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Anyone else starting to have second thoughts on their Broncos bet?

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Posted: #26
Bpickin, I've also considered this a lil, both defenses are fast and will come at the QB, which QB do u think will be able to take a big hit. Manning might not even make it through the whole game if he takes some shots. Watching both QB'S in these playoffs I've seen manning miss open targets more than Cam has also. I think I'll wait, however I'm thinking the total will go over because if Panthers win it will either be by a blowout and them at least scoring 35 points and Broncos will make up the difference.....or if panthers lose its because Denver put up a lot more points than expected and even with that I can't see panthers not putting enough points up themselves to cover the over
 
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Posted: #27
Denver wins 21-17
 
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Posted: #28
I've been watching Denver Football for 50 years. They have never had a team like this. These men play with heart and character. They play for each other. It is family. It's the same mojo the SF Giants had in winning the World Series against the Detroit Tigers. Nobody believed in them except themselves. Just try and beat that. Beat this defense that gave the best performance against New England that I have ever witnessed them performing. If there is any merit to the phrase "The best offense is a great defense" then think of the AFC Championship game as a tune-up for the Super Bowl. So, the Broncos are an underdog in this game. That's right where they want to be. It's like Rodney Dangerfield used to say... "I don't get no respect!" Come the 7th of February....respect will have been earned.
 
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Posted: #29
Quote Originally Posted by Buzz44:

Bpickin, I've also considered this a lil, both defenses are fast and will come at the QB, which QB do u think will be able to take a big hit. Manning might not even make it through the whole game if he takes some shots. Watching both QB'S in these playoffs I've seen manning miss open targets more than Cam has also. I think I'll wait, however I'm thinking the total will go over because if Panthers win it will either be by a blowout and them at least scoring 35 points and Broncos will make up the difference.....or if panthers lose its because Denver put up a lot more points than expected and even with that I can't see panthers not putting enough points up themselves to cover the over

I would be extremely shocked if CAR offense put up 5 TDs straight up on this defense.  They'll need a key TO deep in Bronco territory or a DEF/ST TD.  
 
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Posted: #30
this is not a blowout game so the +4 ill take
 
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Posted: #31
Quote Originally Posted by Mrfixers:

OK heres who i'm taking and rae i solidify my pick this eraly ALL IN ON Panthers

make no mistake about it no matter that panthers scored over 40 in final game iut dosent translate into superbowl loss because of the bye week

ONLY maters from playoff game to playoff game.

So far i vae $500 cash to use hoping to get double that amount dwon with huge local who handles 20 K wagers or even 100K wagers in championship games

IF Not i can credit to whole $10,000 he knows i can cover the xtra thou or more phuck he's one of my customers LOL

Redid his whole guest house gutted it and finsihed top to bottom

Gave discount price of $2000

Because he is a freind also.

KIinda weird he never got hoisted by local cops or feds handling such a large book 2 to 300 clients he has

HE fears my calls he knows rarely lose so i keep in season wagers $1000 or less

BUT he accepts all wagers no matter how much you have BUT cash up front on 90% of players he has. HE dosent want to run around trying to collect from stiffs.

SO $10 K coming in feb 7th



Cool story bro
 
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Posted: #32
"
Peyton retiring angle seems like it would be huge... I just don't know "

Alas The Big Poo is here to let you know....he know. PEYTON MANNING IS WEARING A WHITE HONKYAZ COWBOY HAT ,RIDING HIS BRONCOS INTO THE SUNSET AND THE HALL OF FAME/.that is all the greatatious allseeing POO knows. good night son.
bigFnPOO
 
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Posted: #33
Quote Originally Posted by proguy747:

everywhere i go public says carolina going to destroy denver.


That makes me feel good about denver. 
Everyone talks about carolina having a great defense.

If you play the afc south and nfc south boy any team looks good.

Stats dont tell the quality of opponent.  

I have not bet yet but letting the public pound carolina so i get great value on the # defense.   



You are going to mock the offenses of the AFC and NFC South, when Denver got to play the tough Raiders, Chiefs and Chargers twice?

Ill take the offenses of Atl, Tampa and New Orleans all day over those 3 
 
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Posted: #34
Quote Originally Posted by bpickin:

normally I would agree with the playoff game to playoff game, but there is a true stat in the case of conference game to SUPERBOWL even with the extra week...


What stat is that, do you have it ?
 
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Posted: #35
Quote Originally Posted by lancer89074:

Strength of schedule really favors Denver as they had the 10th toughest and Carolina's was a weak 27th. Does SOS account for anything? 

