51.9999999% nfl capping winners by NFL_brosuf LOL

Thurs game extra write up.

jax only chance is to play clock management.  They have injuries and lacking a WR so they will rely on Jones to run that ball which will kill the clock.

playing the clock for jax will keep atl QB Ryans out of the ball game and that is their MO. 

playing the clock will push for the under as well....

The reason why these two teams been shooting out them under games is because they both have a pretty good enough defense. 

Jag is good at stopping the pass
ATl is good at stopping the run. 

I just do not get it at all.  I knew that them jags are going to be a let down the following week after they had 40 points, most off turnovers so that does not count.

I also said that if atl had a giant lead, they are going for the clock and well, did atl score anything in the 4th? 

I blame jags for their poor defense.  On average, they are suppose to allow atl to only 19 points.  29 is pushing it. 

Whatever, I am taking a loss on Thurs night as a learning curve.  What this means is that I am going to double up and playing TB under for sat.

TB under 47.5   2Units 

Actually, I like this under more than the one for last night actually.   If that total goes any higher by game time, I might even want to buy another unit on it. 

You really thought the Jags were going to hold the Falcons to under 20 points?

they had injuries issues so 20 is the new 40..

had it were jag's home, maybe 30. 

The NFL is rigged...point shaven fools refuses to catch the football and afraid to get hurt..

I am no football analysis guru but you are up by 2 TD, in the redzone, time running out, 4th down and you go for it?  Why not kick that field goal for the over backers to cash their ticket? 

Well the only explanation that I can give is Dallas getting a 1st down, it will be over it and it is dallas's game plan to stop the play and limit out their injuries..

Even with a field goal, you still have to play with kick off and that is prone for injuries plus many other junk plays by tb for more injuries so I think that going on 4th for dallas on their last drive is the right  game plan for their organization. 

Finally  justice was served but it was a nail biter... 

A big whooping 2Units win for the under tonight for me to cash that ticket and I'm happy.  My condolence goes out to all them over backers though..

Totals week 15  1-1
Chi over 35.5  <-- I think I might lose on this one....
philly over 44
mn over 52.5
Rams under 38.5 <,-- Cinn defense will give you nothing ya heard?
hou over 45
gb over 45.5


For this week, I have a feeling that fav will win most of them so I might not even adding any dogs to my cards for this week.  Dogs have been cashing for weeks now so how about a week where chalks win for once?  Do you believe?  Well Thurs and Sat night games, both fav won.  It is the week of the chalks. 

Giants -6.5 <--  Giants is racing with dallas.   Washington beat dallas earlier in the season so this is a revenge game for giants plus they needed this win to stay competitive with Dallas as they just won tonight.  I would not back giants up if they are not playing at home.  Have faith in Eli, just one more time and in his own house. 

Ne -7.5 <-- It is no good to buy NE now for the line has jacked up since then.  Would be good to buy NE for anything lower than 7 like at opener.  I'll play small here knowing that NE's game plan is to run them fast offense to try to score and score lots against a Tebrow team whom we know that if your score is around their score, they will shoot for a backdoor miracle. 

Cinn  -7.  <<--  Told myself to fade Rams and hoping that cinn will rape them for me.  Stupid bradford and rams cost me on MNF against seattle.  This is my revenge factor.  Cinn 5-1 ATS away. 

Az -6.5  <<-- At home, az is beast.  Cleve with no mccoy, no care no scare for me.  Az 4-2 home

Buff -2  <<--  This is my last chance I will back up them bills.  You are at home and you are playing a miami team who should be eye level and neck to neck with you.  Buff is better at home 4-2

Taking a 9 teamer parlay for fun and for the lottery...  Gotta do it man. 

