I decided to make a new thread about this game so I can post the writeup at the beginning.
The San Francisco 49ers will try one last time to save their season this weekend by beating the Washington Football Team in a home game far away from home. There are many interesting story lines to this game:
Both teams have identical records (5-7) and are in a desperate fight for a playoff spot.
Both teams played on Monday night and are playing each other for the second straight year.
Washington is coming off a big, emotional victory over the only undefeated team in the NFL, while SF is coming off a disappointing loss to an excellent Buffalo team against whom they were not ready to play. (More on this later)
The Niners are trying to make the best of disappointing season where injuries, attrition and Covid have thwarted all their ambitions and plans.
The Washington Football Team have embarked on a reclamation project that promises to transform the team and the franchise, for the better, both from without and within.
One team is led by two old-school coaches (Rivera and Del Rio) who promote a no nonsense smash mouth style of football and the other team is led by younger generation of coaches who, while respecting the tenets of football, give the old game a modern makeover.
Both teams have players and/or coaches who would love nothing better than to defeat their former team in this all important game. For Washington, this is Alex Smith’s chance to stick it to the team that drafted him and eventually discarded him for Colin Kaepernick. For the 49ers, Kyle Shanahan gets the opportunity to avenge his father’s firing once again by dashing his former employer’s playoff hopes. And let’s not forget Trent Williams and Jordan Reed, two guys who began their careers with the Redskins and whose relationship with the team eventually soured and became untenable.
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
I decided to make a new thread about this game so I can post the writeup at the beginning.
The San Francisco 49ers will try one last time to save their season this weekend by beating the Washington Football Team in a home game far away from home. There are many interesting story lines to this game:
Both teams have identical records (5-7) and are in a desperate fight for a playoff spot.
Both teams played on Monday night and are playing each other for the second straight year.
Washington is coming off a big, emotional victory over the only undefeated team in the NFL, while SF is coming off a disappointing loss to an excellent Buffalo team against whom they were not ready to play. (More on this later)
The Niners are trying to make the best of disappointing season where injuries, attrition and Covid have thwarted all their ambitions and plans.
The Washington Football Team have embarked on a reclamation project that promises to transform the team and the franchise, for the better, both from without and within.
One team is led by two old-school coaches (Rivera and Del Rio) who promote a no nonsense smash mouth style of football and the other team is led by younger generation of coaches who, while respecting the tenets of football, give the old game a modern makeover.
Both teams have players and/or coaches who would love nothing better than to defeat their former team in this all important game. For Washington, this is Alex Smith’s chance to stick it to the team that drafted him and eventually discarded him for Colin Kaepernick. For the 49ers, Kyle Shanahan gets the opportunity to avenge his father’s firing once again by dashing his former employer’s playoff hopes. And let’s not forget Trent Williams and Jordan Reed, two guys who began their careers with the Redskins and whose relationship with the team eventually soured and became untenable.
On the surface, it appears that Washington is on an upward trajectory, having won three straight, and that the Niners on a downward trajectory, having lost 4 out of the last 5. And yet, Vegas still has them as a 3.5 point favorite on a neutral field! Why? Looking more closely at Washington’s wins tell us a different story than the results. They beat a two win Bungles team only after their rookie of the year candidate, Joe Burrow, went down to an injury. Next they beat the hapless, 3 win Cowboys, who we saw tonight, a team that, at the moment, probably doesn’t belong in the NFL, on Thanksgiving. And finally they beat an undefeated Steelers team that is 1) not as good as their undefeated record suggests and 2) that they caught in the perfect spot; a sandwich game that came just 5 days after they beat their bitter division rivals, the Ravens, and 6 days before their matchup with another AFC powerhouse in the Bills. And this to say nothing of the roller coaster ride the Steelers had been through the past two weeks in battling Covid, the schedule makers, and the mental/emotional fatigue that came with the chaos. Meanwhile, the Niners lost the division leading Packers with almost half their roster on Covid IR. They lost to the division leading Seahawks, when the Seahawks were playing well and looking to avenge a loss from the previous year that had huge playoff implications. Next they lost to the
