Atlanta played 4 reasonably good defenses this season and they scored in the mid to high 20s.
W3 vs Kansas City (ranked #6) - 28 points (2 point loss)
W9 vs Tampa Bay (ranked #15) - 43 points
W6 vs Seattle (ranked #2) - 24 points (2 point loss)
W5 vs Denver (ranked #3) - 23 points
Atlanta is likely to be at least in the 24-28 points range, and maybe a bit higher if you factor in momentum, etc.
The times NE played 2 reasonably good offenses this season and the opposing team scored in the 20s-30s.
W10 vs Seattle (ranked #18) - 31 points (Seattle scored 9 points above season average)
W8 vs Buffalo (ranked #10) - 25 points (Buffalo scored exactly the same as season avg)
NE's scoring defense rankings benefited a lot from playing just terrible offenses, with 8 games with teams ranked 22 or worse in scoring offense.
- In those 8 games, NE's opponents avg 17.8 points per game while NE held them to 9.1, or 8.7 points below avg.
- In the 7 games against opponents ranked in the top 18 in scoring offense, NE's opponents avg 24.0 points per game while NE held them to 21.0, or 3.0 points below avg.
NE's track record suggests they can hold a good offense to a field goal lower than their scoring average.
Atlanta's scoring offense is adversely impacted by playing more teams with higher scoring offenses, with 12 games against teams in the top 18 of scoring offenses ranks.
- In those 12 games, ATL's opponents avg 24.5 points per game while ATL gave up 27.3, or 2.9 points above avg.
- In the 3 games against opponents ranked in the bottom of scoring offense, ATL's opponents avg 18.0 points per game while ATL gave up 14.0, or 3.7 points below avg.
Atlanta's track record suggests they will give up an extra field goal to a good offense vs their scoring average.
If you use this to cap the game:
- Atlanta avgs 33.8 points per game, and will be held to ~3 points below average. Atlanta scores 30.8 vs NE.
- NE avgs 27.6 points per game, and will score a field goal more than average. NE scores 30.6 vs ATL.
The game is virtually a pick'em. I'm taking the points and the over.
mic drop.
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Quote Originally Posted by OStateBucks:
Atlanta played 4 reasonably good defenses this season and they scored in the mid to high 20s.
W3 vs Kansas City (ranked #6) - 28 points (2 point loss)
W9 vs Tampa Bay (ranked #15) - 43 points
W6 vs Seattle (ranked #2) - 24 points (2 point loss)
W5 vs Denver (ranked #3) - 23 points
Atlanta is likely to be at least in the 24-28 points range, and maybe a bit higher if you factor in momentum, etc.
The times NE played 2 reasonably good offenses this season and the opposing team scored in the 20s-30s.
W10 vs Seattle (ranked #18) - 31 points (Seattle scored 9 points above season average)
W8 vs Buffalo (ranked #10) - 25 points (Buffalo scored exactly the same as season avg)
NE's scoring defense rankings benefited a lot from playing just terrible offenses, with 8 games with teams ranked 22 or worse in scoring offense.
- In those 8 games, NE's opponents avg 17.8 points per game while NE held them to 9.1, or 8.7 points below avg.
- In the 7 games against opponents ranked in the top 18 in scoring offense, NE's opponents avg 24.0 points per game while NE held them to 21.0, or 3.0 points below avg.
NE's track record suggests they can hold a good offense to a field goal lower than their scoring average.
Atlanta's scoring offense is adversely impacted by playing more teams with higher scoring offenses, with 12 games against teams in the top 18 of scoring offenses ranks.
- In those 12 games, ATL's opponents avg 24.5 points per game while ATL gave up 27.3, or 2.9 points above avg.
- In the 3 games against opponents ranked in the bottom of scoring offense, ATL's opponents avg 18.0 points per game while ATL gave up 14.0, or 3.7 points below avg.
Atlanta's track record suggests they will give up an extra field goal to a good offense vs their scoring average.
If you use this to cap the game:
- Atlanta avgs 33.8 points per game, and will be held to ~3 points below average. Atlanta scores 30.8 vs NE.