Panthers beat teams with SOS according to FO of --- +2.4% and +1.3%.....ave 1.85%

Denver beat teams with SOS --- +4.9% and (-4.1%).....ave .4%

Panthers played the tougher schedule in playoffs and won far more impressive.

SOS according to Football-Reference

Panthers --- +2.2 and +1.3 ...ave 1.75
Denver --- +2.2 and (-2.4) ... ave (-.1)

Again Panthers played the far tougher schedule in playoffs and won far more impressive then Denver VS much weaker schedule.
 
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Posted: #36
After team scores 40+ in playoffs they are 5-23 ats next game. Includes game before SUPERBOWL even tho they get extra week...

Last year pats were one of the 5 which makes me think/hope it won't go back to back...
 
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Posted: #37
Bpickin, I love your approach and you have helped me have a great last 4 weeks, thank you.  All of you are thinking too much. The play here is quiet simple. History says a thousand times over that defense wins championships in EVERY sport. The ONLY 2 options here are Denver or a no play. With Denvers defense combined with the Manning storyline, to take Carolina really puts you at a disadvantage on your chance of winning.
 
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Posted: #38
Quote Originally Posted by bpickin:

After team scores 40+ in playoffs they are 5-23 ats next game. Includes game before SUPERBOWL even tho they get extra week...

Last year pats were one of the 5 which makes me think/hope it won't go back to back...

OK, thanks, do you know just the SB result ?
 
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Posted: #39
Quote Originally Posted by theclaw:


OK, thanks, do you know just the SB result ?

No but Giants lost to Ravens after Puting up 40+ and pats won last year after Puting up 40+. Those are the only I know off hand for week before Super Bowl...
 
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Posted: #40
Quote Originally Posted by SUPEREAGLE43:

Bpickin, I love your approach and you have helped me have a great last 4 weeks, thank you.  All of you are thinking too much. The play here is quiet simple. History says a thousand times over that defense wins championships in EVERY sport. The ONLY 2 options here are Denver or a no play. With Denvers defense combined with the Manning storyline, to take Carolina really puts you at a disadvantage on your chance of winning.

Thanks bro. I have been driving myself nuts. My gut says Broncos since playoffs started and my money is all ready on them. I need to just let it go. Most of the time when I go against my gut I lose... 
 
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Posted: #41
Quote Originally Posted by theclaw:


Panthers beat teams with SOS according to FO of --- +2.4% and +1.3%.....ave 1.85%

Denver beat teams with SOS --- +4.9% and (-4.1%).....ave .4%

Panthers played the tougher schedule in playoffs and won far more impressive.

SOS according to Football-Reference

Panthers --- +2.2 and +1.3 ...ave 1.75
Denver --- +2.2 and (-2.4) ... ave (-.1)

Again Panthers played the far tougher schedule in playoffs and won far more impressive then Denver VS much weaker schedule.


If we look at DVOA rankings and SRS rankings........................

Panthers two playoff opps ranked 1st and 3rd in season long DVOA and 1st and 7th in weighted DVOA

AVE of 2 and 4

Denver played season long teams ranked 6th and 7th and weighted of 9th and 4th

AVE of 6.5 and 6.5

Once again Panthers played the tougher teams who happen to have played far tougher schedules then Denver and they won far more imprssesive then Denver.
 
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Posted: #42
Guys it is Car. vs Den. with 2 weeks prep by the coaching staff.Throw out all the stats and look at how these 2 teams match up against each other.What are their weaknesses ,what are their strenghts.One thing I found so far,Den. as good as their dee is their 2 losses to Indy and KC were against qb's that could run the ball all their other opponents qb's are basically pocket passers.This you would think simplifies the game plan for their dee.Both KC and Indy ran the ball 40x.
 
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Posted: #43
Every time I second guess myself I am wrong.. If the consensus of Carolina stays over 65 in 2 of 3 sources I am fading Carolina..  obviously not the main reason I am on that side but historically

Last year Pats were like 55%.. can't really fade that 

Denver was a staggering 70%.. and i fade that all day

San Francisco was in the mid 60s almost like Carolina with the exact same spread.. this bet was based on Ray Lewis and not much of a fade

Don't get so caught up on how Carolina destroyed those teams

18-0 Brady destroyed everyone that season
2013 Manning destroyed the record books



 
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Posted: #44
I'm getting an erie feeling the other way.
Carolina wins and Denver covers the spread.
both sides get something but money is what I want
ref Alabama vs Clemson just a gut check here but the half point means no push
 
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Posted: #45
Quote Originally Posted by bpickin:


No but Giants lost to Ravens after Puting up 40+ and pats won last year after Puting up 40+. Those are the only I know off hand for week before Super Bowl...


