Buccaneers -3(-110) *2.00/1.82
This line will move. TB off a bye post Germany. The Browns are headed to Detroit for a neutral field game vs the Bills as a 7.5 dog. Hard to see them winning, maybe they cover?
Only the Browns players can get injured this week as TB is idle. Fwiw, the Browns are going into the Bills game with 3 starting o linemen who are hobbled. They are all probable but not 100%. These aren't just average o linemen, they are good. Poncic, Teller, and Conklin.
The return of Akiem Hicks at DT for the Bucs is a big deal. He's started in only 4 games this year, week 1,2,9, and 10. In those 4 games the Bucs have held opponents to 10.5 ppg and are 4-0. He himself hasn't put up eye popping stats. 9 tackles, and 2 qb hits while playing only 52% of the snaps. He has plugged up the middle well though, allowing the LB's to work behind him.
What has LB Devon White done since Hicks return? In the last 2 games, 23 tackles, two tackles for loss, three quarterback hits, a sack, and a forced fumble.
The Browns lean on Chubb and the run, so this will be tough for them in my estimation vs a fresh defense off of a bye.
The Browns on the defensive side can't stop the pass or run. So I think it's a pick your poison type of gameplan for the Bucs. Vs Miami the Browns could not generate any form of a pass rush. After that game, a reporter asked Tua "How on earth is your jersey so clean?".
The Bucs are the least sacked team in the nfl. They have built that line to protect Brady, and have had the highest pass % in the league up until last weeks game vs the Seahawks. In fact, vs the Seahawks it was the first time that their run % was over 50% in any game this year.
The Bucs may have found a hidden gem in Rachaad White last week when Fournette went down. Frankly, I wouldn't mind to see Fournette out again, as he's been terrible all year and getting long in the tooth.
The Bucs are 5-5(3-6-1 ats). They haven't played up to par this year. I'd attribute this mostly to game plan as they were passing 68% of the time prior to the Seahawks game. Don't get me wrong, they are a good passing team. Brady has been sacked only 14 times(o line with a 3.8% adjusted sack rate #1) and he has thrown only 2 interceptions.
But in today's nfl, you need balance with run and pass. I think they found the value of the run last week as the results showed vs a very good Seattle team. No coach in the nfl(including Bowles and Leftwich) could be blind to ignore that.
The Browns are vulnerable to the run as much as the pass. The Browns D line is 30th in adjusted run yards, and 16th in adjusted sack rate.
I think we see the Buccaneers best game of the year on both sides of the ball in week 12.
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