Saints, one of the top teams in the NFL, also looking to avenge an important, heartbreaking loss from the previous year. After their bye, the Niners rebounded nicely to beat the Rams in all important division matchup where the Rams were trying to get triple revenge. But even before that game started, the Niners knew or were told that they wouldn’t be able to play any more home games in Santa Clara County. This was a huge blow to the team, the players and their families. It was 24-48 hours of disbelief, shock and disappointment as the 49ers tried to figure out where they would be practicing and playing their games, and oh, btw, they still had to prepare for an all important Monday night prime time showdown against one of the top teams and quarterbacks in the NFL. Not an easy feat, by any means. But now that the Niners have had a chance to process all the changes and get comfortable in their surroundings, I think you will see a different team. To make a long story short, here are the reasons I like the Niners to win and cover the spread on Sunday:
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On the surface, it appears that Washington is on an upward trajectory, having won three straight, and that the Niners on a downward trajectory, having lost 4 out of the last 5. And yet, Vegas still has them as a 3.5 point favorite on a neutral field! Why? Looking more closely at Washington’s wins tell us a different story than the results. They beat a two win Bungles team only after their rookie of the year candidate, Joe Burrow, went down to an injury. Next they beat the hapless, 3 win Cowboys, who we saw tonight, a team that, at the moment, probably doesn’t belong in the NFL, on Thanksgiving. And finally they beat an undefeated Steelers team that is 1) not as good as their undefeated record suggests and 2) that they caught in the perfect spot; a sandwich game that came just 5 days after they beat their bitter division rivals, the Ravens, and 6 days before their matchup with another AFC powerhouse in the Bills. And this to say nothing of the roller coaster ride the Steelers had been through the past two weeks in battling Covid, the schedule makers, and the mental/emotional fatigue that came with the chaos. Meanwhile, the Niners lost the division leading Packers with almost half their roster on Covid IR. They lost to the division leading Seahawks, when the Seahawks were playing well and looking to avenge a loss from the previous year that had huge playoff implications. Next they lost to the
Saints, one of the top teams in the NFL, also looking to avenge an important, heartbreaking loss from the previous year. After their bye, the Niners rebounded nicely to beat the Rams in all important division matchup where the Rams were trying to get triple revenge. But even before that game started, the Niners knew or were told that they wouldn’t be able to play any more home games in Santa Clara County. This was a huge blow to the team, the players and their families. It was 24-48 hours of disbelief, shock and disappointment as the 49ers tried to figure out where they would be practicing and playing their games, and oh, btw, they still had to prepare for an all important Monday night prime time showdown against one of the top teams and quarterbacks in the NFL. Not an easy feat, by any means. But now that the Niners have had a chance to process all the changes and get comfortable in their surroundings, I think you will see a different team. To make a long story short, here are the reasons I like the Niners to win and cover the spread on Sunday:
Believe it or not, they are still in the playoff hunt. And the teams that are tied with them or ahead of them all have tougher schedules. If they can beat Washington and the Cowboys in Arizona, their third game is against Cardinals, in Arizona! That is a huge advantage for the Niners, and will almost be like a home game of sorts. John Lynch has been hinting that if the Niners can win the next two then we will likely see Jimmy G and Kittle in the last two weeks.
If they lose to Washington, not only are their playoff hopes lost, but now they are stuck in the desert for another two weeks, without family and friends, with nothing to look forward to. In other words, complete and total misery. Though it should be noted, players may invite their families to Arizona for the holidays.
The Niners have been excellent under Kyle Shanahan after spending time together on the road. I’ve written about this before, and we saw the results last year (against the Bungles in week 2 and later against the Saints) and this year against the Giants in week 3. Being on the road together really pays off that second week, when players bond and simply focus on football and the game plan, without family and other distractions.
As mentioned before, the chaos that ensued after the Niners found out they could not play in Santa Clara was a huge distraction that hampered their ability to prepare for the Bills.
This is a big letdown spot for a young Washington team that has yet to deal with this type of success. They have won 3 straight and beaten an undefeated Steelers team on the road. And now they have to get up emotionally to beat the lowly Niners, who just got their butt kicked, with their backup QB somewhere in the Arizona desert.
