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51.9999999% nfl capping winners by NFL_brosuf LOL

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Posted: #276
Quote Originally Posted by smartbets:




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Posted: #277
Sol miss has a tad better offense and defense.  Either sol miss tonight or no play but for myself, I am playing scared.  Sol miss lost to UAB but won Houston to get to this point.  I think defense still wins championship.  Nevada is only good when they play at home and hawaii is not home for them.  It is closer but still not home and without their home team on their back, nevada only racks up 2 win and 4 loses while away.  Sol miss is a solid team.  They are undefeated at home and when away, they won 5 games and 2 loses, covering all 5 of them when they won SU on them away games.  Ride the sol miss train. 

sol  miss -8.5  3U

Not impressive with both teams putting up super duper over points in any of their games.  People do like the over here but I'm fading the public.  It is a bowl game so defense should be tighter if they want to win.   64 points is asking for both teams to put up 30 points each on both sides but here is the thing.  Sol miss 37 points average in season and nevada 33.  37+33 = 70 points projectile.  In bowl games, I am going to shave off 10 points for defense which will give me 60.  On defensive, nevada allows 25 while sol miss allows 21.  25+21=46 which still goes to the under. 

under 64  0.5U <<-- for action only.

Lets get this money Mr. Stupid. 
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Posted: #278
Quote Originally Posted by nfl_brosuf:

Sol miss has a tad better offense and defense.  Either sol miss tonight or no play but for myself, I am playing scared.  Sol miss lost to UAB but won Houston to get to this point.  I think defense still wins championship.  Nevada is only good when they play at home and hawaii is not home for them.  It is closer but still not home and without their home team on their back, nevada only racks up 2 win and 4 loses while away.  Sol miss is a solid team.  They are undefeated at home and when away, they won 5 games and 2 loses, covering all 5 of them when they won SU on them away games.  Ride the sol miss train. 

sol  miss -8.5  3U  loser

Not impressive with both teams putting up super duper over points in any of their games.  People do like the over here but I'm fading the public.  It is a bowl game so defense should be tighter if they want to win.   64 points is asking for both teams to put up 30 points each on both sides but here is the thing.  Sol miss 37 points average in season and nevada 33.  37+33 = 70 points projectile.  In bowl games, I am going to shave off 10 points for defense which will give me 60.  On defensive, nevada allows 25 while sol miss allows 21.  25+21=46 which still goes to the under. 

under 64  0.5U <<-- for action only.  winner

Lets get this money Mr. Stupid. 


another game bought at a bad line...shitless and giggles.  I guess I have to buy them early to get the best line or something..

My NCAAF Bowl conviction
sides 1-2
totals 3-1

bank -0.5U

mizzo -5.5  2U
under 53  1U

buying early in hoping to get the better value for Mr. Stupid.  Tired of losing off hook and bad lines... pishhhhh



CFB
STRAIGHT BET
[216] MISSOURI -5½-110

200 / 181.80

CFB
STRAIGHT BET
[216] TOTAL u53-110
(NORTH CAROLINA vrs MISSOURI)

100 / 90.90


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Posted: #279
SNF 

Taking a sucker bet with a 2 teamer parlay for small bet for fun. 

Dec 25 08:30 PM

NFL
NFL
PARLAY (2 TEAMS)
[129] TOTAL o42-110
(CHICAGO vrs GREEN BAY)
[130] GREEN BAY -12-110

20/ 52


Even my own chart sheet is telling me to take chicago and the point but I just can not do it against a cold Chicago team who is all messed up and a hot gunner at home like GB. 

GB, when playing at home averages about 40 points per game thus far.  The total is sitting at 42..hrmmmm

Them stats and figures are showing that chicago plays GB well because it is a rivalry game however, them stats are projecting from a different chicago's squad like cutler and forte.  GB also will be without jennings, 2 Tackles and a DE. 

GB will win this game SU no doubt because they do not want an embarrassment on Xmas like how they lost their ass off in KC. 

