And now you pound the Niners: Washington vs Niners (full writeup)

@begginerboy

  good luck sir. i am going to lock in some on SF and the ML Parlay right now.

There is another reason why San Francisco will win and cover this time.  Referees tend to make up for their bad calls that cost a team a win by giving them a break in their following game.  If a team was a beneficiary of a bad call against the opposing team in one game and won it undeservingly, Refs tend to punish them in their following game with a bad call.  There is a short video going around that shows holding by DL of Bills on their 4th and 1 play close to the end zone of 49ers with a few minutes left in the first half.  The hold allowed Bills' running back to eke out just one yard to get a first down.  Bills scored a TD to go up 14-7 as a result of the non-call.  Perhaps Bills could have gotten a first down even after a 10 yard penalty, but they were more likely to get a FG and go up by one 3 points.  At the end of the first half of Steelers game, Alex Smith carried the ball out of bounds after he was sacked, which forced Refs to stop the clock to get another ball.  The mistake by the Refs gave a few extra seconds of time and a chance to set up for their successful FG to get closer to Steelers.  So in this weekend's game Refs are likely to favor 49ers over Washington.

I don’t discount it but I did not cap it. As someone pointed out, the Steelers screwed the Ravens last week at the end of the half by refusing to get off the ball carrier and get lined up at the end of the second period when Ravens were threatening to score. Hence the Ravens came away with zero points. The following week, the same thing happens except this time it’s Washington causing a delay of game they don’t get called for (which you point out) and they are the ones who benefit at the Steelers expense. 

tough call either way but as long as Mullins doesnt turn it over your Niners have a chance in this one, havent been impressed with Washington either. i probably will sit this one out, but hope you hit it BB

@begginerboy

 Any thoughts on Niners to win the Super Bowl? My book has 100-1, could be great hedging opportunities if they get in and start getting healthy 

Should be 200-1:) They might make the dance if they run the table, and they certainly have the experience to upset a team or two (especially if they play the NFC least), which is all you would need for a hedging opportunity, but I’m not convinced they have a legit shot. The team doesn’t have the look or feel of a team primed to make deep run. A lot would have to go right for them to get there. 

well written and great job BB!!! Keep up the great work and go niners!!!

Gotta go with the Hot team playing for the Division...49ers are living off last year's success..team has no identity....

@davemsh

That’s one way to look at it. The other is they’ve had one hell of a schedule (playing multiple playoff bound teams) and an unprecedented number of injuries. Being healthier will help them find their identity, which is a running team. I think the Rams game is more indicative of where they are at and the Monday night game was a bad spot, for reasons mentioned, against the wrong kind of team.

Well written write up but you are not factoring in a key point.   Karma for smith.  This is the team that screwed him over royally.  All that had to transpire for smith to be playing at this point and being in contention for the division is mind blowing.  Everything that went against the steelers going into that game, short week, injuries definitely helped wash. On thanksgiving key pieces of cowboys oline got hurt, helping wash.   They will get more help here, refs will help if needed.  Nfl has a feel good storyline playing out in real time and you want bet against that?  And on the team with the text book sb hangover that is playing a ton of backups and is stuck in az instead of home.   I was on wash ml vs steelers at +400 when it open and I am on wash ml here.  Maybe I am still sore that 49ers laid an egg vs bills, all that has went wrong for sf tells me they are done this year.   All the momentum is with wash at this point.  Bol.

That’s a good writeup for the Washington side. Certainly one possible outcome. But then you have to ask yourself, just as you probably did with that Steelers line sitting -6–6.5 for an undefeated team at home, why are the Niners, who just put up a stinker, and have no mojo or momentum at the moment, lost as they are in the Arizona desert, favored by 3-3.5 on a neutral field?

Washington football team are exactly what the WWF/NFL thrives on = Human Interest,  soap opera...

49ers are old hat and I cant see why the NFL would want them back in the playoffs ..

Win or lose , it has to be DC or nothing 

Nice write up BB I thought of the Shanahan revenge angle but thanks for pointing out Jordon Reed and Trent Williams

The one negative everyone brings up is Nick Mullins, but he is getting a lot of playing time and is actually looking better.

Agree with your pick Good luck

It’s the age old question of betting on or fading the narrative. Sports is all about feel-good stories, I’ll give you that, but for every narrative that comes to fruition hundreds more don’t. Besides, a loss by Washington does not end their season because they play in the NFC east. But a loss by the Niners does end their season. The Niners are also, smartly, dangling a fruit in front of the league: if they can win the next two, Kittle and Jimmy G will be back. No two players in the league have more fans who have a crush on them then these two. Jimmy G for the ladies and Kittle for those men who have a man-crush on him.

I expect big things from those two. A bet on a Jordan Reed prop might not be a bad idea.

River Boat Ronnie 

Great stuff BB.

If E.Moslely is back in the lineup I will be on SF.  Sherman is unplayable & shouldn’t even be on the field. I’m sick of that dude and his constant PR stunts, lobbying for jobs. Sherman can’t defend a lick in the open field and Saleh is constantly trying to hide him in zone instead of benching him. He routinely holds/grabs draws flags. Niners can’t let McLuarin? The Skins wideout shred them in the slot the way Beasley did. My god, Saleh allowed Beasley to look like Jerry Rice. It was embarrassing.

offensively the Niner should be able to move the chains with the run game and Deebo/Aiyuk on the outside. Too much talent there.

My #1 concern is the Niner team psyche. Did they emotionally throw in the towel on the season after getting smashed by the Bills? Do they still believe? If the effort is where it should be, they’ll win and cover.

@begginerboy

You're delusional bb! Too bad Jimmy Guido & Valley Girl Kittle weren't playing on MNF because it would of been the same outcome the Bills would of hammered them once again!! 

disagree. Kittle’s loss cannot be understated enough. He’s what makes that run game so potent.

One thing is certain, the 49ers are not living like virginal monks in their hotel compound. I wonder how much beer, pizza, and hookers are being smuggled into their rooms at night? I wouldn't put anything past these guys...and yes, I am serious. Young alpha guys with big money away from their shrewish wives and ugly children are up for anything. 

They peed down their legs against Buffalo, what a shameless performance...it might have been their swan song for this season. Their lack of physicality doesn't bode well for this game with the Skins IMO, but I have been colder than a well digger's a$$ so BB's take on this one might be golden. 

These guys don’t understand the dynamics of a team. The guy is not only one of the best football players in the world but he is the heart and soul of the team. 

@lancer89074

 Look who's talking.....lancer the Steelers Pom Pom Cheerleader! 

last year was the 49ers year to win it all....U had Kittle and Defo on rookie contracts...everything lined up for them as long .Jimmy G did not screw it up...Well we all now what happened......No the Bosa is Hurt and is damaged goods....Kittle is all banged up from taking way too much hits....No QB....