc based on his play he was a top ten pick and he has to be one of the best lbs in the nfl, what a pleasant surprise

Lopez,

are you with it with your man AFN? Gosh.
anyhow, AFN is 1-2 right now. See

Rams+3

Seahawks -2.5

Cowboys -2

Saints -6

counting oft handed comments -- arbitrarily is  lest I digress in a conversation about a gambler's ability to remember would of ..could of

 Also, you must be very fresh at betting cause 2-2 long run = bookies favorite customer. Why u ask? Cause you win enough to keep coming back (and bringing more $$) and losing big $$$$$ in the LT. 0-4 would be better cause that is a quick exit and realization that betting is only for hommies.

As far as my picks?  

MOney LIne KIng Plays (Mo Li Kip) "where free money lies" (TM)

   Ravens -175 ($700 to win $400) (-700)

Kansas City -210 ($840 to win $400) (+400)

Seattle -150 ($1500 to win $1000) (+1000)

Cinci -210 (Adam Jones yay $210 to win $100) (-210)

Chicago +125 ($400 to win $500)  (-400)

New Orleans (pending)

 -700+400+1000-210-400 = +90 never doubt Mo Li Kip

 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Nov, 2012
Posts: 3989
Posted: #210
Quote Originally Posted by imsparty1:

Lopez,

are you with it with your man AFN? Gosh.
anyhow, AFN is 1-2 right now. See

Rams+3

Seahawks -2.5

Cowboys -2

Saints -6

counting oft handed comments -- arbitrarily is  lest I digress in a conversation about a gambler's ability to remember would of ..could of

 Also, you must be very fresh at betting cause 2-2 long run = bookies favorite customer. Why u ask? Cause you win enough to keep coming back (and bringing more $$) and losing big $$$$$ in the LT. 0-4 would be better cause that is a quick exit and realization that betting is only for hommies.

As far as my picks?  

MOney LIne KIng Plays (Mo Li Kip) "where free money lies" (TM)

   Ravens -175 ($700 to win $400) (-700)

Kansas City -210 ($840 to win $400) (+400)

Seattle -150 ($1500 to win $1000) (+1000)

Cinci -210 (Adam Jones yay $210 to win $100) (-210)

Chicago +125 ($400 to win $500)  (-400)

New Orleans (pending)

 -700+400+1000-210-400 = +90 never doubt Mo Li Kip


I usually ignore trolls but can't help myself...YOUR picking Moneylines...anybody can pick Moneylines...might as well play office pool with your coworkers and pick who's gonna win straight up every week..If your picking and winning ATS your more then welcome to contribute to the thread 
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2013
Posts: 5
Posted: #211
Hey All,

Long time lurker, first time poster. I have been following your plays since last year, and made a lot of $, combining your analytics and my knowledge/strategy. Thanks for the tips so far. This year I have been getting killed early, but like your system, i'm catching up. If the saints continue this pace, I should finally be in the black for the season. 

One thing I notice is that, your system gives you hints as to who will win. I am guessing it also projects scores. If not, it sure helps with over/under plays. For example, the saints was your pick, and if they win, most likely the game goes over, which it has ( and i've played). I also did the chiefs and under vs the eagles on TNF. Just a thought if your system also gives insight on that...
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Nov, 2012
Posts: 3989
Posted: #212
Quote Originally Posted by bigbets2make:

Hey All,

Long time lurker, first time poster. I have been following your plays since last year, and made a lot of $, combining your analytics and my knowledge/strategy. Thanks for the tips so far. This year I have been getting killed early, but like your system, i'm catching up. If the saints continue this pace, I should finally be in the black for the season. 

One thing I notice is that, your system gives you hints as to who will win. I am guessing it also projects scores. If not, it sure helps with over/under plays. For example, the saints was your pick, and if they win, most likely the game goes over, which it has ( and i've played). I also did the chiefs and under vs the eagles on TNF. Just a thought if your system also gives insight on that...
I've been tracking the unders and overs and its a good thing you pointed totals out because it seems reliable given the percentages...I need more weeks to see if the trends continue to start wagering on totals....

As far as the percentages go it sometimes comes down to how you feel a team is matched up to take the numbers (percentages) on both sides of the ball and make a capping decision for example...

NE @ ATL

Offense-

NE -10% ATL 19%

Defense-

NE -18% ATL 7%

Bad offense on the road gotta take ATL in a route 

Pick ATL -3 

Now looking back on my pick I assumed Brady would continue to struggle on the road with a rookie receiving core and a -10% offense

Yet the patriots defense was at -18% vs a ATL offense at 19%

So -18% - 19% = a whopping 1% offense for ATL which negated the falcons offense....

So I had to make a decision...and clearly made the wrong pick because a New England defense negated ATL offense and was getting +3 the numbers were there in front of my face but I made the wrong capping decision assuming Brady would struggle on the road...
The program provides the numbers it's how you cap the matchup with the numbers is the key

