2015 NFL playoff thread...

Yes, but you aren't going to find that half point from +6.5 to +7 for 15 cents.

Lets talk real world...

That half point is almost always 20 to 25 cents.  And in the case that I posted the 6.5, it is a reduced juice market.  A 10 cent market vs a 20 cent market on the +7.

I try to make it simple when I post plays here - with lines that everyone can get.  So if I post a +7 line that is overpriced vs a 6.5 line that is cheap, I am doing a disservice just to protect a pick for my covers reputation or whatever.

If I personally had the choice of taking Det +6.5 -100 or Det +7 -125 I would take the +6.5 -100.

Now I am absolutely sure that all of this talk almost guarantees that the Cowboys will win by exactly 7.....

That 'write-up' is forgetting one key aspect about that game.

Ahmad Bradshaw isn't mentioned and he accounted for almost 100 yards of offense.

Colts have absolutely no running game and Bradshaw is long gone.

This a one-dimensional team, a great one-dimensional team, but one-dimensional at that.

I didn't see that line at -7 -125. I saw it at -7 -110 and wrote from there but I believe those were your lines.

0-2 yesterday, 2-0 today and won some money overall.

That Detroit game was razor thin.

On to next week.

Anyone know why Chris Christie loves the Cowboys?

That fat f uck might get in trouble at home for rooting out of state.

There were about 10 plays in the last 9 minutes of that Detroit game that could have taken it either way.

Crazy.

You know if he runs for President you will see those clips of his jigglyness all over the place.

I can never understand a grown man acting like that unless he had money on it.

2-2, up 1.275 units

Finally back from family vaca.  The best days of family vaca are the day you get there, and the day you leave.

Picks for this weekend.  All current bettable lines.

1.  Balt +6.5 +105 (1.5 units)
2.  Sea -11 -102 (3 units)
3.  Packers -5.5 -105 (2 units)
4.  Colts +7 -108 (3 units)

I am here to discuss, and should be around for the weekend.

Peace.

Talk to me about the Colts. They have the worst running attack left in the playoffs and Denver gave up the 2nd fewest rushing ypg (detroit). Obviously some of that was due to Denver being up most games and teams passing....Is this a partial fade of Manning and his ever weakening arm?

Any thoughts on totals? Only game I like Over is Balt/NE. I see no reason both teams cant hit mid 20s. I think either Seattle wins 31-3 or is a 20-13 game. With Rodgers hurt, I expect an extra dose of Lacy, which will mean far fewer plays than normal, and the cold will slow the Boys down somewhat. I also think CJ Anderson, much like Lacy, will see more action than normal as Peyton isnt the qb he was 5 years ago. If Luck cant hit TY deep, the Colts are gonna have problems moving the ball all game without a strong running attack

Lots of reasons point me to the Colts.  I use a lot of adjusted stats - and I can make a decent argument that their rushing stats are not that bad.  They are never going to win a game on the ground - but I don't think they need to here.  The pick is mostly that Denvers offense wont score over 21 in this game.  This total shift in philosophy - and Manning not being able to really throw the ball - has me very skeptical.  The Bengals game was a great example of it. 

7 points is a lot in the NFL and a playoff game.  Just have lots of stats that I can make a case with - and my gut is screaming Colts.

I don't normally bet totals - but I did make one of the few (I think 4 total this year) bets on the Colts / Broncos under.  I couldn't argue with your analysis of Pats / Ravens - should be high scoring - unless Flacco is sitting on his behind all day because he is getting pressured.  That is the key to this one I feel.  Could see the Pack / Cowboys going under, and something tells me Seattle is going to put up a big number on Carolina.

Anyway - no total betting for me except for a small play on Colts Broncos under.  Very small.