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    All Forums | NFL Betting Forum

    4 huge trends/stats that cannot be ignored this weekend!!!

    «First Previous 123 Next Last»
    MJ2345
    Small_Face_100s
    shrewdie
    DumbWalrus
    gollum
    ...
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    «First Previous 123 Next Last»
     
    MJ2345
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    Posted: Jan. 20, 2011 - 1:41 AM ET #26

    The last one i am going to have to look at the out right underdog on and then fav on the road one.I got it from another thread have to ck it.You know it could be out right underdog winner on the road and then fav on the road the next gm.But anyway the other 3 are great
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    The last one i am going to have to look at the out right underdog on and then fav on the road one.I got it from another thread have to ck it.You know it could be out right underdog winner on the road and then fav on the road the next gm.But anyway the other 3 are great
     
    Small_Face_100s
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    Posted: Jan. 20, 2011 - 2:28 AM ET #27

    WHO CARES....BEARS and JETS is the Superbowl we're getting and there is NO stat to predict that.


    If you live Franks

    BET:

    BEARS ML
    JETS ML

    You have been warned
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    WHO CARES....BEARS and JETS is the Superbowl we're getting and there is NO stat to predict that.


    If you live Franks

    BET:

    BEARS ML
    JETS ML

    You have been warned
     
    shrewdie
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    Posted: Jan. 20, 2011 - 3:13 AM ET #28

    Parody??

    1.
    a. A literary or artistic work that imitates the characteristic style of an author or a work for comic effect or ridicule. See Synonyms at caricature.
    b. The genre of literature comprising such works.
    2. Something so bad as to be equivalent to intentional mockery; a travesty: The trial was a parody of justice.

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    Parody??

    1.
    a. A literary or artistic work that imitates the characteristic style of an author or a work for comic effect or ridicule. See Synonyms at caricature.
    b. The genre of literature comprising such works.
    2. Something so bad as to be equivalent to intentional mockery; a travesty: The trial was a parody of justice.

     
    DumbWalrus
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    Posted: Jan. 20, 2011 - 3:35 AM ET #29

    Seattle was a #3 seed.   Thus, seeds are irrelevant.
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    Seattle was a #3 seed.   Thus, seeds are irrelevant.
     
    gollum
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    Posted: Jan. 20, 2011 - 4:23 AM ET #30

    good stuff i'm rollin with both home teams this weekend, good luck
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    good stuff i'm rollin with both home teams this weekend, good luck
     
    MJ2345
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    Posted: Jan. 20, 2011 - 10:04 AM ET #31

    Quote Originally Posted by DumbWalrus:

    Seattle was a #3 seed.   Thus, seeds are irrelevant.



    Wrong they acted like a 3 seed in the playoffs last time i ckd they knocked off the superbowl champ NO.Go ahead take GB and the Jets see how it turns out
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    Quote Originally Posted by DumbWalrus:

    Seattle was a #3 seed.   Thus, seeds are irrelevant.



    Wrong they acted like a 3 seed in the playoffs last time i ckd they knocked off the superbowl champ NO.Go ahead take GB and the Jets see how it turns out
     
    MJ2345
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    Posted: Jan. 20, 2011 - 10:08 AM ET #32

    Quote Originally Posted by DumbWalrus:

    Seattle was a #3 seed.   Thus, seeds are irrelevant.



    LOL Obviously over the last 40 yrs seeds arent irrelevant as they have held true.
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    Quote Originally Posted by DumbWalrus:

    Seattle was a #3 seed.   Thus, seeds are irrelevant.