The Niners will not be playing the Bills and Allen, who can make almost every type of football throw, even on the run. They’ll be playing old Alex Smith, playing on one leg, dinking and dunking his way down the field.
Which brings me to my next point: Washington runs a very old-school, vanilla offense: two run plays and a pass, or one run, one dink, and one dunk. They don’t steamroll their opponents because they can’t. That plays right into the Niners hands and their ball control running game. Shanahan can run his game plan all day because Washington is not going to run away with the game. They are one of the worst first-half scoring teams. If the Bills are a Ferrari then Washington is an old, manual Ford truck.
The coaching matchups. Riverboat Ron and Del Rio are dinosaurs. Hence, they matched wits well with Tomlin, another dinosaur from the bygone days. All the young, innovative coaches have had a field day against Washington. Hell, even Patricia beat Washington. Rivers has beaten McFatty twice, Tomlin once, Pederson once, and the young Zac Taylor once but only because Burrows went down. This is a matchup that even Robert Saleh’s little brain should be able to handle.
The play: Niners -3
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Believe it or not, they are still in the playoff hunt. And the teams that are tied with them or ahead of them all have tougher schedules. If they can beat Washington and the Cowboys in Arizona, their third game is against Cardinals, in Arizona! That is a huge advantage for the Niners, and will almost be like a home game of sorts. John Lynch has been hinting that if the Niners can win the next two then we will likely see Jimmy G and Kittle in the last two weeks.
If they lose to Washington, not only are their playoff hopes lost, but now they are stuck in the desert for another two weeks, without family and friends, with nothing to look forward to. In other words, complete and total misery. Though it should be noted, players may invite their families to Arizona for the holidays.
The Niners have been excellent under Kyle Shanahan after spending time together on the road. I’ve written about this before, and we saw the results last year (against the Bungles in week 2 and later against the Saints) and this year against the Giants in week 3. Being on the road together really pays off that second week, when players bond and simply focus on football and the game plan, without family and other distractions.
As mentioned before, the chaos that ensued after the Niners found out they could not play in Santa Clara was a huge distraction that hampered their ability to prepare for the Bills.
This is a big letdown spot for a young Washington team that has yet to deal with this type of success. They have won 3 straight and beaten an undefeated Steelers team on the road. And now they have to get up emotionally to beat the lowly Niners, who just got their butt kicked, with their backup QB somewhere in the Arizona desert.
The Niners will not be playing the Bills and Allen, who can make almost every type of football throw, even on the run. They’ll be playing old Alex Smith, playing on one leg, dinking and dunking his way down the field.
Which brings me to my next point: Washington runs a very old-school, vanilla offense: two run plays and a pass, or one run, one dink, and one dunk. They don’t steamroll their opponents because they can’t. That plays right into the Niners hands and their ball control running game. Shanahan can run his game plan all day because Washington is not going to run away with the game. They are one of the worst first-half scoring teams. If the Bills are a Ferrari then Washington is an old, manual Ford truck.
The coaching matchups. Riverboat Ron and Del Rio are dinosaurs. Hence, they matched wits well with Tomlin, another dinosaur from the bygone days. All the young, innovative coaches have had a field day against Washington. Hell, even Patricia beat Washington. Rivers has beaten McFatty twice, Tomlin once, Pederson once, and the young Zac Taylor once but only because Burrows went down. This is a matchup that even Robert Saleh’s little brain should be able to handle.
Can you really be unbiased when the 9er's are your team?
Have I written a single writeup this year (not to mention 3 pages worth) endorsing the Niners? No. Did I have multiple writeups about the Niners last year? Was my record endorsing the Niners stellar? Yes and yes. I think I was something like 6-2. I hope that answers your question.
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Quote Originally Posted by jpot34:
Can you really be unbiased when the 9er's are your team?
Have I written a single writeup this year (not to mention 3 pages worth) endorsing the Niners? No. Did I have multiple writeups about the Niners last year? Was my record endorsing the Niners stellar? Yes and yes. I think I was something like 6-2. I hope that answers your question.
Nice writeup BB... Also worth noting Antonio Gibson most likely has turf toe and won't play, but hasn't been ruled out yet. It was evident on monday WFT can't run the ball with their backups. I would anticipate the line to move higher before game time. Do you agree?