 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Apr, 2011
Posts: 818
Posted: #213
AFN! wanted to chime in here, i support your thread and work  

keep it up and you can count on me for my further analysis, i study the game with "before the fact" science, so i understand value in core numbers (relevant real time analysis) so we can get paid accordingly. MLB is onto playoffs mode now, so i can go hard in crunching full NFL. ill look to contribute here to confirm ur system numbers with my thorough knowledge of all teams tangibles and intangibles. We will do great work, today i laid a ton offshore and local with Saints -6.5 and over 48.5. Hit all straights and parlays. This game is can be extremely rough mentally, and will spiral even the best, out of control of our emotions. (Ive been there)  we gotta stay humble and stay in the zone which is the +EV zone im lookin to stay in. Ill be around AFN! 
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2013
Posts: 67
Posted: #214
Ya I saw your numbers on the atl/ne game and with such a close match up between the atl offense and the pat defense, I took New England bc I know roddy white was banged up, which meant talib could cover jones.  I also figured that bellicheck was the superior coach and would run the ball and controlling the clock.  I also figured that the patriots offensive stats were only going to get better because they played the jets in the pouring rain, and tampa has a very good defense.  I also figured that the wrs would stop dropping so many easy catches and noticed they can all seperate... finally i didnt really think that the falcons could pressure brady, which is the only time he doesnt play well, so I went big on New England but then your report scared the garbage out of me so i called back and cut my wager in half which really sucks.  
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Aug, 2010
Posts: 2964
Posted: #215
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2013
Posts: 67
Posted: #216
interesting line this week... chiefs titans are a pick in tennesee...  one thing you have to consider is that fitzpatrick has played his best football against the chiefs, I think he had 3 great games against them in a row, both defenses are very good... so this one could get interesting, and seems like a definite under, unless fitz and smith turn the ball over... 
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2007
Posts: 68
Posted: #217

KEEP UP THE GOOD WORK AFN!!!!!  impartsy moneyliner.  how much skill it must take to bet the money line. my wife picks moneylines

 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2013
Posts: 67
Posted: #218
ya guys all we had to do was risk $10,000 and we would have won $90!  how can you not be all over his system?
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Aug, 2011
Posts: 150
Posted: #219
Quote Originally Posted by AFNfootballnerd:


It's the NFL..one week numbers look good the next week numbers didnt match what was presented...could be 3 and 19 and in 2 plays its a touchdown...this game is sick and can mess with you mentally...but your gonna take hits to your bankroll at times...just gotta take the hits one week and on to the next...it's a long season bud welcome to betting the NFL....


NFL 10-9-1





Well said AFN...well said.
 
Legend
Participation Meter
Joined: Jan, 2005
Posts: 33967
Posted: #220
Quote Originally Posted by xianshino:

this proves that the NFL is luck. plain and simple. there is no "system" that works. It's luck week in and week out. you people need to stop following cappers on here and just pick your own games based on whatever you choose. Which mascot is better, etc or some stupid garbage like that. Because its all luck. On that, i'll wish you all "good luck"

NFL is all luck ??


Luck is unpredictable..knowledge takes advantage of it.
 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Apr, 2011
Posts: 818
Posted: #221
Winners and champs create their own luck. Luck = variance, which can be accounted for once u have the in the know and how to mitigate risk and maximize ur edge and reward. Ask any ppl who win at life, they work hard to win. 
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Nov, 2012
Posts: 3989
Posted: #222
Quote Originally Posted by MikeTizzy:

Winners and champs create their own luck. Luck = variance, which can be accounted for once u have the in the know and how to mitigate risk and maximize ur edge and reward. Ask any ppl who win at life, they work hard to win. 

 Nicely said sir....

NFL 11-8

Just realized I'm not a tout so why am I picking to many games sometimes? Gotta tone down my degenerate side like forcing myself to play the rams last weekcan't get more degenerate to wager on TNF garbage fest bills and browns gonna pass on that...

Only two games I'm playing week 5

Denver -7 (5units)
Houston +6 (5units)
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Aug, 2007
Posts: 93
Posted: #223
Quote Originally Posted by plopez14325:

ya guys all we had to do was risk $10,000 and we would have won $90!  how can you not be all over his system?
Lopez,

The $90 was with New Or pending. So the $90 came from wagering $3650. Now, mind you, you were all over AFN's jock for going 2-2,so I d/n understand your attitude.

By the way, New Or M/L play paid off $5500 wagered and $2000 won. So, yay all we had to do was risk $9150 to win $2090. Horrible system; especially consdering associated risk of wagering on M/L favorites as opposed to wagering on favorites ATS. 
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Nov, 2006
Posts: 2084
Posted: #224
AFN, thanks for all your effort!!! can you provide the %s on Den, houston, and GB games??? 
 
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Aug, 2013
Posts: 50
Posted: #225
THANKS....FOR US OTHER DEGENERATES.....WHAT DOES YOUR NUMBERS SAY FOR BROWIES/ BILLS??
All Forums | NFL Betting
About Us
Contact Us
Careers
Our Team
Brand
Testimonials
Betting Guides
Sportsbook Reviews
Sports Betting News
Podcasts
Responsible Gaming
Sports Betting
US Betting Sites
Canada Betting Sites
Canada Casinos
Best Betting Apps
Contests
Streak Survivor
King of Covers
Ultimate Race
Office Pools
The Covers community has
618,670
lifetime members worldwide
Covers 25 Years Logo Established in 1995,
Covers is the world
leader in sports
betting information.
Site Map Help Privacy Terms of Service youtube logo facebook logo twitter logo instagram logo linkedin logo google news logo
Covers is verified safe by: Evalon Logo GPWA Logo GDPR Logo GeoTrust Logo Evalon Logo
Copyright © 1995 - 2024 CS Media Limited All Rights Reserved.

If you choose to make use of any information on this website including online sports betting services from any websites that may be featured on this website, we strongly recommend that you carefully check your local laws before doing so.It is your sole responsibility to understand your local laws and observe them strictly.Covers does not provide any advice or guidance as to the legality of online sports betting or other online gambling activities within your jurisdiction and you are responsible for complying with laws that are applicable to you in your relevant locality.Covers disclaims all liability associated with your use of this website and use of any information contained on it.As a condition of using this website, you agree to hold the owner of this website harmless from any claims arising from your use of any services on any third party website that may be featured by Covers.