- NE avgs 27.6 points per game, and will score a field goal more than average. NE scores 30.6 vs ATL.
The game is virtually a pick'em. I'm taking the points and the over.
Of course, teams can way outperform/underperform in the playoffs.
Last year, Denver was only holding top 10 offenses to 1-3 points below their average in the regular season, but then proceeded to destroy the top 4 scoring offenses in the playoffs to the tune of 10, 11, and 21 points below scoring average. So...black swan event?
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Of course, teams can way outperform/underperform in the playoffs.
Last year, Denver was only holding top 10 offenses to 1-3 points below their average in the regular season, but then proceeded to destroy the top 4 scoring offenses in the playoffs to the tune of 10, 11, and 21 points below scoring average. So...black swan event?
Same head coach, same quarterback. Do you expect them to suddenly forget how to coach and play football? Do you think Atlanta is some magical team that defies all of history and will rewrite the history books because they are special snowflakes just like you?
That's the only common denominator. Vegas loves bettors like you. It keeps them in business. Try to think about this years SB, and not the past ones. Believe it or not, they don't have anything to do with this years game.
I along with everybody else on this forum can do without the ignorant name calling also. You're showing you age.
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Quote Originally Posted by Nycgags:
Oh grasshopper, are you new?
Same head coach, same quarterback. Do you expect them to suddenly forget how to coach and play football? Do you think Atlanta is some magical team that defies all of history and will rewrite the history books because they are special snowflakes just like you?
That's the only common denominator. Vegas loves bettors like you. It keeps them in business. Try to think about this years SB, and not the past ones. Believe it or not, they don't have anything to do with this years game.
I along with everybody else on this forum can do without the ignorant name calling also. You're showing you age.
Atlanta played 4 reasonably good defenses this season and they scored in the mid to high 20s.
Atlanta played 4 reasonably good defenses this season and they scored in the mid to high 20s.
Atlanta is likely to be at least in the 24-28 points range, and maybe a bit higher if you factor in momentum, etc.
Atlanta only scored 15 against the Eagles.
New England has given up the fewest points in the league, an argument could be made New England holds Atlanta to 18 points or less, this isn't even an outlier, there is a very good chance they do this.
NE's track record suggests they can hold a good offense to a field goal lower than their scoring average.
This is flat out wrong. Take each team's average points scored and compare it to New Englands 15.6 points allowed per game, I assure you it is way higher than a FG.
Atlanta's scoring offense is adversely impacted by playing more teams with higher scoring offenses, with 12 games against teams in the top 18 of scoring offenses ranks.
Atlanta has played more games against teams ranked in the bottom half of DVOA than they have in the top half.
Atlanta's track record suggests they will give up an extra field goal to a good offense vs their scoring average.
Hogwash, Atlanta has given up at least 28 points 9 times this season, Patriots will score at least 31 against them IMO.
The game is virtually a pick'em. I'm taking the points and the over.
BOL, I think you are off by at least 12 points.
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Quote Originally Posted by OStateBucks:
Atlanta played 4 reasonably good defenses this season and they scored in the mid to high 20s.
Atlanta played 4 reasonably good defenses this season and they scored in the mid to high 20s.
Atlanta is likely to be at least in the 24-28 points range, and maybe a bit higher if you factor in momentum, etc.
Atlanta only scored 15 against the Eagles.
New England has given up the fewest points in the league, an argument could be made New England holds Atlanta to 18 points or less, this isn't even an outlier, there is a very good chance they do this.
NE's track record suggests they can hold a good offense to a field goal lower than their scoring average.
This is flat out wrong. Take each team's average points scored and compare it to New Englands 15.6 points allowed per game, I assure you it is way higher than a FG.
Atlanta's scoring offense is adversely impacted by playing more teams with higher scoring offenses, with 12 games against teams in the top 18 of scoring offenses ranks.
Atlanta has played more games against teams ranked in the bottom half of DVOA than they have in the top half.
Atlanta's track record suggests they will give up an extra field goal to a good offense vs their scoring average.
Hogwash, Atlanta has given up at least 28 points 9 times this season, Patriots will score at least 31 against them IMO.
The game is virtually a pick'em. I'm taking the points and the over.