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Nice writeup BB... Also worth noting Antonio Gibson most likely has turf toe and won't play, but hasn't been ruled out yet. It was evident on monday WFT can't run the ball with their backups. I would anticipate the line to move higher before game time. Do you agree?
Great write-up, appreciate the thought and effort that went into it.
Not convinced yet on the winner of this game yet but I'm thinking this might be a really good 1st half play on the 49'ers -2 1/2 for many of the reasons you've listed.
Cheers
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Great write-up, appreciate the thought and effort that went into it.
Not convinced yet on the winner of this game yet but I'm thinking this might be a really good 1st half play on the 49'ers -2 1/2 for many of the reasons you've listed.
Great write-up, appreciate the thought and effort that went into it. Not convinced yet on the winner of this game yet but I'm thinking this might be a really good 1st half play on the 49'ers -2 1/2 for many of the reasons you've listed. Cheers
Agree
Thank you America
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Quote Originally Posted by tboon:
Great write-up, appreciate the thought and effort that went into it. Not convinced yet on the winner of this game yet but I'm thinking this might be a really good 1st half play on the 49'ers -2 1/2 for many of the reasons you've listed. Cheers
Nice writeup BB... Also worth noting Antonio Gibson most likely has turf toe and won't play, but hasn't been ruled out yet. It was evident on monday WFT can't run the ball with their backups. I would anticipate the line to move higher before game time. Do you agree?
This is a good point. Not having Gibson obviously helps the Niners but hurts the line move. In truth, I have only locked in a part of my wager at -3 (I think it’s -120 at my book) because Glendale Arizona has high Covid rates and I’m concerned about the team staying safe until game day. Depending on how things shake out, with Gibson, the line can move for us or against us. Right now the public seems split on who they like. Maybe a couple of more news cycles on the feel good story of Smith, Rivera and Washington will help our cause. Or maybe it won’t. Btw, if you ml parlay the Seahawks with the Niners at /3 -120 you get $115 for back on a 110$ wager. Seems like a solid bet .
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Quote Originally Posted by BigDD:
Nice writeup BB... Also worth noting Antonio Gibson most likely has turf toe and won't play, but hasn't been ruled out yet. It was evident on monday WFT can't run the ball with their backups. I would anticipate the line to move higher before game time. Do you agree?
This is a good point. Not having Gibson obviously helps the Niners but hurts the line move. In truth, I have only locked in a part of my wager at -3 (I think it’s -120 at my book) because Glendale Arizona has high Covid rates and I’m concerned about the team staying safe until game day. Depending on how things shake out, with Gibson, the line can move for us or against us. Right now the public seems split on who they like. Maybe a couple of more news cycles on the feel good story of Smith, Rivera and Washington will help our cause. Or maybe it won’t. Btw, if you ml parlay the Seahawks with the Niners at /3 -120 you get $115 for back on a 110$ wager. Seems like a solid bet .
Great write-up, appreciate the thought and effort that went into it. Not convinced yet on the winner of this game yet but I'm thinking this might be a really good 1st half play on the 49'ers -2 1/2 for many of the reasons you've listed. Cheers
That makes sense as well. But not being a halftime bettor, it never entered my mind.
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Quote Originally Posted by tboon:
Great write-up, appreciate the thought and effort that went into it. Not convinced yet on the winner of this game yet but I'm thinking this might be a really good 1st half play on the 49'ers -2 1/2 for many of the reasons you've listed. Cheers
That makes sense as well. But not being a halftime bettor, it never entered my mind.
Hey, buddy. Glad to see you. If I had 10 it might be ten, but it will more likely be 5. I also would not go that big because Mullins, despite his historic output in terms of numbers, is still a backup. And though he should play much better now that he will not be under the big lights, he is still capable of screwing this bet with a turnover or two. So I’m only wagering what I can stand to lose without throwing up, if that makes sense.
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Quote Originally Posted by gooch72:
@begginerboy 10 unit play for you BB?
