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Ask yourself is this Super Bowl going to be a Black Swan event?

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Nycgags

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Posted: Jan. 24, 2017 - 5:22 AM ET #1

I had done a decent amount of analysis in this thread:

https://www.covers.com/postingforum/POST01/showmessage.aspx?spt=21&sub=102383580&page=1#reply

To sum it up however:

Atlanta has allowed 30 or more points scored to their opponent 6 times in the regular season, with 3 more games they allowed at least 28 points scored.
Patriots are easily in the top half of the league to be facing them in the Super Bowl meaning they should have no problem putting up 30 points against Atlanta.
Only 2 times in Super Bowl history has a team scored 30 points and lost. ~4% chance

So do we expect this game to be a Black Swan event that bucks the odds where Patriots score 30 points and lose. An argument could be made that Atlanta has the offense to do it. The question is, can the Patriots, who led the league with fewest points scored against, prevent Atlanta from scoring 27 or more points (keeping the 3 point spread in mind)?

FWIW Falcons have scored 28 or fewer points 5 times this past season. Some will say they will "step up" for this game with it being the Super Bowl. But who's to say New England's defense won't equally "step up". Again Patriots #1 in points allowed, good chance Falcons are held to 28 or fewer points against Patriots and no need to call out the Black Swan.

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Nycgags

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Posted: Jan. 24, 2017 - 5:26 AM ET #2

-3 point spread seems to be right on the money. If you think Atlanta will play above the ability they have shown this season and Patriots will fall short then bet Atlanta.

If you think Patriots have been here before w/ Belichick and no way in hell do they play below their potential then bet Patriots.

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Nycgags

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Posted: Jan. 24, 2017 - 5:30 AM ET #3

This may be over thinking it, but if we think there is a high degree of certainty that Patriots can put up 30 points.

Then make bet 1 (larger of the two) = Patriots -3

Make bet 2 a hedge (much smaller) of Falcons ML + Over 59

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rod_steel

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Posted: Jan. 24, 2017 - 5:40 AM ET #4

Why not take Pats TT over then

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Nycgags

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Posted: Jan. 24, 2017 - 7:42 AM ET #5

Quote Originally Posted by rod_steel:

Why not take Pats TT over then

Sounds like a good bet to me!

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lancer89074

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Posted: Jan. 24, 2017 - 9:35 PM ET #6

Nycgags, you were completely correct on your call in the game and congrats to you...

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Nycgags

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Posted: Jan. 24, 2017 - 9:41 PM ET #7

Quote Originally Posted by lancer89074:

Nycgags, you were completely correct on your call in the game and congrats to you...

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Sportsfixx

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Posted: Jan. 24, 2017 - 11:00 PM ET #8

Like the thoughts agreed

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Nycgags

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Posted: Jan. 25, 2017 - 8:01 AM ET #9

Atlanta and New England Super Bowl recent history:

'86 46-10* NEP

'99 34-19* ATL

'97 35-21* NEP

-------------- Brady + Belichick years

'02 20*-17 NEP

'04 32*-29 NEP

'05 24*-21 NEP

'08 17-14* NEP

'12 21-17* NEP

'15 28*-24 NEP

Past 6 Super Bowls, B+B have given up an average of 21.5 points per game

If it is a near lock the Patriots can score 30 points, given the above data there's a good shot (above average) that the Patriots can hold Atlanta to 27 or under. Only once in the past 6 Brady + Belichick SB's have they allowed more than 27 points.

Defense wins Championships and you are fooling yourself if Atlanta's defense stands up to New England's.

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Nycgags

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Posted: Jan. 25, 2017 - 8:05 AM ET #10

should read:

" you are fooling yourself if you think..."

The one game where NEP allowed more than 27 points is when they won 32-29 against Carolina in '04.

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thawv

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Posted: Jan. 25, 2017 - 8:34 AM ET #11

Quote Originally Posted by Nycgags:

should read:

" you are fooling yourself if you think..."

The one game where NEP allowed more than 27 points is when they won 32-29 against Carolina in '04.

What does anything that happened in 2004 have to do with this game? Or any of the other SB games that you mentioned?

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Nycgags

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Posted: Jan. 25, 2017 - 9:32 AM ET #12

Quote Originally Posted by thawv:

What does anything that happened in 2004 have to do with this game? Or any of the other SB games that you mentioned?

Oh grasshopper, are you new?

Same head coach, same quarterback. Do you expect them to suddenly forget how to coach and play football? Do you think Atlanta is some magical team that defies all of history and will rewrite the history books because they are special snowflakes just like you?

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Contrarian21

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Posted: Jan. 25, 2017 - 9:44 AM ET #13

Quote Originally Posted by Nycgags:

Oh grasshopper, are you new?