Patriots have only given up more than 17 points 5 times this season. In those 5 games giving up more than 17 points they won 80% of them, only losing to Seattle.
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Patriots have only given up more than 17 points 5 times this season. In those 5 games giving up more than 17 points they won 80% of them, only losing to Seattle.
That's the only common denominator. Vegas loves bettors like you. It keeps them in business. Try to think about this years SB, and not the past ones. Believe it or not, they don't have anything to do with this years game.
I along with everybody else on this forum can do without the ignorant name calling also. You're showing you age.
I am 46, you?
When you make ignorant statements like past results do not matter in the world of sports betting, particularly when the Head Coach and QB are the same people, expect to be called ignorant. Sorry the betting world is harsh place, maybe you are too young and fragile to be here?
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Quote Originally Posted by thawv:
That's the only common denominator. Vegas loves bettors like you. It keeps them in business. Try to think about this years SB, and not the past ones. Believe it or not, they don't have anything to do with this years game.
I along with everybody else on this forum can do without the ignorant name calling also. You're showing you age.
I am 46, you?
When you make ignorant statements like past results do not matter in the world of sports betting, particularly when the Head Coach and QB are the same people, expect to be called ignorant. Sorry the betting world is harsh place, maybe you are too young and fragile to be here?
Atlanta played 4 reasonably good defenses this season and they scored in the mid to high 20s.
Atlanta is likely to be at least in the 24-28 points range, and maybe a bit higher if you factor in momentum, etc.
Atlanta only scored 15 against the Eagles.
New England has given up the fewest points in the league, an argument could be made New England holds Atlanta to 18 points or less, this isn't even an outlier, there is a very good chance they do this.
NE's track record suggests they can hold a good offense to a field goal lower than their scoring average.
This is flat out wrong. Take each team's average points scored and compare it to New Englands 15.6 points allowed per game, I assure you it is way higher than a FG.
Atlanta's scoring offense is adversely impacted by playing more teams with higher scoring offenses, with 12 games against teams in the top 18 of scoring offenses ranks.
Atlanta has played more games against teams ranked in the bottom half of DVOA than they have in the top half.
Atlanta's track record suggests they will give up an extra field goal to a good offense vs their scoring average.
Hogwash, Atlanta has given up at least 28 points 9 times this season, Patriots will score at least 31 against them IMO.
The game is virtually a pick'em. I'm taking the points and the over.
BOL, I think you are off by at least 12 points.
Atlanta only scored 15 against the Eagles.
New England has given up the fewest points in the league, an argument could be made New England holds Atlanta to 18 points or less, this isn't even an outlier, there is a very good chance they do this.
Fair point, should have included PHI.
This is flat out wrong. Take each team's average points scored and compare it to New Englands 15.6 points allowed per game, I assure you it is way higher than a FG.
The avg points per game scored by NE's 16 opponents is 20.8. 5.2 points is not "way higher" than a FG. League avg points per game is 22.8, so NE clearly has a SOS advantage. Actually, half the sample are games against the Rams, Jets, Texans, 49ers, Browns - the 5 worst scoring offenses in the league. Those 5 teams average 16.7 PPG.
I only care about the relevant sample, e.g. games NE played against good competition. Look at the semi-decent offenses NE faced in Seattle and Buffalo.
- Seattle scored 31, averages 22 for the season
- Buffalo scored 25 (in W8), averages 25 for the season
- Baltimore scored 23, averages 21 for the season (Calling Baltimore a semi-decent offense is a stretch, I know. But running out of teams as examples...)
Atlanta has played more games against teams ranked in the bottom half of DVOA than they have in the top half.
I meant Atlanta's scoring defense is adversely impacted by playing good offenses. Don't disagree ATL played mostly poor defenses.
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Quote Originally Posted by Nycgags:
Atlanta played 4 reasonably good defenses this season and they scored in the mid to high 20s.
Atlanta is likely to be at least in the 24-28 points range, and maybe a bit higher if you factor in momentum, etc.
Atlanta only scored 15 against the Eagles.
New England has given up the fewest points in the league, an argument could be made New England holds Atlanta to 18 points or less, this isn't even an outlier, there is a very good chance they do this.