Dec 18 01:00 PM Dec 18 01:00 PM Dec 18 01:00 PM Dec 18 01:00 PM Dec 18 04:05 PM Dec 18 04:15 PM Dec 18 04:15 PM Dec 18 08:25 PM

NFL NFL NFL NFL NFL NFL NFL NFL NFL

PARLAY (9 TEAMS) [307] GREEN BAY -13½-110 [307] TOTAL o45½-110 (GREEN BAY vrs KANSAS CITY) [309] TOTAL o53-110 (NEW ORLEANS vrs MINNESOTA) [315] TOTAL o45-110 (CAROLINA vrs HOUSTON) [317] TENNESSEE -6½-110 [321] DETROIT -1-110 [323] NEW ENGLAND -7½-110 [328] ARIZONA -6½-110 [329] TOTAL o44-110 (BALTIMORE vrs SAN DIEGO)

50 / 15000

one more for stupid ML that pays peanuts for fun 

Dec 18 01:00 PM Dec 18 07:05 PM Dec 18 09:00 AM Dec 18 09:00 AM Dec 18 11:00 AM Dec 18 06:30 AM Dec 18 08:30 AM

NFL NFL NHL SOC SOC SOC SOC SOC

PARLAY (8 TEAMS) [309] NEW ORLEANS -365 [319] CINCINNATI -325 [4] CHICAGO -200 [25126] GENOA PK-265 [25130] JUVENTUS -465 [25429] STADE RENNES PK-340 [25522] AJAX -600 [25529] AZ ALKMAAR PK-315

50 / 365.90

This is a wrap for this week.  Best of luck to myself, me and I 

my parlay no good..obviously.  .My ml parlay losing out on soccer games.  LOL

sides

giants - loser.  Will never play giants for the rest of the season
ne -win
cinn - wish I bought it at opener at 6.5...push on this one at -7
buff - loser...will never play buff for the rest of the season. 
az - pending but possible loser

Sides for this week, looking no good.

however..

Totals week 15  5-3
 thurs under loser
dal under winner
Chi over 35.5  winner
philly over 44 winner
mn over 52.5  winner
Rams under 38.5  winner
hou over 45 loser
gb over 45.5  loser

my sides are looking better so I will be playing the evening game on totals only. 

Looks like I will be going 6-6 for this week on everything.  Just losing out on juice.   Could of been worst like oh my gosh...

SNF:

Daygo is 1 over and 6 under when playing at home.
Balt is 2 over and 2 under when playing away. 

This shows an under game but I am not buying it.  Phillips seems like he is a better player at home and he has an impressive Dec record so I am expecting points from him. 

For tonight, Baltimore game, Over 44   3 Units...
Reasons:  Fade the public's open records or stats for money.

Hoping for a win to be up 3 Units for the week.  Lets go points..

adding

Daygo +1.5   1 Unit for action...

Reasons.   Oakland just lost so that means Balt is already in the post season.   Balt will be playing reserve and my over might be shot with balt not wanting to play..who knows..

summary

SNF

over 44  3U
Daygo +1.5 1U

adding
over 22.5 1Half  2U


lets go points man...hot dayam stupid game but why I am all over it?   Oh yes, it is the totals...I'm stroke with totals tonight..  Going hard or bust...

Took care of SNF  +6U roughly for the week.  Another positive week. 

Time to cap for MNF...  leaning the over...

With Balt losing, Big Ben will play hurt.  As long as ben is in, the over has a shot...

Not betting yet and still monitoring lines.  It is sitting at 37.5 and hoping to buy it at a better line.  Small 1U to play for action, nothing big or too confident into it... 

I will lock in my plays after I book them on Monday and I am leaning on the over for right now...

I think the total number is going to jump and lose value if I do not buy it now. 

MNF

Taking over 37.5  3U  <<-- Playing 3U instead of 1U because of my confidence reading on this game. 

I am capping this game about 46.8 total and with the actual total sitting at 37.5 which gives me about a 9.3 points of leeway. 

49ers when at home, they have 4 over and 3 under
pitts when they are away, they are 4 over and 2 under

===============================================

Small play on the sides to chase action.  It is still questionable to see if Ben is playing the whole game, half a game or whatever but 49ers has defense and with such defense, they will try to knock ben out of the game for the easy coasting.  Ben is playing hurt and like how we see them rams playing a hurt QB, I am not confident in backing up a hurting QB. 