    LOL Obviously over the last 40 yrs seeds arent irrelevant as they have held true.
     
    suckerg
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    Posted: Jan. 20, 2011 - 10:17 AM ET #33

    good stuff. i love trends like this .
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    good stuff. i love trends like this .
     
    bushman9
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    Posted: Jan. 20, 2011 - 12:16 PM ET #34

    Quote Originally Posted by MJ2345:

    1.In the last 40 years there has at least been a 1 or 2 seed in the superbowl.#2 Pitt and #2 Bears left

    2.A team going for their 3rd win in a row on the road in the playoffs is 2-10.Jets and GB 

    3.A team in the playoffs  that has scored 40+ pts is 2-17 ATS.GB

    4.An out right underdog winner favored on the road next week is about 22% ATS.GB




    This year has been one of substantial parity in the league, with no one dominant team stepping up until the Patriots around mid-season.  Even as good as the Pats looked this year, we can see now that they were a flawed favorite, far from the juggernauts that were the Colts and Saints last season (the two teams last season aside from the Vikings who were on another level from the rest of the league).  I'd go on to argue that the Bears and the Steelers are not traditional #2 seeds and cannot be lumped in to traditional trends such as the above.  The Jets are just as talented if not more so than the Steelers.  The defenses are about equal, while the offensive line and running game is a better unit for the Jets and the Steelers have the somewhat substantial edge at QB.

    To furthur my point about the Steelers being a "mediocre" #2 seed, let's look at their regular season.  12-4 record, with losses to the Saints, Ravens, Pats, and Jets (4 playoff teams).  They had two wins against playoff teams at home against the Falcons in OT and against the Ravens.  The Jets had a 11-5 regular season with losses to the Ravens, Packers, Dolphins, Pats, and Bears (4 playoff teams).  Just like the Steelers, they have two wins over playoff teams (Pats and Steelers).  While the Jets won several "squeakers" over marginal opponents, the Steelers had the same breaks go their way in their wins over the Dolphins and Bills in OT.  All in all these teams had very similar seasons.

    I won't go as far in depth with the Bears but I will say they are one of the most fraudulent #2 seeds in a while.  You'd be hard pressed to find people who think they are a better team than the #6 seed Packers, who may very well be the best team standing in the playoffs.

    My point is that seeds mean very little in this years scenario.  That being said it would not surprise me if the two home teams win this weekend as nothing in the NFL surprises me anymore.  If Green Bay plays up to potential they should win this game but at this point they are being offered at a premium price and will be hard pressed to dominate in the fashion of their prior two games. 


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    Quote Originally Posted by MJ2345:

    1.In the last 40 years there has at least been a 1 or 2 seed in the superbowl.#2 Pitt and #2 Bears left

    2.A team going for their 3rd win in a row on the road in the playoffs is 2-10.Jets and GB 

    3.A team in the playoffs  that has scored 40+ pts is 2-17 ATS.GB

    4.An out right underdog winner favored on the road next week is about 22% ATS.GB




    This year has been one of substantial parity in the league, with no one dominant team stepping up until the Patriots around mid-season.  Even as good as the Pats looked this year, we can see now that they were a flawed favorite, far from the juggernauts that were the Colts and Saints last season (the two teams last season aside from the Vikings who were on another level from the rest of the league).  I'd go on to argue that the Bears and the Steelers are not traditional #2 seeds and cannot be lumped in to traditional trends such as the above.  The Jets are just as talented if not more so than the Steelers.  The defenses are about equal, while the offensive line and running game is a better unit for the Jets and the Steelers have the somewhat substantial edge at QB.

    To furthur my point about the Steelers being a "mediocre" #2 seed, let's look at their regular season.  12-4 record, with losses to the Saints, Ravens, Pats, and Jets (4 playoff teams).  They had two wins against playoff teams at home against the Falcons in OT and against the Ravens.  The Jets had a 11-5 regular season with losses to the Ravens, Packers, Dolphins, Pats, and Bears (4 playoff teams).  Just like the Steelers, they have two wins over playoff teams (Pats and Steelers).  While the Jets won several "squeakers" over marginal opponents, the Steelers had the same breaks go their way in their wins over the Dolphins and Bills in OT.  All in all these teams had very similar seasons.