NE's track record suggests they can hold a good offense to a field goal lower than their scoring average.
This is flat out wrong. Take each team's average points scored and compare it to New Englands 15.6 points allowed per game, I assure you it is way higher than a FG.
Atlanta's scoring offense is adversely impacted by playing more teams with higher scoring offenses, with 12 games against teams in the top 18 of scoring offenses ranks.
Atlanta has played more games against teams ranked in the bottom half of DVOA than they have in the top half.
Atlanta's track record suggests they will give up an extra field goal to a good offense vs their scoring average.
Hogwash, Atlanta has given up at least 28 points 9 times this season, Patriots will score at least 31 against them IMO.
The game is virtually a pick'em. I'm taking the points and the over.
BOL, I think you are off by at least 12 points.
Atlanta only scored 15 against the Eagles.
New England has given up the fewest points in the league, an argument could be made New England holds Atlanta to 18 points or less, this isn't even an outlier, there is a very good chance they do this.
Fair point, should have included PHI.
This is flat out wrong. Take each team's average points scored and compare it to New Englands 15.6 points allowed per game, I assure you it is way higher than a FG.
The avg points per game scored by NE's 16 opponents is 20.8. 5.2 points is not "way higher" than a FG. League avg points per game is 22.8, so NE clearly has a SOS advantage. Actually, half the sample are games against the Rams, Jets, Texans, 49ers, Browns - the 5 worst scoring offenses in the league. Those 5 teams average 16.7 PPG.
I only care about the relevant sample, e.g. games NE played against good competition. Look at the semi-decent offenses NE faced in Seattle and Buffalo.
- Seattle scored 31, averages 22 for the season
- Buffalo scored 25 (in W8), averages 25 for the season
- Baltimore scored 23, averages 21 for the season (Calling Baltimore a semi-decent offense is a stretch, I know. But running out of teams as examples...)
Atlanta has played more games against teams ranked in the bottom half of DVOA than they have in the top half.
I meant Atlanta's scoring defense is adversely impacted by playing good offenses. Don't disagree ATL played mostly poor defenses.
Too many people made the same bad arguments that New England is not a strong team because they had a soft schedule.
I proved them wrong pretty handily in how they disposed of Pittsburgh. Go ahead and read those threads. It boils down to this:
During the regular season, New England has held opponents to 17 or fewer points 11 times, this is significant.
During the playoffs, New England has held both opponents to 17 or fewer points.
If it was true New England's defense prowess was inflated due to a soft SOS then one would expect playoff caliber teams to be able to break this 17 point barrier. Pittsburgh average 25 ppg during regular season, even though it is only 1 data point, it proves the lack of offensive powerhouse opponents is not a reason to assume the Patriots will fold to a team like Atlanta.
If Pats can keep Pitt to 8 points under their season average, what is stopping them from doing the same to ATL. ATL average ppg was 33.75, take 8 points off and they are down to 25.75, still a respectable score, but not that great considering ATL has allowed opponents to score 28 or more points 9 times, putting NEP in a good position to match that number given they were in the top 3 in scoring this past season.
my 2 cents
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Too many people made the same bad arguments that New England is not a strong team because they had a soft schedule.
I proved them wrong pretty handily in how they disposed of Pittsburgh. Go ahead and read those threads. It boils down to this:
During the regular season, New England has held opponents to 17 or fewer points 11 times, this is significant.
During the playoffs, New England has held both opponents to 17 or fewer points.
If it was true New England's defense prowess was inflated due to a soft SOS then one would expect playoff caliber teams to be able to break this 17 point barrier. Pittsburgh average 25 ppg during regular season, even though it is only 1 data point, it proves the lack of offensive powerhouse opponents is not a reason to assume the Patriots will fold to a team like Atlanta.
If Pats can keep Pitt to 8 points under their season average, what is stopping them from doing the same to ATL. ATL average ppg was 33.75, take 8 points off and they are down to 25.75, still a respectable score, but not that great considering ATL has allowed opponents to score 28 or more points 9 times, putting NEP in a good position to match that number given they were in the top 3 in scoring this past season.