Will they cover or not?  My bet goes to the better QB and he is all that GB will need to cover...  12 is a lot of cheese.  To cover, that is 2 TD or 1 TD and 2 FGs.  It is still a 2 or 3 possession game. 

This is the game that GB will rebound from their loss in KC.  No back to back loses for GB or they will be a laughing stock of the NFL and the talk of tinsel town for the next coming weeks. 

Lets go Green Bay wackers some bears.  
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Posted: #280
I wonder if I can hit the middle with this teaser here


Dec 25 08:30 PM

NFL
NFL
2 team teaser
[129] CHICAGO +18-110 (B+6)
[129] TOTAL o36-110 (B+6)
(CHICAGO vrs GREEN BAY)

100/ 83.30

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Posted: #281
2nd half

buying over 20.5 only...  2U

looks like chi has offense and rogers and company offense is about to go on auto drive...

I'm taking the over for the 2nd half. 

lets get this money stupid... 
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Posted: #282
Well I be darn.... A clean sweep for me on MNF.   *pat on the back*

I won the 2 teamer parley riding with gb and 2 teamer teaser riding on chicago +18. 

I also won on the 2nd half over as well. 

I'm getting good at this.  Money in the bank. 

Time to cap MNF.  It is going to be a tricky one here. 
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Posted: #283
Good Luck bro.
 
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Posted: #284
Quote Originally Posted by nfl_brosuf:

Well I be darn.... A clean sweep for me on MNF.   *pat on the back*

I won the 2 teamer parley riding with gb and 2 teamer teaser riding on chicago +18. 

I also won on the 2nd half over as well. 

I'm getting good at this.  Money in the bank. 

Time to cap MNF.  It is going to be a tricky one here. 

MNF hasn't happened yet.
 
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Posted: #285
Quote Originally Posted by NYBartender:


MNF hasn't happened yet.


LOL  you got me there.... These sat games and then 1 game on sunday do feel like a monday though. 

Glad you corrected me or else I would not wake up for work in thinking it was tuesday.   Thanks for the giggles kind sir. 


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Posted: #286
Quote Originally Posted by LasVegasLord:

Good Luck bro.


thanks for the kind blessings there Mr. Totals.  



For Monday Night Football. 


Narleans is like them GB wackers whom can put up 40 points in their own house.  Narleans averages about 39.8 points in their own house this season.  Totals now sitting at 52.   What this means is that ATL, has to fill in the gaps to play catch up with Narleans if they want to be competitive.   Narleans 40 and ATL 12.  Can ATL give me 12 points?  Well lets see here.  ATL pushes about 21 points when they play away this season. 

39+21 = 60 points projectile if both teams play their average.  The total is sitting at 52.  60-52 = 12 points leeway. 

Ok, so lets say that ATL will spank narleans in their own house.  12 (leeway) + atl averages at 21 = 33.  Narleans will then needs about 20 points for the over to cash.  The tick question is can Narleans get 3 TD in the MNF game?  Atl is also dome and that is turf playing field.  You have 2 teams who are dome and what I am smelling is a high shooting game here.  The stats and trends are showing an under game but that is public information and I'm fading the public on this one. 

NEW ORLEANS is 9-0 UNDER off 2 consecutive road wins since 1992.

Do remember that stats are not always accurate.  This stats here is since 1992.  Was Drew brees included in that stats? 

I'm playing the over 52 for 1U

================================================

Regarding sides, Narleans barely spanked ATL in their own house this season.  Well it was a contested game for narleans because ATL and in their own house and with Matt Ryan is a dangerous place to play.  Some may say, what about the revenge factor?  I say what about it?  Did Balt give pitts a revenge factor?  Did Pitts give Cinn a revenge factor?  Did 49ers give Seattle a revenge factor?  So what about ATL needs the win to get away from Narleans in the first round of the playoff?  As much as ATL wants it, they have to earn it.  Nothing is given for free in the NFL unless it is a needed win against a sub below par team.  Remember that what we want is not always what is reality.  We wanted Chicago to win to get that playoff hopes but what happened?  We wanted Jets the same kind of love but what happened?  Capping games by moving building blocks is a dangerous game to play.  I know because I lost my azz off doing thus.  NOT NO MORE. 