    I won't go as far in depth with the Bears but I will say they are one of the most fraudulent #2 seeds in a while.  You'd be hard pressed to find people who think they are a better team than the #6 seed Packers, who may very well be the best team standing in the playoffs.

    My point is that seeds mean very little in this years scenario.  That being said it would not surprise me if the two home teams win this weekend as nothing in the NFL surprises me anymore.  If Green Bay plays up to potential they should win this game but at this point they are being offered at a premium price and will be hard pressed to dominate in the fashion of their prior two games. 


     
    chargerfan10
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    Posted: Jan. 20, 2011 - 4:34 PM ET #35

    Quote Originally Posted by IgetMoney101:

    Well 40 yrs is a long span I'll give you that but how long has it been since the NFL has become a league of "parody". This is a day and age were we dont see the dominance of the 49er's in the 80's or Cowgirls in the early 90's. Those days are dead and so are the prohibited favorites getting to the SB. Of those 40 years you also have to ask yourself "Was a 6 seed ever favored over a 2 seed?"  I doubt there was such a case, just sayin.

     

    Hey idiot it's parity not parody.  why don't you nerds go back to class and learn some real shit.  

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    Quote Originally Posted by IgetMoney101:

    Well 40 yrs is a long span I'll give you that but how long has it been since the NFL has become a league of "parody". This is a day and age were we dont see the dominance of the 49er's in the 80's or Cowgirls in the early 90's. Those days are dead and so are the prohibited favorites getting to the SB. Of those 40 years you also have to ask yourself "Was a 6 seed ever favored over a 2 seed?"  I doubt there was such a case, just sayin.

     

    Hey idiot it's parity not parody.  why don't you nerds go back to class and learn some real shit.  

     
    budwiser
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    Posted: Jan. 20, 2011 - 4:40 PM ET #36

    Remember in the 80s there were only 4 teams that made each conference playoffs.  3 Division Winners and a Wildcard.

    So the chances of a 1 or 2 back then is way more than it would be wth 6 teams.
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    Remember in the 80s there were only 4 teams that made each conference playoffs.  3 Division Winners and a Wildcard.

    So the chances of a 1 or 2 back then is way more than it would be wth 6 teams.
     
    GORMY3
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    Posted: Jan. 20, 2011 - 6:39 PM ET #37

    In NFL playoff history only three times has a wild card team won three games on the road to advance to the SB. The '07 Giants-The '05 Steelers and the "85 Pats. The fact that it has happened twice in the last 5 years may augment the parity argument but I still am having a hard time wrapping my brain around the possibilty of 2 teams accomplishing this in the same season.
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    In NFL playoff history only three times has a wild card team won three games on the road to advance to the SB. The '07 Giants-The '05 Steelers and the "85 Pats. The fact that it has happened twice in the last 5 years may augment the parity argument but I still am having a hard time wrapping my brain around the possibilty of 2 teams accomplishing this in the same season.
     
    budwiser
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    Posted: Jan. 20, 2011 - 6:46 PM ET #38

    Quote Originally Posted by GORMY3:

    In NFL playoff history only three times has a wild card team won three games on the road to advance to the SB. The '07 Giants-The '05 Steelers and the "85 Pats. The fact that it has happened twice in the last 5 years may augment the parity argument but I still am having a hard time wrapping my brain around the possibilty of 2 teams accomplishing this in the same season.


    That's d*mn good odds considering they're the #6 seed and 6 teams have made the playoffs only in the last 10 or so years

    Throw that stat out the window
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    Quote Originally Posted by GORMY3:

    In NFL playoff history only three times has a wild card team won three games on the road to advance to the SB. The '07 Giants-The '05 Steelers and the "85 Pats. The fact that it has happened twice in the last 5 years may augment the parity argument but I still am having a hard time wrapping my brain around the possibilty of 2 teams accomplishing this in the same season.


