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Ask yourself is this Super Bowl going to be a Black Swan event?

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Posted: #51
69% of opponents in fact have been under 18, this doesn't even include the two POST-SEASON wins keeping Opps under 18.
 
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Posted: #52
'13 Broncos, 606 points reg season, 8 points in the SB
'07 Patriots, 589 points reg season, 14 points in the SB
'11 Packers, 560 reg season, did not make SB; lost division scoring 20 points
'12 Patriots, 557 reg season, did not make SB; lost conference scoring 13 points
'98 Vikings, 556 reg season, did not make SB; lost conference scoring 27 points
'11 Saints, 547 reg season, did not make SB; lost division scoring 32 points
'00 Rams, 540 reg season, did not make SB; lost wild card scoring 28 points

Out of the 7 teams that had higher season points for totals over this year's Falcons, only 2 made it to the Super Bowl scoring an average of 11 points each, well below the 18 I said was likely for the Falcons. 

Even if you average in the high scores of the other 5 teams that got eliminated early you still only  have an average of 20 points scored, very close to the 18 I said Falcons could end up with.

The Super Bowl is on whole 'nother level where defense is king, you could be the bully during the regular season picking off soft defenses and running up the score but that shizzle does not fly on the big stage.
 
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Posted: #53
Over 80% of teams Patriots played this season, including 2 post-season teams, Patriots held opponents to 18 points or less.

Meanwhile...56% of Atlanta's regular season opponents were able to score 28 points or more.  Patriots were #3 in scoring so they should easily eclipse that 28 point total and likely score 30 or more.

That is a 10-12 point differential.

Only 2 SB teams in history have scored 30 or more and lost (4%).

Echo.
 
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Posted: #54
Call it a gut feeling. Call it karma. Call it kismet. Brady and Belichick  are making me bet NE and the over. Stats are stats. B & B are magic!
 
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Posted: #55

Teams that scored 40+ points in a conference final went 3-5 in the Super Bowl.

  • The #1 scoring team in the NFL in that season has gone 10-10 in Super Bowls.
  • The #1 defense in fewest points allowed in that season has gone 14-6 in Super Bowls.
  • Twice the #1 offense and #1 defense were the same team (1996 GB and 1972 MIA) and both were SB winners.
  • The #1 offense in scoring has played the #1 defense in scoring 4 times, The #1 defense has gone 3-1. 

 
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Posted: #56
Quote Originally Posted by Nycgags:


Not sure what planet you are from.

Here are the points given up by NEP this season, more than half less than 18:

0
3
3
10
13
14
16
16
17
17
17
21
23
24
25
31

lol @ throwing out those numbers and thinking because of it ne will hold atl to 1 or 2 tds
 
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Posted: #57

Outcomes of games with BB coached teams vs. teams that scored 500+ points.

2013 W DEN 34-31 (DEN scored 7 points below their average total)
2013 L @ DEN 16-26 (DEN scored 12 points below their average total)
2009 L @ NOS 17-38 (NOS scored 6 points above their average total)
2004 W IND 27-24 (IND scored 10 points below their average total)
2004 W IND 20-3 (IND scored 31 points below their average total)
2001 L STL 17-24 (STL scored 9 points below their average total)
2001 W STL 20-17 (STL scored 16 points below their average total)
1998 L NYJ @ DEN 10-23 (DEN scored 9 points below their average total)

Overall 4-4 record, with an average score of 20-23. IMO, the most relevant point here is that the 500+ scoring teams averaged 11 ppg less than their regular scoring average.

The Falcons are averaging 34 ppg and have scored 30+ in 13 of 18 games (40+ in 6 games).
 
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Posted: #58
Quote Originally Posted by poopy:


lol @ throwing out those numbers and thinking because of it ne will hold atl to 1 or 2 tds

More like the mountain of evidence I keep dumping on top of your dopey heads.
 
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Posted: #59
Quote Originally Posted by Nycgags:


More like the mountain of evidence I keep dumping on top of your dopey heads.

funny how you think your meaningless stats will help anyone. Everyone knows the right side is ATL.
 
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Posted: #60
Quote Originally Posted by Contrarian21:


funny how you think your meaningless stats will help anyone. Everyone knows the right side is ATL.

Looking forward to seeing the troll fall off the face of the earth on 2/6/17.
 
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Posted: #61
Quote Originally Posted by poopy:


lol @ throwing out those numbers and thinking because of it ne will hold atl to 1 or 2 tds

My estimate is Atlanta puts up between 18-28 points, call 24 the middle (3 TD + 1 FG).

Westgate betting line has Ryan pretty firmly at 2 thrown TD passes:

Total TD Passes by Ryan: 
2  OV -180
UN +160

Total TD Passes by Ryan: 
2.5 OV +115
UN -135

Total TD Passes by Ryan:
3 OV +300
UN -360
 
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Posted: #62
Throw an INT in there for Ryan

Will Tom Brady Throw an INT?
YES +130
NO -150

Will Matt Ryan Throw an INT?
YES -120
NO EV
 
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Posted: #63
Quote Originally Posted by Nycgags:


My estimate is Atlanta puts up between 18-28 points, call 24 the middle (3 TD + 1 FG).