If ATL wants it, they have to earn it.  They have to go against a hot Narleans team who is 6-0 at home and 6-0 ATS while playing at home.  They  have to go against one of the hottest QB in the league, Drew Brees.  

If this game was in Hotlanta, I will be on Hotlanta but it is not.  ATL is 3-4 ATS when they are away.  They can go 4-4 after MNF but it will not be easy. 

My money is on Narleans -6.5 and hoping that Narleans will win by a Touchdown.  I already do not like the 6.5 number but anything more, I'll pass on this game since the last 3 times these two squads played, it was a nail biter by a field goal.  Home field advantage is already 3 points so I'm seeing this game as Narleans -3.5.  Trend for the lovelies. 

Play On - Favorites of -160 to -475 vs. the money line (NEW ORLEANS) after a win by 14 or more points against opponent after scoring 30 points or more last game
47-6 over the last 10 seasons.  ( 88.7% | 0.0 units )
2-1 this year.  ( 66.7% | 0.0 units )

Narleans -6.5   0.5U  <<-- for action only

Lets get this money Mr. Stupid and best of luck to us all. 
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Posted: #287
Quote Originally Posted by nfl_brosuf:



another game bought at a bad line...shitless and giggles.  I guess I have to buy them early to get the best line or something..

My NCAAF Bowl conviction
sides 1-2
totals 3-1

bank -0.5U

mizzo -5.5  2U
under 53  1U

buying early in hoping to get the better value for Mr. Stupid.  Tired of losing off hook and bad lines... pishhhhh



CFB
STRAIGHT BET
[216] MISSOURI -5½-110

200 / 181.80

CFB
STRAIGHT BET
[216] TOTAL u53-110
(NORTH CAROLINA vrs MISSOURI)

100 / 90.90




Won the 2U and loss the 1U. 

My NCAAF Bowl conviction
sides 2-2
totals 3-2

bank +0.5U

time to cap some purdue game.  More likely, I will be on Purdue. 


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Posted: #288
NcaaF Tues

Purdue -3  2U
over 60 1U 

Louville +1.5  1U
under 44.5  0.5U 

also putting it all in a parlay for fun. 

Dec 27 04:30 PM
Dec 27 08:00 PM
Dec 27 08:00 PM

CFB
CFB
CFB
CFB
PARLAY (4 TEAMS)
[217] TOTAL o60-110
(WESTERN MICHIGA vrs PURDUE)
[218] PURDUE -3-105
[219] LOUISVILLE +1½-110
[220] TOTAL u44-110
(LOUISVILLE vrs NC STATE)

50 / 513.10



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Posted: #289
2nd half.

Narleans -3  0.5U
Over 27.5   0.5U

lets get this homerun money Mr. Stupid. 

I just want to see Breez getting his record tonight and week 17 will be less pressure for him to get that record.   Do it for your own home crowd Brees.   I do believe. 


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Posted: #290
Quote Originally Posted by nfl_brosuf:



thanks for the kind blessings there Mr. Totals.  



For Monday Night Football. 


Narleans is like them GB wackers whom can put up 40 points in their own house.  Narleans averages about 39.8 points in their own house this season.  Totals now sitting at 52.   What this means is that ATL, has to fill in the gaps to play catch up with Narleans if they want to be competitive.   Narleans 40 and ATL 12.  Can ATL give me 12 points?  Well lets see here.  ATL pushes about 21 points when they play away this season. 

39+21 = 60 points projectile if both teams play their average.  The total is sitting at 52.  60-52 = 12 points leeway. 

Ok, so lets say that ATL will spank narleans in their own house.  12 (leeway) + atl averages at 21 = 33.  Narleans will then needs about 20 points for the over to cash.  The tick question is can Narleans get 3 TD in the MNF game?  Atl is also dome and that is turf playing field.  You have 2 teams who are dome and what I am smelling is a high shooting game here.  The stats and trends are showing an under game but that is public information and I'm fading the public on this one. 