    That's d*mn good odds considering they're the #6 seed and 6 teams have made the playoffs only in the last 10 or so years

    Throw that stat out the window
     
    Skipster
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    Posted: Jan. 20, 2011 - 7:29 PM ET #39

    Quote Originally Posted by budwiser:

    Remember in the 80s there were only 4 teams that made each conference playoffs.  3 Division Winners and a Wildcard.

    So the chances of a 1 or 2 back then is way more than it would be wth 6 teams.


    In 1978, a fifth seed (second wildcard team) was added to increase the number of playoff teams to 5 in each league.

    In 1990, the sixth seed (a third wild card) was added to each league.

    It's safe to say that any data from before 1978 would be pretty useless as a trend.  Obviously, no sixth seed could have advanced prior to 1990.

    Therefore, it would be much easier for a 1 or 2 seed to advance before 1978--and somewhat easier prior to 1990.

    It's probably safer to look at these trends for the past 20 years.  It's a big enough sample.
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    Quote Originally Posted by budwiser:

    Remember in the 80s there were only 4 teams that made each conference playoffs.  3 Division Winners and a Wildcard.

    So the chances of a 1 or 2 back then is way more than it would be wth 6 teams.


    In 1978, a fifth seed (second wildcard team) was added to increase the number of playoff teams to 5 in each league.

    In 1990, the sixth seed (a third wild card) was added to each league.

    It's safe to say that any data from before 1978 would be pretty useless as a trend.  Obviously, no sixth seed could have advanced prior to 1990.

    Therefore, it would be much easier for a 1 or 2 seed to advance before 1978--and somewhat easier prior to 1990.

    It's probably safer to look at these trends for the past 20 years.  It's a big enough sample.
     
    Skipster
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    Posted: Jan. 20, 2011 - 7:37 PM ET #40

    I should add that in 2002, the league went to four divisions and two wildcards in each league.
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    I should add that in 2002, the league went to four divisions and two wildcards in each league.
     
    -LB-
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    Posted: Jan. 20, 2011 - 7:41 PM ET #41

    Cool info BOL
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    Cool info BOL
     
    TorontoJoey
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    Posted: Jan. 20, 2011 - 7:45 PM ET #42

    I like PITT AND CHI so far
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    I like PITT AND CHI so far
     
    gfinger
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    Posted: Jan. 20, 2011 - 8:07 PM ET #43

    Quote Originally Posted by bushman9:



    This year has been one of substantial parity in the league, with no one dominant team stepping up until the Patriots around mid-season.  Even as good as the Pats looked this year, we can see now that they were a flawed favorite, far from the juggernauts that were the Colts and Saints last season (the two teams last season aside from the Vikings who were on another level from the rest of the league).  I'd go on to argue that the Bears and the Steelers are not traditional #2 seeds and cannot be lumped in to traditional trends such as the above.  The Jets are just as talented if not more so than the Steelers.  The defenses are about equal, while the offensive line and running game is a better unit for the Jets and the Steelers have the somewhat substantial edge at QB.

    To furthur my point about the Steelers being a "mediocre" #2 seed, let's look at their regular season.  12-4 record, with losses to the Saints, Ravens, Pats, and Jets (4 playoff teams).  They had two wins against playoff teams at home against the Falcons in OT and against the Ravens.  The Jets had a 11-5 regular season with losses to the Ravens, Packers, Dolphins, Pats, and Bears (4 playoff teams).  Just like the Steelers, they have two wins over playoff teams (Pats and Steelers).  While the Jets won several "squeakers" over marginal opponents, the Steelers had the same breaks go their way in their wins over the Dolphins and Bills in OT.  All in all these teams had very similar seasons.

    I won't go as far in depth with the Bears but I will say they are one of the most fraudulent #2 seeds in a while.  You'd be hard pressed to find people who think they are a better team than the #6 seed Packers, who may very well be the best team standing in the playoffs.

    My point is that seeds mean very little in this years scenario.  That being said it would not surprise me if the two home teams win this weekend as nothing in the NFL surprises me anymore.  If Green Bay plays up to potential they should win this game but at this point they are being offered at a premium price and will be hard pressed to dominate in the fashion of their prior two games. 