49ers is 6-1 SU this year and 6-0 ATS while playing at home. 
Pitts is only 2-4 ATS when playing away. 

I think the line will move if I buy it later but whatever, I'll lay the 3 and taking SF -3  1U  for some cheap thrill action. 

If you are reading this, see you in the "in game thread" and best of luck to our plays...

My final thoughts..

I would play pitts if they had a healthy squad.

There is a difference between wanting to win and not getting it because you are limited.  You can still win but you have to point up stairs with 1 finger like a Tebrow..

I will give pitts all the credit due after the game and only if they win because they are really the handicap in this game.  QB hurt, other guys out, playing in another man's house, against a 6-0 ATS at home by niners, 6-1 home record, going against a former Stanford head coach so basically, you are playing against Andrew Luck  LOL

Balt loses tonight so is there any threat for pitts to have to win?  Be nice for pitts to win but they are limited.  It is still ok for pitts to lose and still be alright. 

I do not mind if pitts win tonight's game either.  Like I say, if they win, they overcome all odds and deserves the win however, it is my money and I am not going to take a chance with a limited team to do a miracle. 

Paying to see a miracle, now isn't that charming? 

Also, who say that SF has no offense?  Here is a fact.

If you averages out all the games by SF at home and wager it against pitts away games for this year, SF still exceeds pitts by 10 points so there goes your leeway..

49ers -3  1U
over 37.5  3U

Counting my cash or hear me cry after the game...whatever!!!!

sf -3 1U
over 37.5  3U

Adding for actions

49ers 1st half

sf -0.5    0.5U
over 10   0.5U

correction in bold 

my over for game looks busted.  Gotta play this here to buy it back. 

2nd half over 17.5 3U 

SF Pk   2U

1st half looks like a mirage but I'm starting to like ben as he is starting to air it out more in the 2nd half.  Could have more points before the half but time management is awful on the pitts side.  

With the points being so close to each other, expect  more points opportunity in the 2nd half as it still a 1 scoring drive game. 

if pitts win and under, I'm 9U outs over a stupid MNF game.  I hope I will not get own tonight...  Lets go points and 49ers football. 

sf -3 1U  win
over 37.5  3U lose

Adding for actions

49ers 1st half

sf -0.5    0.5U   win
over 19   0.5U  lose

2nd half over 17.5 3U  lose

SF Pk   2U  win

Ended up -3U for the day.. 

Blame on no one but pitts.   3 freaking points all 4 quarters...  Sides bet was easier to predict with ben standing in that pocket like a Christmas tree. 

Good play 49ers but with a hurt QB, I expected higher points and higher expectation out of them.   Red zone for 49ers still struggles and missing field goals which could possible be the turning points for my totals. 

whatever, it's a wrap and time to cap for next week. 

My NCAAF Bowl conviction
sides 0-0
totals 0-0

FIU -4.5  1U
Under 49  2U

gl in week 16

Thanks bro, I will be looking for your write up and tail you on necessary plays for money in many of your threads.   Best of luck to us all. 


My NCAAF Bowl conviction
sides 0-1
totals 1-0

bank +1U

FIU -4.5  1U  lose
Under 49  2U  win

My NCAAF Bowl conviction
sides 0-1
totals 1-0

bank +1U

TCU game over 56  2U 

55 total is the count...  tough break for me ouch.  I bought at a bad line. 

My NCAAF Bowl conviction
sides 0-1
totals 1-1

bank -1U

My NCAAF Bowl conviction
sides 0-1
totals 1-1

bank -1U

Boise -14  2U
Over 67  1U 

Lets get this money Mr. Stupid...

nfl thurs

hou game under 40.5  2U 

My NCAAF Bowl conviction
sides 1-1
totals 2-1

bank +2U

home run with ncaaf...

under houston MNF game...  win

today is a good day.  +5U for the day... oh yeah baby...