NEW ORLEANS is 9-0 UNDER off 2 consecutive road wins since 1992.

Do remember that stats are not always accurate.  This stats here is since 1992.  Was Drew brees included in that stats? 

I'm playing the over 52 for 1U

================================================

Regarding sides, Narleans barely spanked ATL in their own house this season.  Well it was a contested game for narleans because ATL and in their own house and with Matt Ryan is a dangerous place to play.  Some may say, what about the revenge factor?  I say what about it?  Did Balt give pitts a revenge factor?  Did Pitts give Cinn a revenge factor?  Did 49ers give Seattle a revenge factor?  So what about ATL needs the win to get away from Narleans in the first round of the playoff?  As much as ATL wants it, they have to earn it.  Nothing is given for free in the NFL unless it is a needed win against a sub below par team.  Remember that what we want is not always what is reality.  We wanted Chicago to win to get that playoff hopes but what happened?  We wanted Jets the same kind of love but what happened?  Capping games by moving building blocks is a dangerous game to play.  I know because I lost my azz off doing thus.  NOT NO MORE. 

If ATL wants it, they have to earn it.  They have to go against a hot Narleans team who is 6-0 at home and 6-0 ATS while playing at home.  They  have to go against one of the hottest QB in the league, Drew Brees.  

If this game was in Hotlanta, I will be on Hotlanta but it is not.  ATL is 3-4 ATS when they are away.  They can go 4-4 after MNF but it will not be easy. 

My money is on Narleans -6.5 and hoping that Narleans will win by a Touchdown.  I already do not like the 6.5 number but anything more, I'll pass on this game since the last 3 times these two squads played, it was a nail biter by a field goal.  Home field advantage is already 3 points so I'm seeing this game as Narleans -3.5.  Trend for the lovelies. 

Play On - Favorites of -160 to -475 vs. the money line (NEW ORLEANS) after a win by 14 or more points against opponent after scoring 30 points or more last game
47-6 over the last 10 seasons.  ( 88.7% | 0.0 units )
2-1 this year.  ( 66.7% | 0.0 units )

Narleans -6.5   0.5U  <<-- for action only

Lets get this money Mr. Stupid and best of luck to us all. 


Time to count my cash.  MNF a clean sweep, homerun

Narleans to win game 0.5U  win
Narleans over 52  1U  win
Narleans 2h 0.5U  win
Narleans over 2h  0.5 U   win

So here is the thing.  The game is still going and plenty of time left.  Did I count my cash too early?   Do you believe in voodoo?  Not I.  LOL


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Posted: #291
 
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Posted: #292
By any chance this funky parlay combo card here hits? 


Dec 27 07:35 PM
Dec 27 10:35 PM

CFB
NBA
NBA
PARLAY (3 TEAMS)
[218] PURDUE -3-105
[501] ATLANTA -4½-110
[510] LA LAKERS -4½-110

24.50 / 145.91

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Posted: #293
Quote Originally Posted by nfl_brosuf:

NcaaF Tues

Purdue -3  2U
over 60 1U 

Louville +1.5  1U
under 44.5  0.5U 

also putting it all in a parlay for fun. 

Dec 27 04:30 PM
Dec 27 08:00 PM
Dec 27 08:00 PM

CFB
CFB
CFB
CFB
PARLAY (4 TEAMS)
[217] TOTAL o60-110
(WESTERN MICHIGA vrs PURDUE)
[218] PURDUE -3-105
[219] LOUISVILLE +1½-110
[220] TOTAL u44-110
(LOUISVILLE vrs NC STATE)

50 / 513.10





I got a feeling that purdue is way overdue.  I'm backing a 6-6 record team who is just horrible SU and ATS when playing away.   I am not going to buy it back.  Take it like a man ya know? 



Do you happen to know if Louville is playing at home?  If they are playing away then more power to louville.  Louville is a perfect 6-0 ATS when they are away.  As long as louville is not playing this bowl game in their own town, they will have a shot for 7-0. 