    Bears are an awesome #2, who are you kidding? Good coaches, Cutler, Urlacher, Briggs, Peppers, Tillman, Manning, Harris, Forte, Knox, Gould, Hester, and Maynard even. These guys are all legit. If you think they suck, then you just don't like the team, period. Which is fine. However they are also 11-5 ATS this year, how does a gambler not like that?  If GB was sooooo great, why did they have to win their last game to get in? Why not just go 16-0, like a great team would have? Why go to Detroit and put up a mere 3 points in Week 14 like they did? Was that Detroit defense that much better then the Bears? C'mon. All I'm seeing is people pretending that the Bears suck, mostly because they are haters really. Like how Sports Illustrated picked them to finish 28th this year. What a fuckin' joke !
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    Quote Originally Posted by bushman9:



    This year has been one of substantial parity in the league, with no one dominant team stepping up until the Patriots around mid-season.  Even as good as the Pats looked this year, we can see now that they were a flawed favorite, far from the juggernauts that were the Colts and Saints last season (the two teams last season aside from the Vikings who were on another level from the rest of the league).  I'd go on to argue that the Bears and the Steelers are not traditional #2 seeds and cannot be lumped in to traditional trends such as the above.  The Jets are just as talented if not more so than the Steelers.  The defenses are about equal, while the offensive line and running game is a better unit for the Jets and the Steelers have the somewhat substantial edge at QB.

    To furthur my point about the Steelers being a "mediocre" #2 seed, let's look at their regular season.  12-4 record, with losses to the Saints, Ravens, Pats, and Jets (4 playoff teams).  They had two wins against playoff teams at home against the Falcons in OT and against the Ravens.  The Jets had a 11-5 regular season with losses to the Ravens, Packers, Dolphins, Pats, and Bears (4 playoff teams).  Just like the Steelers, they have two wins over playoff teams (Pats and Steelers).  While the Jets won several "squeakers" over marginal opponents, the Steelers had the same breaks go their way in their wins over the Dolphins and Bills in OT.  All in all these teams had very similar seasons.

    I won't go as far in depth with the Bears but I will say they are one of the most fraudulent #2 seeds in a while.  You'd be hard pressed to find people who think they are a better team than the #6 seed Packers, who may very well be the best team standing in the playoffs.

    My point is that seeds mean very little in this years scenario.  That being said it would not surprise me if the two home teams win this weekend as nothing in the NFL surprises me anymore.  If Green Bay plays up to potential they should win this game but at this point they are being offered at a premium price and will be hard pressed to dominate in the fashion of their prior two games. 




    Bears are an awesome #2, who are you kidding? Good coaches, Cutler, Urlacher, Briggs, Peppers, Tillman, Manning, Harris, Forte, Knox, Gould, Hester, and Maynard even. These guys are all legit. If you think they suck, then you just don't like the team, period. Which is fine. However they are also 11-5 ATS this year, how does a gambler not like that?  If GB was sooooo great, why did they have to win their last game to get in? Why not just go 16-0, like a great team would have? Why go to Detroit and put up a mere 3 points in Week 14 like they did? Was that Detroit defense that much better then the Bears? C'mon. All I'm seeing is people pretending that the Bears suck, mostly because they are haters really. Like how Sports Illustrated picked them to finish 28th this year. What a fuckin' joke !
     
    gfinger
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    Posted: Jan. 20, 2011 - 8:09 PM ET #44

    The Bears also beat two of the remaining playoff teams, and didn't play Pitt. Pretty good for a so called fraudulent team.
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    The Bears also beat two of the remaining playoff teams, and didn't play Pitt. Pretty good for a so called fraudulent team.
     
    kkkwinner
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    Posted: Jan. 20, 2011 - 8:44 PM ET #45

    right now is 2011,forget about the past jerks will win this weekend
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    right now is 2011,forget about the past jerks will win this weekend
     
    buddhafoo
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    Posted: Jan. 20, 2011 - 8:51 PM ET #46