Hey, buddy. Glad to see you. If I had 10 it might be ten, but it will more likely be 5. I also would not go that big because Mullins, despite his historic output in terms of numbers, is still a backup. And though he should play much better now that he will not be under the big lights, he is still capable of screwing this bet with a turnover or two. So I’m only wagering what I can stand to lose without throwing up, if that makes sense.
SF the wilderness year...I had them on Monday night and they peed the bed to my amazement.
They let those undersized punks from Buffalo push them around. Disgusting to watch and I no longer trust the 49ers...what a dog and pony show they are this year. Of course I never fully bought into them last year which saved me in the Superbowl.
I wonder why the networks order their cameras to pan Robert Saleh on the sideline? Who does he know to have star power like that?
BOL BB and nice writeup...but no longer can trust those jibronies from the 'left coast'.
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SF the wilderness year...I had them on Monday night and they peed the bed to my amazement.
They let those undersized punks from Buffalo push them around. Disgusting to watch and I no longer trust the 49ers...what a dog and pony show they are this year. Of course I never fully bought into them last year which saved me in the Superbowl.
I wonder why the networks order their cameras to pan Robert Saleh on the sideline? Who does he know to have star power like that?
BOL BB and nice writeup...but no longer can trust those jibronies from the 'left coast'.
SF the wilderness year...I had them on Monday night and they peed the bed to my amazement. They let those undersized punks from Buffalo push them around. Disgusting to watch and I no longer trust the 49ers...what a dog and pony show they are this year. Of course I never fully bought into them last year which saved me in the Superbowl. I wonder why the networks order their cameras to pan Robert Saleh on the sideline? Who does he know to have star power like that? BOL BB and nice writeup...but no longer can trust those jibronies from the 'left coast'.
Certainly understand the concern, Lancer. Especially after Monday night. Maybe I should have named the thread “a play only Leopold Ritter von Sacher-Masoch would love”:) You gotta trust your capping instincts and realize that you may have been off by a game in backing the Niners. They were s distracted team last week. The other thing you have to consider is the opponent. The current iteration of Niners don’t have the margin for error they used to against good teams, who can steamroll them if they make a couple of mistakes (see Packers, Saints, Seahawks) but Washington gives you plenty of room for error/mistakes. Niners might even be able to survive a turnover or two, which they couldn’t against better teams.
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Quote Originally Posted by lancer89074:
SF the wilderness year...I had them on Monday night and they peed the bed to my amazement. They let those undersized punks from Buffalo push them around. Disgusting to watch and I no longer trust the 49ers...what a dog and pony show they are this year. Of course I never fully bought into them last year which saved me in the Superbowl. I wonder why the networks order their cameras to pan Robert Saleh on the sideline? Who does he know to have star power like that? BOL BB and nice writeup...but no longer can trust those jibronies from the 'left coast'.
Certainly understand the concern, Lancer. Especially after Monday night. Maybe I should have named the thread “a play only Leopold Ritter von Sacher-Masoch would love”:) You gotta trust your capping instincts and realize that you may have been off by a game in backing the Niners. They were s distracted team last week. The other thing you have to consider is the opponent. The current iteration of Niners don’t have the margin for error they used to against good teams, who can steamroll them if they make a couple of mistakes (see Packers, Saints, Seahawks) but Washington gives you plenty of room for error/mistakes. Niners might even be able to survive a turnover or two, which they couldn’t against better teams.
Well written. Well done. Your analysis of the Redskins past 3 games and the overvaluing that may live in people´s minds is excellent. Especially regarding this past win against a Steelers team anhilated by COVID and with 4 days of preparation (after a week without training)
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Well written. Well done. Your analysis of the Redskins past 3 games and the overvaluing that may live in people´s minds is excellent. Especially regarding this past win against a Steelers team anhilated by COVID and with 4 days of preparation (after a week without training)
In fact, I have not bet on the Niners all year. Last year I bet them 10 times and only missed on Seahawks game in SF and the SB, a bet I didn’t really love but pulled the trigger on because the Niners had won me so much money.
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Quote Originally Posted by darren3472:
@begginerboy Did you have 49ers Mon night?
In fact, I have not bet on the Niners all year. Last year I bet them 10 times and only missed on Seahawks game in SF and the SB, a bet I didn’t really love but pulled the trigger on because the Niners had won me so much money.
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