On the flip side, NC state is 1-4 record and 1-4 ATS while playing away.  

Uh oh... Time to put this stats into a 3 teamer for action. 

Dec 27 08:00 PM
Dec 27 08:00 PM

CFB
CFB
CFB
3 team teaser
[217] TOTAL o54½-110 (B+6)
(WESTERN MICHIGA vrs PURDUE)
[219] LOUISVILLE +7½-110 (B+6)
[220] TOTAL u50-110 (B+6)
(LOUISVILLE vrs NC STATE)

60 / 93




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Posted: #294
My last one and that's it.  I am starting to get trigger happy and start buying some stupid combinations.  As iff... 



Dec 27 08:00 PM

CFB
CFB
PARLAY (2 TEAMS)
[217] TOTAL o60½-110
(WESTERN MICHIGA vrs PURDUE)
[219] LOUISVILLE +1½-110

50 / 130

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Posted: #295
Quote Originally Posted by nfl_brosuf:

NcaaF Tues

Purdue -3  2U
over 60 1U 

Louville +1.5  1U
under 44.5  0.5U 

also putting it all in a parlay for fun. 

Dec 27 04:30 PM
Dec 27 08:00 PM
Dec 27 08:00 PM

CFB
CFB
CFB
CFB
PARLAY (4 TEAMS)
[217] TOTAL o60-110
(WESTERN MICHIGA vrs PURDUE)
[218] PURDUE -3-105
[219] LOUISVILLE +1½-110
[220] TOTAL u44-110
(LOUISVILLE vrs NC STATE)

50 / 513.10





Hey guy. I visited your thread some time back, you were really, really awful picking games.
Dude!  Are you still the same guy who was making those picks earlier on?  Damn NICE turnaround! My heartiest congratulations!
Awesome job.
I even saw your name way up there on the list in the bowl picking contest!


I like your 4 picks for today. I had WMich picked earlier and I looked the game over again yesterday and pretty much think I was wrong. I wish I had studied it a bit better before making a rash pick over a week ago in the contest. Now, I see W. Mich has been pretty bad vs the big 10 and while I think they will score points, I'm believing now they are out-matched against another Big 10 school in this bowl game. I think this match up can be looked at as a good team in a weak division, vs a mediocre team in a tough division and I think Pur comes out on top. W. Mich puts up a lot of points but their defense is pretty bad so Pur should put up their points too. The high total # and long layoff has me concerned though on the Over, but I agree with the Over pick anyway.
On the Lou game, I think it's two somewhat evenly matched teams but I too like the points with the team sporting the better defense. The layoffs tend to cause more inefficiency for the offenses (sloppy play, offensive penalties, loss of offensive rhythm, etc) and I think the two decent defenses should keep the scoring down.
I hope you hit all 4 on your parlay!

 
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Posted: #296
Quote Originally Posted by TomE:



Hey guy. I visited your thread some time back, you were really, really awful picking games.
Dude!  Are you still the same guy who was making those picks earlier on?  Damn NICE turnaround! My heartiest congratulations!
Awesome job.
I even saw your name way up there on the list in the bowl picking contest!


I like your 4 picks for today. I had WMich picked earlier and I looked the game over again yesterday and pretty much think I was wrong. I wish I had studied it a bit better before making a rash pick over a week ago in the contest. Now, I see W. Mich has been pretty bad vs the big 10 and while I think they will score points, I'm believing now they are out-matched against another Big 10 school in this bowl game. I think this match up can be looked at as a good team in a weak division, vs a mediocre team in a tough division and I think Pur comes out on top. W. Mich puts up a lot of points but their defense is pretty bad so Pur should put up their points too. The high total # and long layoff has me concerned though on the Over, but I agree with the Over pick anyway.
On the Lou game, I think it's two somewhat evenly matched teams but I too like the points with the team sporting the better defense. The layoffs tend to cause more inefficiency for the offenses (sloppy play, offensive penalties, loss of offensive rhythm, etc) and I think the two decent defenses should keep the scoring down.
I hope you hit all 4 on your parlay!



hey tom, thanks for the congrats.  It is a learning curve that I am going through.  The way I cap games was through a system and testing systems and as a noobie, I failed with 6 different systems.  Now, I am onto something.  It is not just a system plays alone but different ways of capping and taking everything you said to me into considerations. 