Too many people made the same bad arguments that New England is not a strong team because they had a soft schedule.
I proved them wrong pretty handily in how they disposed of Pittsburgh. Go ahead and read those threads. It boils down to this:
During the regular season, New England has held opponents to 17 or fewer points 11 times, this is significant.
During the playoffs, New England has held both opponents to 17 or fewer points.
If it was true New England's defense prowess was inflated due to a soft SOS then one would expect playoff caliber teams to be able to break this 17 point barrier. Pittsburgh average 25 ppg during regular season, even though it is only 1 data point, it proves the lack of offensive powerhouse opponents is not a reason to assume the Patriots will fold to a team like Atlanta.
If Pats can keep Pitt to 8 points under their season average, what is stopping them from doing the same to ATL. ATL average ppg was 33.75, take 8 points off and they are down to 25.75, still a respectable score, but not that great considering ATL has allowed opponents to score 28 or more points 9 times, putting NEP in a good position to match that number given they were in the top 3 in scoring this past season.
my 2 cents
Rebuttal to point #1
- 6 of the 11 times are Rams, Jets, Texans, 49ers, Browns, and a 7th was a Landry Jones Steelers. That's also significant. Those 5 teams average 16.7 points per game, that means 50% of the time they score under 17.
Rebuttal to point #2
- Brock Osweiler. Enough said.
- Pit was a good defensive performance. You could make the point that Bell leaving early impacted the Pit offense, but not that much.
Rebuttal to point #3
- I didn't say NE would fold, in fact I think they'll score a FG higher than their average
- Given the relative offensive vs defensive comparisons of the two teams, I think it's a coin flip
Key problem to capping NE is that they haven't played that much good competition, so really there isn't much evidence on how good they'll fare against elite QBs. The only two times NE has faced a good QB this season, we've seen 2 opposite performances by the defense:
- Bad Defense vs Seahawks. Gave up 31 and +9 relative to SEA average.
- Good Defense vs playoff Pittsburgh. Gave up 17 and -8 relative to PIT avg.
You can make the argument if SEA can go into Foxborough and hang 9 points above their average, what's stopping ATL from scoring 42 with a better offense?
That's why I'm taking the points - two evenly matched teams based on their body of work.
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Quote Originally Posted by Nycgags:
Too many people made the same bad arguments that New England is not a strong team because they had a soft schedule.
I proved them wrong pretty handily in how they disposed of Pittsburgh. Go ahead and read those threads. It boils down to this:
During the regular season, New England has held opponents to 17 or fewer points 11 times, this is significant.
During the playoffs, New England has held both opponents to 17 or fewer points.
If it was true New England's defense prowess was inflated due to a soft SOS then one would expect playoff caliber teams to be able to break this 17 point barrier. Pittsburgh average 25 ppg during regular season, even though it is only 1 data point, it proves the lack of offensive powerhouse opponents is not a reason to assume the Patriots will fold to a team like Atlanta.
If Pats can keep Pitt to 8 points under their season average, what is stopping them from doing the same to ATL. ATL average ppg was 33.75, take 8 points off and they are down to 25.75, still a respectable score, but not that great considering ATL has allowed opponents to score 28 or more points 9 times, putting NEP in a good position to match that number given they were in the top 3 in scoring this past season.
my 2 cents
Rebuttal to point #1
- 6 of the 11 times are Rams, Jets, Texans, 49ers, Browns, and a 7th was a Landry Jones Steelers. That's also significant. Those 5 teams average 16.7 points per game, that means 50% of the time they score under 17.
Rebuttal to point #2
- Brock Osweiler. Enough said.
- Pit was a good defensive performance. You could make the point that Bell leaving early impacted the Pit offense, but not that much.
Rebuttal to point #3
- I didn't say NE would fold, in fact I think they'll score a FG higher than their average
- Given the relative offensive vs defensive comparisons of the two teams, I think it's a coin flip
Key problem to capping NE is that they haven't played that much good competition, so really there isn't much evidence on how good they'll fare against elite QBs. The only two times NE has faced a good QB this season, we've seen 2 opposite performances by the defense:
- Bad Defense vs Seahawks. Gave up 31 and +9 relative to SEA average.