Same head coach, same quarterback. Do you expect them to suddenly forget how to coach and play football? Do you think Atlanta is some magical team that defies all of history and will rewrite the history books because they are special snowflakes just like you?

you're a complete moron if you think any past team other than these current players mean anything relating to the outcome. Keep weighing your stats though.

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rm990

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Posted: Jan. 25, 2017 - 10:05 AM ET #14

Quote Originally Posted by Nycgags:

Oh grasshopper, are you new?

Same head coach, same quarterback. Do you expect them to suddenly forget how to coach and play football? Do you think Atlanta is some magical team that defies all of history and will rewrite the history books because they are special snowflakes just like you?

Well... Atlanta did re-write the record books... Highest scoring team of all time

Not saying I like like or dislike them in this spot but your logic is definitely faulty. Of all the teams NE has faced in the super bowl, the Falcons "project" to score more than any of them

The NFL is evolving every year and it's evolving into a more offensive league. You can't use past Super Bowls to project what's going to happen this year. The chance of a team scoring 30 points and losing is exponentially higher than it was even 15 years ago

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Gavinnick

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Posted: Jan. 25, 2017 - 10:09 AM ET #15

Quote Originally Posted by Nycgags:

-3 point spread seems to be right on the money. If you think Atlanta will play above the ability they have shown this season and Patriots will fall short then bet Atlanta.

If you think Patriots have been here before w/ Belichick and no way in hell do they play below their potential then bet Patriots.

Per Colin Cowherds Show Yesterday:

"I have a respected lines maker who says the Patriots very well could be favored by -7 to -8 Points"

Colin himself said he had it at -3.5 (Patriots)

To much bait going on with "Take patriots to win by at least -3"

Therefore the 1,2 is very crucial here

Patriots win by 1,2 is the only way for the Books to clean up in my opinion

Otherwise they will need a Falcons WIN SU

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Gavinnick

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Posted: Jan. 25, 2017 - 10:10 AM ET #16

Quote Originally Posted by thawv:

What does anything that happened in 2004 have to do with this game? Or any of the other SB games that you mentioned?

Things are connected weather you or anyone else believes it or not

I believe this is a good insight to why this final number could fall on 1, 2 or even 3 for a patriots Victory

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Nycgags

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Posted: Jan. 25, 2017 - 10:28 AM ET #17

Quote Originally Posted by Contrarian21:

you're a complete moron if you think any past team other than these current players mean anything relating to the outcome. Keep weighing your stats though.

I have read your posts and other than being insulting you have provided ZERO insight into any of your predictions and will thusly be ignored.

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rm990

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Posted: Jan. 25, 2017 - 10:30 AM ET #18

Quote Originally Posted by Gavinnick:

Per Colin Cowherds Show Yesterday:

"I have a respected lines maker who says the Patriots very well could be favored by -7 to -8 Points"

Colin himself said he had it at -3.5 (Patriots)

To much bait going on with "Take patriots to win by at least -3"

Therefore the 1,2 is very crucial here

Patriots win by 1,2 is the only way for the Books to clean up in my opinion

Otherwise they will need a Falcons WIN SU

If anyone believes the Patriots are 7-8 points better than Atl, they're wrong. Plain and simple. Atl has a +1.1 yards per play differential while NE sits at +.7

I guess some guys just have an aversion to numbers. The warm fuzzy false narrative apparently sells more

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Nycgags

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Posted: Jan. 25, 2017 - 10:31 AM ET #19

Quote Originally Posted by rm990:

Well... Atlanta did re-write the record books... Highest scoring team of all time

Not saying I like like or dislike them in this spot but your logic is definitely faulty. Of all the teams NE has faced in the super bowl, the Falcons "project" to score more than any of them

The NFL is evolving every year and it's evolving into a more offensive league. You can't use past Super Bowls to project what's going to happen this year. The chance of a team scoring 30 points and losing is exponentially higher than it was even 15 years ago

I like making up stats and posting them as facts too.

Team Season Points Points Per Game

1 Denver Broncos 2013 606 37.9

2 New England Patriots 2007 589 36.8

3 Green Bay Packers 2011 560 35.0

4 New England Patriots 2012 557 34.8

5 Minnesota Vikings 1998 556 34.8

6 New Orleans Saints 2011 547 34.2

7 Atlanta Falcons 2016 540 33.8

8 St. Louis Rams 2000 540 33.8

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Nycgags

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Posted: Jan. 25, 2017 - 10:33 AM ET #20

Quote Originally Posted by rm990:

If anyone believes the Patriots are 7-8 points better than Atl, they're wrong. Plain and simple. Atl has a +1.1 yards per play differential while NE sits at +.7

I guess some guys just have an aversion to numbers. The warm fuzzy false narrative apparently sells more

Let me know if you recognize what this set of numbers represent. Then tell me the last time Atlanta has faced an opponent that allowed these types of scores over a season:

0

3

10

13

14

16

17

21

23

24

25

31

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Nycgags

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Posts: 1042

Posted: Jan. 25, 2017 - 10:39 AM ET #21

For comparison here are Atlanta's opponent's scores. Their defensive capabilities are NIGHT and DAY.