    No  # 6 seed will make it this weekend.  Pack will be sent Pack'n and the Jets will crash!
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    No  # 6 seed will make it this weekend.  Pack will be sent Pack'n and the Jets will crash!
     
    wonwiththehook
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    Posted: Jan. 20, 2011 - 9:55 PM ET #47

    Quote Originally Posted by gfinger:



    Bears are an awesome #2, who are you kidding? Good coaches, Cutler, Urlacher, Briggs, Peppers, Tillman, Manning, Harris, Forte, Knox, Gould, Hester, and Maynard even. These guys are all legit. If you think they suck, then you just don't like the team, period. Which is fine. However they are also 11-5 ATS this year, how does a gambler not like that?  If GB was sooooo great, why did they have to win their last game to get in? Why not just go 16-0, like a great team would have? Why go to Detroit and put up a mere 3 points in Week 14 like they did? Was that Detroit defense that much better then the Bears? C'mon. All I'm seeing is people pretending that the Bears suck, mostly because they are haters really. Like how Sports Illustrated picked them to finish 28th this year. What a fuckin' joke !
    I'm on that "haters" list too, can't beleive this team is where it is right now...so yes more than likely I will have my dough on the GB....I took the Bear vs NE and got it stuck in my ass.....would rather lose my cash with GB than ever lose my $$$ on Bears like that again !
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    Quote Originally Posted by gfinger:



    Bears are an awesome #2, who are you kidding? Good coaches, Cutler, Urlacher, Briggs, Peppers, Tillman, Manning, Harris, Forte, Knox, Gould, Hester, and Maynard even. These guys are all legit. If you think they suck, then you just don't like the team, period. Which is fine. However they are also 11-5 ATS this year, how does a gambler not like that?  If GB was sooooo great, why did they have to win their last game to get in? Why not just go 16-0, like a great team would have? Why go to Detroit and put up a mere 3 points in Week 14 like they did? Was that Detroit defense that much better then the Bears? C'mon. All I'm seeing is people pretending that the Bears suck, mostly because they are haters really. Like how Sports Illustrated picked them to finish 28th this year. What a fuckin' joke !
    I'm on that "haters" list too, can't beleive this team is where it is right now...so yes more than likely I will have my dough on the GB....I took the Bear vs NE and got it stuck in my ass.....would rather lose my cash with GB than ever lose my $$$ on Bears like that again !
     
    PrimeTimeBoys
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    Posted: Jan. 20, 2011 - 10:00 PM ET #48

    MJ, do you have any stats on divisional teams that meet up in the playoffs for the 3rd time of the season. Also, if team A covered both regular season games, what happens in that 3rd game?
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    MJ, do you have any stats on divisional teams that meet up in the playoffs for the 3rd time of the season. Also, if team A covered both regular season games, what happens in that 3rd game?
     
    chasman
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    Posted: Jan. 20, 2011 - 10:15 PM ET #49

    Good stuff, MJ

    Agree with your picks 

    Any o/u relevent stats?  Trends?  Thoughts?

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    Good stuff, MJ

    Agree with your picks 

    Any o/u relevent stats?  Trends?  Thoughts?

     
     
    IgetMoney101
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    Posted: Jan. 20, 2011 - 10:23 PM ET #50

    Quote Originally Posted by chargerfan10:

     

    Hey idiot it's parity not parody.  why don't you nerds go back to class and learn some real shit.  

    You know what I meant. I didn't know we were back in elementary school and we needed to spell correctly. Bunch of grown ass men worried about spelling? 
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    Quote Originally Posted by chargerfan10:

     

    Hey idiot it's parity not parody.  why don't you nerds go back to class and learn some real shit.  

    You know what I meant. I didn't know we were back in elementary school and we needed to spell correctly. Bunch of grown ass men worried about spelling? 
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