- Good Defense vs playoff Pittsburgh. Gave up 17 and -8 relative to PIT avg.
You can make the argument if SEA can go into Foxborough and hang 9 points above their average, what's stopping ATL from scoring 42 with a better offense?
That's why I'm taking the points - two evenly matched teams based on their body of work.
When you make ignorant statements like past results do not matter in the world of sports betting, particularly when the Head Coach and QB are the same people, expect to be called ignorant. Sorry the betting world is harsh place, maybe you are too young and fragile to be here?
I'm 54. The reason I thought you were younger is because you act younger
Past performance is definitely one of the biggest indicators or the biggest of sports betting. But to go back 10 years is nonsense
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Quote Originally Posted by Nycgags:
I am 46, you?
When you make ignorant statements like past results do not matter in the world of sports betting, particularly when the Head Coach and QB are the same people, expect to be called ignorant. Sorry the betting world is harsh place, maybe you are too young and fragile to be here?
I'm 54. The reason I thought you were younger is because you act younger
Past performance is definitely one of the biggest indicators or the biggest of sports betting. But to go back 10 years is nonsense
Sorry man, your capping strategy is pretty bad. You keep falling back on Patriots have not played anyone good and trying to take a small sample size to back your desire for Atlanta to put up a high score.
You don't get it.
You undervalue the fact this will be the Patriots 7th SuperBowl appearance under the Brady / Belichick era of which they have never given up 30 points in any of those games. Too many people undervalue experience at this stage. Patriots have been there, they know how to prepare, they will not be distracted by media week.
Brady vs. Quinn - no contest on who will game-plan this game better. I mentioned it before, this is Quinn's first season as HC w/ 5 losses. Last time Belichick had 5 more or losses was 8 seasons ago, this is more significant than any of these new cappers care to admit, he knows how to win games. Loosely talking about points scored / given up is all in context - Belichick cares more about winning then he does about beating Atlanta in points scored against opponents.
Falcons have allowed opponents score at will against them and Belichick / Brady will take advantage of this and easily put up 30 points. Only 2 teams in 50 SuperBowls have ever lost when they score 30 points. Only way Patriots lose is if their Defense implodes and allows Atlanta to run up the score which goes against not only this season's history but the past two decades of their SuperBowl performances. I've already shown only 4 teams out of 20 that lead the league in scoring went on to win the SuperBowl. Too many people see the number 540 and assume it means SuperBowl win, hell you even had one guy saying it was the most points scored ever, LMFAO.
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Sorry man, your capping strategy is pretty bad. You keep falling back on Patriots have not played anyone good and trying to take a small sample size to back your desire for Atlanta to put up a high score.
You don't get it.
You undervalue the fact this will be the Patriots 7th SuperBowl appearance under the Brady / Belichick era of which they have never given up 30 points in any of those games. Too many people undervalue experience at this stage. Patriots have been there, they know how to prepare, they will not be distracted by media week.
Brady vs. Quinn - no contest on who will game-plan this game better. I mentioned it before, this is Quinn's first season as HC w/ 5 losses. Last time Belichick had 5 more or losses was 8 seasons ago, this is more significant than any of these new cappers care to admit, he knows how to win games. Loosely talking about points scored / given up is all in context - Belichick cares more about winning then he does about beating Atlanta in points scored against opponents.
Falcons have allowed opponents score at will against them and Belichick / Brady will take advantage of this and easily put up 30 points. Only 2 teams in 50 SuperBowls have ever lost when they score 30 points. Only way Patriots lose is if their Defense implodes and allows Atlanta to run up the score which goes against not only this season's history but the past two decades of their SuperBowl performances. I've already shown only 4 teams out of 20 that lead the league in scoring went on to win the SuperBowl. Too many people see the number 540 and assume it means SuperBowl win, hell you even had one guy saying it was the most points scored ever, LMFAO.
I'm comfortable with my playoff picks and record. I'm not a NFL fan (as you might tell from my screen name), so I just cap based on probability of success.
PIT@NE is one of the three games I missed in the playoffs, and I'm comfortable batting 70% vs the spread. I've had ATL@NE as the predicted Super Bowl since before the playoffs, and nothing I've seen thus far changes my view of things.
