2015 NFL playoff thread...

Sorry to those who have posted.  I am out in Vegas with the family and am trying to squeeze in seeing shows and eating nice dinners with the sports schedule - which is a fulltime job.  But cant complain.  Been hanging a lot at the Venetian and made some bets over at Westgate.  Might get over to see the Covers crowd at Mirage tomorrow if time permits.

Just a general statement about stats, my method, and how I arrived at the Seahawks for this game...

Raw stats are objective.  But what you do with those stats is subjective.  So it is impossible for me to argue with those who post well thought out positions on the Patriots, because I also think I could write a compelling narrative backed up with stats for them also.

I use a lot of adjusted stats.  Those adjustments are my own tweaks that I have developed over time and am constantly changing.  Then I take those adjusted stats and look at what I correlate to wins and losses - ie POINTS.

So my stats model is somewhere between a photograph and an abstract painting.  It is not precise and actual - but is not 100% up to interpretation either.  I don't like raw stats to predict sporting events because they are so misinterpreted.  People that quote trends and stats have no place with me.

So in the end - my initial gut was that the Seahawks should be about -3.5 (not what I thought the line would be, but what I think the line based on results should be).  I then crunched the numbers and came up with something very similar - which means it is a bet for me.

That's the long and the short of it.  I know that doesn't answer a direct question about how they will handle Gronk or how the Brady will do, but it is how I come to decisions.  I do analyze those things too - but that is not part of my stats model - that is part of my "gut" process.

So in the end - this is not a huge wager for me.  Im not making a stand on the seahawks or anything.  It very well may be a one possession game.

GL all.  I have to go ride a ferris wheel or something.

And thanks for all of the kind words.  I always read these threads and am amazed that anyone actually cares what I have to say.,...

I have yet to take family to Vegas, great job in that alone lol.

Riding with the Hawks as well, best of luck.

One of the smartest things I have heard on this site in a long time

Pats PK

Under 1st 1/2

Ran in to Jon Campbell and the Covers crew at Mirage.

Nice guy.

And some dude with a Happy Gilmore sized 25k check.

Crazy SB.

Some thoughts...

I don't have a problem with throwing the ball on the play everyone thinks is so dumb.  It was second down, and the real problem is that Seattle burned 2 timeouts already - so they only had one left.

You either run on 2nd and call a timeout, and then the Pats KNOW you have to throw on third down.  Or you throw on 2nd where they don't know if you run or throw, and then run on third and fourth.

You can argue the playcall itself - the slant - but I don't think you can criticize the call to pass too much.  Its not maybe what I would have done - but it certainly isn't the dumbest playcall in the history of football like everyone is making it out to be.

I also am not sure what to make of Belichik not calling a timeout after the first down run by Seattle.  I am surprised.  In the end, it probably won the game for them, but I don't think it was the right thing to do.

I also thought that NE might let them score on first down.  Once again, they won the game because they didn't let them score - but with a minute left I think that is the right move.

I had a pretty nice negative swing on that play.  That's not fun at all.  But it was a great game and a great season.

GL

The last several minutes of that game had almost every strategy dilemma you could think of.

I actually think most of the decisions were wrong - but with results bias - everyone is going to assume they were right.

Certainly Seattle wasting timeouts was not smart.  I think NE should have called a timeout with a minute left.  And I think NE should have let them score after calling a timeout after first down.  I would have let them score on second down from the one yard line, NE would have had one timeout left and about 50 seconds to get a FG to tie.

But NE won in spite of what I think are some poor decisions - but I do admit they were very close calls.