My bowl challenge game is just luck.  I'm sitting at #2 right now but I will drop off since I took louville and over 44 in that one while I played under with my own bankroll.   I picked all of the bowl games at the very beginning in that contest and on first pencil so I can not change my betting wagers. 

I read your NFL leans and capping skills like always because there is still too much for me to learn in the capping game.  Tome, you are one of the best around here, no doubt. 

See you out there in them threads. 


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Posted: #297
Quote Originally Posted by nfl_brosuf:

By any chance this funky parlay combo card here hits? 


Dec 27 07:35 PM
Dec 27 10:35 PM

CFB
NBA
NBA
PARLAY (3 TEAMS)
[218] PURDUE -3-105
[501] ATLANTA -4½-110
[510] LA LAKERS -4½-110

24.50 / 145.91



I still have action on kobe tonight with this only surviving parlay.   All my other parlays are toasted. 

Went 2-2 for the night in ncaaf and made money with straight bets. 

won purdue and won over
lost lou and lost under

up 1.5 Units on it.  

My NCAAF Bowl conviction
sides 3-3
totals 4-3

bank +2U

time to cap the toledo and air force game. 




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Posted: #298
Tues Ncaaf

Toledo -3  2U
under 71  1U

tx -3 1U
under 47.5  0.5U 

possible dropping a tx, under tx and toledo in a 3 teamer parlay.  Not ready to pull the trigger yet.  If kobe and friends win tonight, I will drop it.  If not then parlay is for suckers.   LOL



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Posted: #299
Quote Originally Posted by nfl_brosuf:

By any chance this funky parlay combo card here hits? 


Dec 27 07:35 PM
Dec 27 10:35 PM

CFB
NBA
NBA
PARLAY (3 TEAMS)
[218] PURDUE -3-105
[501] ATLANTA -4½-110
[510] LA LAKERS -4½-110

24.50 / 145.91



cashed my only living parlay for the day.  

Now would you think I would drop the whole winning on my next play?  Oh hell nah...  I'll do 15 cents, how about that? 

Dec 28 08:00 PM
Dec 28 08:00 PM

CFB
CFB
CFB
PARLAY (3 TEAMS)
[221] TOLEDO -3-115
[224] TEXAS -3½-110
[224] TOTAL u47½-110
(CALIFORNIA vrs TEXAS)

15.00 / 84.87

I just can not add toledo's under into this parlay.  My straight bet on the under in this game can cash but it all depending on AF and how much they are going to score.  AF is a big time over machine all year long, no matter where they play at.

The weird thing is this.  I'm ranked 4th after dropping 2 seed tonight in that one ncaa bowl contest.  In that game and capping it very early in the season, I had my initial lean on the over in the AF game but for the money, I am fading my own self.  Now isnt' that a trip? 

Win win situation for me.  Either win and up my bankroll or win to up my contest ranking.  I can not have them both.  I rather get the money though. 

Lets get that money Mr. Stupid. 




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Posted: #300
Quote Originally Posted by nfl_brosuf:

Tues Ncaaf

Toledo -3  2U  lose
under 71  1U  lose

tx -3 1U  win
under 47.5  0.5U  win

possible dropping a tx, under tx and toledo in a 3 teamer parlay.  Not ready to pull the trigger yet.  If kobe and friends win tonight, I will drop it.  If not then parlay is for suckers.   LOL





loss 1.5U for the day...  My strongest lean on toledo no cover by the hair of my chiny chin chin.  LOL


My NCAAF Bowl conviction
sides 4-4
totals 5-4

bank +0.5

time to cap nd/fl st game....

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