I'm comfortable with my playoff picks and record. I'm not a NFL fan (as you might tell from my screen name), so I just cap based on probability of success.
PIT@NE is one of the three games I missed in the playoffs, and I'm comfortable batting 70% vs the spread. I've had ATL@NE as the predicted Super Bowl since before the playoffs, and nothing I've seen thus far changes my view of things.
I'm comfortable with my playoff picks and record. I'm not a NFL fan (as you might tell from my screen name), so I just cap based on probability of success.
PIT@NE is one of the three games I missed in the playoffs, and I'm comfortable batting 70% vs the spread. I've had ATL@NE as the predicted Super Bowl since before the playoffs, and nothing I've seen thus far changes my view of things.
I wouldn't pat yourself on the back for your record there were an usually high number of favorites that won during this playoff cycle. It is more likely that you will regress to the mean and fail with your SB pick IMO then you will in extending your lucky winning streak.
Pats crack 30 points
ATL doesn't
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Quote Originally Posted by OStateBucks:
I'm comfortable with my playoff picks and record. I'm not a NFL fan (as you might tell from my screen name), so I just cap based on probability of success.
PIT@NE is one of the three games I missed in the playoffs, and I'm comfortable batting 70% vs the spread. I've had ATL@NE as the predicted Super Bowl since before the playoffs, and nothing I've seen thus far changes my view of things.
I wouldn't pat yourself on the back for your record there were an usually high number of favorites that won during this playoff cycle. It is more likely that you will regress to the mean and fail with your SB pick IMO then you will in extending your lucky winning streak.
-3 point spread seems to be right on the money. If you think Atlanta will play above the ability they have shown this season and Patriots will fall short then bet Atlanta.
If you think Patriots have been here before w/ Belichick and no way in hell do they play below their potential then bet Patriots.
word to the homeys.
bigFnPOO
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Quote Originally Posted by Nycgags:
-3 point spread seems to be right on the money. If you think Atlanta will play above the ability they have shown this season and Patriots will fall short then bet Atlanta.
If you think Patriots have been here before w/ Belichick and no way in hell do they play below their potential then bet Patriots.
Can someone please point me to a good offense NE has faced this year? I get that their regular season defensive stats were impressive and they shouldn't be discounted entirely but wow, they played some garbage offenses. Playing Atlanta will be like playing in a completely different league.
That being said Tom Brady should be able to gash Atlanta's defense as well. Atlanta is going to put up 30+. Question is, do they give up 35?
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Can someone please point me to a good offense NE has faced this year? I get that their regular season defensive stats were impressive and they shouldn't be discounted entirely but wow, they played some garbage offenses. Playing Atlanta will be like playing in a completely different league.
That being said Tom Brady should be able to gash Atlanta's defense as well. Atlanta is going to put up 30+. Question is, do they give up 35?
New England holds Atlanta to 18 points or less, this isn't even an outlier, there is a very good chance they do this.
i lol'ed....especially since atl has been averaging close to 40ppg in their last 6 games...and the pats defense has always been their Achilles throughout the years
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New England holds Atlanta to 18 points or less, this isn't even an outlier, there is a very good chance they do this.
i lol'ed....especially since atl has been averaging close to 40ppg in their last 6 games...and the pats defense has always been their Achilles throughout the years
New England holds Atlanta to 18 points or less, this isn't even an outlier, there is a very good chance they do this.
i lol'ed....especially since atl has been averaging close to 40ppg in their last 6 games...and the pats defense has always been their Achilles throughout the years
Not sure what planet you are from.
Here are the points given up by NEP this season, more than half less than 18:
0
3
3
10
13
14
16
16
17
17
17
21
23
24
25
31
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Quote Originally Posted by poopy:
New England holds Atlanta to 18 points or less, this isn't even an outlier, there is a very good chance they do this.
i lol'ed....especially since atl has been averaging close to 40ppg in their last 6 games...and the pats defense has always been their Achilles throughout the years
Not sure what planet you are from.
Here are the points given up by NEP this season, more than half less than 18:
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