13

14

16

19

24

26

28

29

31

32

33

NEP Median Opp score = 16.5

ATL Median Opp score = 28

That alone is a difference of 11.5 points, LMFAO.

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ndsent1

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Posts: 19113

Posted: Jan. 25, 2017 - 10:47 AM ET #22

Atlanta By 6...............

Good Luck Y'all

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Nycgags

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Posts: 1042

Posted: Jan. 25, 2017 - 10:49 AM ET #23

Quote Originally Posted by Nycgags:

I like making up stats and posting them as facts too.

Team Season Points Points Per Game

1 Denver Broncos 2013 606 37.9

2 New England Patriots 2007 589 36.8

3 Green Bay Packers 2011 560 35.0

4 New England Patriots 2012 557 34.8

5 Minnesota Vikings 1998 556 34.8

6 New Orleans Saints 2011 547 34.2

7 Atlanta Falcons 2016 540 33.8

8 St. Louis Rams 2000 540 33.8

Just to drive this point home to all of the DELUSIONAL Atlanta backers that ASSUME having most points scored in a season relates to ANY forecast in the SB, here are the 6 teams that previously scored more points than the AMAZING 2016 Atlanta Falcons:

2013 Broncos 606, score 8 in the SB LOSS

Seattle Seahawks 43, Denver Broncos 8

2007 Patriots 589, score 14 in the SB LOSS

New York Giants 17, New England 14

2011 Packers 560, did not make SB (effective: LOSS)

New York Giants 21, New England Patriots 17

2012 Patriots 557, did not make SB: (effective: LOSS)

Baltimore Ravens 34, San Francisco 49ers 31

1999 Vikings 556, did not make SB: (effective: LOSS)

St. Louis 23, Tennessee 16

2011 Saints 547, did not make SB: (effective: LOSS)

New York Giants 21, New England Patriots 17

2016 Falcons 540, ???

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Nycgags

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Posts: 1042

Posted: Jan. 25, 2017 - 10:57 AM ET #24

Looking at the top 20 scoring teams going back to 1990, only 4 of them (25%) of them won the Superbowl that same year, many did not even make it to the SB. That's some pretty slim odds to base a SB bet on.

Here are the four in order of most points scored:

99 Rams

09 Saints

94 49er's

98 Broncos

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OStateBucks

Prospect

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Posts: 57

Posted: Jan. 25, 2017 - 12:06 PM ET #25

Atlanta played 4 reasonably good defenses this season and they scored in the mid to high 20s.

W3 vs Kansas City (ranked #6) - 28 points (2 point loss)

W9 vs Tampa Bay (ranked #15) - 43 points

W6 vs Seattle (ranked #2) - 24 points (2 point loss)

W5 vs Denver (ranked #3) - 23 points

Atlanta is likely to be at least in the 24-28 points range, and maybe a bit higher if you factor in momentum, etc.

The times NE played 2 reasonably good offenses this season and the opposing team scored in the 20s-30s.

W10 vs Seattle (ranked #18) - 31 points (Seattle scored 9 points above season average)

W8 vs Buffalo (ranked #10) - 25 points (Buffalo scored exactly the same as season avg)

NE's scoring defense rankings benefited a lot from playing just terrible offenses, with 8 games with teams ranked 22 or worse in scoring offense.

- In those 8 games, NE's opponents avg 17.8 points per game while NE held them to 9.1, or 8.7 points below avg.

- In the 7 games against opponents ranked in the top 18 in scoring offense, NE's opponents avg 24.0 points per game while NE held them to 21.0, or 3.0 points below avg.

NE's track record suggests they can hold a good offense to a field goal lower than their scoring average.

Atlanta's scoring offense is adversely impacted by playing more teams with higher scoring offenses, with 12 games against teams in the top 18 of scoring offenses ranks.

- In those 12 games, ATL's opponents avg 24.5 points per game while ATL gave up 27.3, or 2.9 points above avg.

- In the 3 games against opponents ranked in the bottom of scoring offense, ATL's opponents avg 18.0 points per game while ATL gave up 14.0, or 3.7 points below avg.

Atlanta's track record suggests they will give up an extra field goal to a good offense vs their scoring average.

If you use this to cap the game:

- Atlanta avgs 33.8 points per game, and will be held to ~3 points below average. Atlanta scores 30.8 vs NE.

- NE avgs 27.6 points per game, and will score a field goal more than average. NE scores 30.6 vs ATL.

The game is virtually a pick'em. I'm taking the points and the over.