Something to consider...that 40+ stat is a sign of the era, but is the era over ?

For 3 straight seasons we have had both no. 1 seeds make the SB, that is unheard of in today's era but is consistent with how things went back in the 80's and 90's and back then SB winning teams dominated every post season game many, many times.

And this Panther team is built more like those 80 and 90 teams with a stronger run game and defense , more physical type team, more more like Seattle again who fit those teams .

86 Giants won 49-3, 17-0 , 39-20
89 9ers won 42.-13, 30-3 , 55-10, 
91 Skins won by 10 then 41-10 then 37 -24 or some such things
83 Raiders 38-10, 30-13, 38-9
85 Bears , 24-0 , 21-0 , 46-10, 
84 9ers won by 12 then 23-0 and won big in SB.
92 Dallas won 34-10, won by 10, 55 -17.
96 Packers won all 3 games by double digits
94 9ers won by 29, then 10 then 26


Food for thought.....................................
 
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Posted: #46
Carolina will have to run the ball 40+ to win. In a game that was in hand Cam threw high the 4 or 5 times he felt pressure against Arizona. One resulting in a pick that opened the door for Arizona to stay in the game. As good as he is he will make bad plays under pressure just like any human on earth would. 
 
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Posted: #47
While it's true that TO ratio plays a part, and that since 2012 42 of 47 SBs the higher TO ratio won, it's not set in stone. If I'm not mistaken, it was the Raiders with a -13 TO ratio who won the SB at one time. As of now, it's 43 of 49 SB winners who had highest TO ratio. Carolina should easily stomp Denver. Notice I said should because anything can happen. I don't see Carolina winning in route on this. My first thoughts during WC rd was Carolina would win. Now? Denver has a shot and I'm hoping Gumby loses it making Car a 2x SB loser...
 
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Posted: #48
43/49 SB winners had a TO ratio that superseded their opponent. However the raiders won it with a -13 TO ratio so anything can happen. My initial lean was Car to the bank. Now? I'm leaning the other way. Yes, everything points to Carolina as the winner. But if bets are lopsided and Car takes the bulk of the money? Well we know the outcome...
 
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Posted: #49
Quote Originally Posted by LETGOPACK1234:




You are going to mock the offenses of the AFC and NFC South, when Denver got to play the tough Raiders, Chiefs and Chargers twice?

Ill take the offenses of Atl, Tampa and New Orleans all day over those 3 

Dont forget the steelers patriots bengals.  
AFC south lol  talk about free tunrovers bortles mariotta or his backup. houston and their revolving quaterbacks.
Winston and his turnovers..

Carolina faced three good good scoring teams and one mediocre.  opponents scored  23 29 38 and 35.  

Broncos gave up 27 and 34 points.  everything else was 24 or much lower.  Broncos played some good offensive teams.  They also played more playoff teams.

This years Carolina team reminds me of the Cowboys last year.  They are a very good team and have a real shot.  The panthers looked like garbage against seattle in the second half when the hawks regrouped and had the correct cleats on.  Carolina is in for a suprise because this denver defense is so much better then the seahawks.
This game should be competitive and with squares like yourself pounding the panthers it might give me enough value to take denver.   I have already placed a wager on the tru value in this game.  
 
 
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Posted: #50
Quote Originally Posted by theclaw:


Panthers beat teams with SOS according to FO of --- +2.4% and +1.3%.....ave 1.85%

Denver beat teams with SOS --- +4.9% and (-4.1%).....ave .4%

Panthers played the tougher schedule in playoffs and won far more impressive.

SOS according to Football-Reference

Panthers --- +2.2 and +1.3 ...ave 1.75
Denver --- +2.2 and (-2.4) ... ave (-.1)

Again Panthers played the far tougher schedule in playoffs and won far more impressive then Denver VS much weaker schedule.

how many rings did the panthers face in the playoffs?  1

denver faced 6.


Seahawks were caught off guard and had the wrong cleats. second half was a better indication of the teams.  

AZ was a joke for the last month and are near not enough physically.   AZ should have lost to a pathetic packers team.

AZ was so overrated and played september style football.  It started to get cold and they started crack at the seems.


Carolina plays tough physical football and i think this will be a very close game. 
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