Westgate betting line has Ryan pretty firmly at 2 thrown TD passes:

Total TD Passes by Ryan: 
2  OV -180
UN +160

Total TD Passes by Ryan: 
2.5 OV +115
UN -135

Total TD Passes by Ryan:
3 OV +300
UN -360

great....throw this stuff out to fit your narrative of ATL scoring 18....it's good for you that we're to stupid to realize that ATL can run the ball in to score TD's..not to mention points from defense and special teams 

 
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Posted: #64
you want a great narrative.   i can do this as well,.

ATL has been playing great defense for almost the past 2 months. outside of the 19 garbage pts NO scored a few weeks ago in the fourth quarter they've done a number limiting many teams while destroying all of them offensively..

under this thinking you could say ATL has a good defense, coupled w/ NE having a strong D means it will be a low scoring grind it out game.....but you know that's tough to believe and swallow.  especially  when ATL can score every time they touch the ball, and NE likes to run the hurry up offense
 
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Posted: #65
Quote Originally Posted by poopy:

you want a great narrative.   i can do this as well,.

ATL has been playing great defense for almost the past 2 months. outside of the 19 garbage pts NO scored a few weeks ago in the fourth quarter they've done a number limiting many teams while destroying all of them offensively..

under this thinking you could say ATL has a good defense, coupled w/ NE having a strong D means it will be a low scoring grind it out game.....but you know that's tough to believe and swallow.  especially  when ATL can score every time they touch the ball, and NE likes to run the hurry up offense

Sorry.

You don't get it.

You are a bad capper.

Keep believing in your futures bet like every other numbskull Atlanta fan that bet on them to win the superbowl 3 months ago.
 
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Posted: #66
RE: Atlanta's defense has gotten better?

Average the two playoff games:

Averaged:
vs ATL 42.5% 3rd down conversions
vs ATL 66.5% RZ Efficiency
vs ATL Passing: 256/2.5/1.5
vs ATL Rushing: 100

Averaged:
vs NEP: 39% 3rd down conversions
vs NEP: 33% RZ Efficiency
vs NEP: Passing: 253/1/2
vs NEP: Rushing: 79.5

NEP better than ATL at every facet of Defense, not even an argument can be made that Atlanta is anywhere close on defense to Patriots' level. 
 
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Posted: #67
Nyc, you are a prick, ya know that? The way you talk to EVERYONE is pathetic. I try to be a nice guy on here to all but sometimes honesty is needed with some. You offer good data and insight but your ego and your false sense of yourself exceeds those offerings. Another punk hiding behind a computer....you fit right in to this circus. Well done. Good day buddy. 
 
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Posted: #68
Quote Originally Posted by Nycgags:


My estimate is Atlanta puts up between 18-28 points, call 24 the middle (3 TD + 1 FG).

Westgate betting line has Ryan pretty firmly at 2 thrown TD passes:

Total TD Passes by Ryan: 
2  OV -180
UN +160

Total TD Passes by Ryan: 
2.5 OV +115
UN -135

Total TD Passes by Ryan:
3 OV +300
UN -360

Just take the ATL TT Under 27.5 then. Vegas is already telling you what the expected ATL scoring is... 
 
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Posted: #69
Quote Originally Posted by Achilles1629:

Nyc, you are a prick, ya know that? The way you talk to EVERYONE is pathetic. I try to be a nice guy on here to all but sometimes honesty is needed with some. You offer good data and insight but your ego and your false sense of yourself exceeds those offerings. Another punk hiding behind a computer....you fit right in to this circus. Well done. Good day buddy. 

I have no tolerance arguing against blind ignorance only because they made a lucky futures bet.
 
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Posted: #70
Quote Originally Posted by OStateBucks:


Just take the ATL TT Under 27.5 then. Vegas is already telling you what the expected ATL scoring is... 

I might.  I am already on Patriots TT OV 31, was hoping to get 30 but I don't think a point makes a difference.

I might just load up on the some of the props instead like Patriots -7.5 for +180, -10.5 for +260, and -14.5 for +425.

Pats 32
Atl 24

They have some nice 8/1 odds bets for margin of victory of 9-12 and 13-16 but after seeing them beat Pitt by 19 who I think is a better team than the falcons, as does DVOA - I am hesitant.

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/dvoa-ratings/2017/week-19-dvoa-ratings
 
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Posted: #71
Quote Originally Posted by Nycgags:


Sorry.

You don't get it.

You are a bad capper.

Keep believing in your futures bet like every other numbskull Atlanta fan that bet on them to win the superbowl 3 months ago.

you're the one that doesn't get it cuck gagger.  i luv how you throw out all these numbers and how you come to your conclusions based off of it.  fact is there are much needed variables that are needed that can't be included for and accurate reading
 
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Posted: #72
Atlanta:  Last 6 games. 4 of 6 teams had losing records.
NEP:     Last 6 games.  6 of 6 teams were .500 or better.

Brady doesn't play against the quarterback, he plays against the defense.

Just saying.
 
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Posted: #73
Thanks for this great read, from some very knowledgable cappers. Thanks especially to NYK For your great info, and opinions. I believe you are completely right. But it is also great to the see other side of the equation. Thank you all. 
 
 
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Posted: #74
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