ATLANTA...is gonna get spanked

WAY.....too much raw emotion on this one seems like
 
I'm kinda biased myself TOWARDS NE.....LOVE Saban and Belichick

 BUT.....

IMO....the NE offense simply holds a much larger edge vs that Atlanta D......than vice -versa.....
     * spanked?....maybe not.....dominated maybe more like it....winning by 7-10+



WHY?

1)   Many seem to be handicapping this one the SAME....as a regular season game
        *in fact if it was....I might take the points here

BUT......always best....especially in these HUGE / ISOLATED / LIFE changing games...in which we are beaten senseless with information (most worthless)...
           
To take a few BIG steps back...and examine the BIG PICTURE

        IMO....a cocky / overconfident Atlanta team...with the league MVP and "the best offense in NFL history"...BUT with 2nd year HC...and one of the WORST D's in Super Bowl history
        Vs (probably) the top defensive mind in football history.....and when he retires likely the best HC as well...armed with one of the best QB's EVER...who (IN HIS MIND) is playing in his last SB
              
        Do you not think this means MORE > DRIVES Brady here?......HELLL yes it does.....damm guy still gets emotional anytime his slipping late in the draft is brought up....
 
  note:  sure he might play in a few more....but at 40 he MUST view this as his last (he ain't stewpid ya' know)....Matt Ryan will  likely see a few more
                      
  THIS....will be his LEGACY.....not huge sure....but IMO creates a slight EDGE
              
           $$   Super Bowl VIRGIN....vs a team in NE (Brady / Belichick have been in 14% of all SB)....IMO is worth a few points...that I can't find in the pointspread
         *3 seems to be a fair line....but I put this one at 5
                   note:  to be fair seems like 30% of NE players
                    are in their 1st SB too



2)  Does the MATCH-UP support NE as well?.......YEP

      A.     What kind of teams give NE / Brady trouble?....ones that can DISRUPT what they like to do on O > put Brady on the ground / screw up his timing...like Seattle / NYG / Denver / Baltimore.....SPECIFICALLY.....bring INSIDE pressure.....forcing him OUT of the pocket

Does this sound like ATL?.....nope....not only are they TERRIBLE vs the run (#32 late in the year)...but they / Beasley are a D that brings OUTSIDE pressure

       KEY:   The NE D feeds off the success of Brady / NE O as well....playing much better when the O does
       But also plays MUCH better when the O struggles (#1)...unlike Atlanta D BTW...their O struggles....they do too 
                  
     

   B.     NE O vs ATL D
                 
       ISSUE?....
                  a.    whatever adjustment ATL uses will (likely) play into a Pats strength.....

Blitz?.....Brady will pick them apart....maybe the best ever......

Go man? (ATL mostly a cov 3 (zone) team....Pats are the best at SCHEMING their receivers open here....
    *  ATL will get killed with pick plays ....plus RB's / TE's matched up vs ATL's weakest defenders in CB Poole / LB Campbell ( along with LB Jones)

  
      b.     ATL's best defender Beasley a factor here?...........probably not
                       
      *IF he stays at LE ....vs NE RT Cannon (no sacks allowed since week 1)....he's unlikely to be a difference maker
      note:  he only played 60% of snaps (lowest among edge rushers)....and only 20% of time when O had 2 WR's  (running downs)   >>  NE led the league with only 2 WR sets (50% of the time)......SO....unless a major strategical changes are made (like moving him INSIDE)....not only is he unlikely to be a factor...but not even on the damm field for over 50% of NE snaps
              note: in regular season....his stats were padded vs INFERIOR OL....and he has only ONE tipped pass in the 2 PO games 

              c.    STRATEGY

              *makes sense for NE to simply POUND Atlanta early.....but since when have they done this?
                       
               IF....Brady could run at all....they might.... but instead look for them to attack early....maybe a lot of up-tempo (with the improved health of RB Lewis especially)...get up to an early lead and force Atlanta to play from behind
           note:  Pats are the NFL's #1 O AND D....in the 1st quarter
            *THEN....2H maybe focus on POUNDING the weak Falcon D.....with a little BLOUNT FORCE TRAUMA.............


     notes:    

 the highest ranked O weeks 5-17 (Brady at QB) >  ..NE  (oops)
       
Falcons have the worst D NE has faced....rank #32 in stopping the run late season...and are HORRIFIC in the RZ (#32 / worst in SB history)

ATL blitzed MUCH more in their 2 PO games....but vs a terrible SEA OL....and beat up GB OL....
      note:   they MAY?.....follow HOU's blueprint and move Beasley (and Freeney) INSIDE....we'll see but I would think they continue to do what got them here (basically have been fairly conservative / predictable on D).....> a Seattle type penetrating 4-3 / 1 high S / mostly cover 3 ....with some cover 1 mixed in.             
 
no team gives up more YAC than Atlanta / only ONE misses more tackles

when NOT pressured....TB threw 21 TD / 0 INT
 *NE throws to RB 24% of time (#4) / ATL D is #32 in # of RB receptions

ATL starts 4 rookies on D....2 LB / CB / S
    
as Belichick has mentioned....ATL rotates 8 DL (25% of dropbacks)...look for NE to go up-tempo much more than they have in 2016

      C.      ATL O vs NE D

ISSUE.....NE / Belichick....is way too unpredictable here to guess what his plan will be....making prop bets tough too
    
a.    *take way Julio with #2 CB and S over the top?......OR focus on stopping the RUN (outside zone > set the edge) > LIMIT Sanu and Gabriel?

Since the ATL O BEGINS with their outside zone / stretch stuff....and awesome play action off of this...
        * and given that Julio will likely get HIS regardless....I look for NE to do the latter....let ATL have the underneath stuff > limit the BIG PLAY.....look for a ton of different coverages vs JJ....as nobody NE has matches up well one on one (Lowe OK but only 2Y / Butler too small / Ryan too slow)

        b.    NE can't bring pressure....so look for them to rush 3-4 > drop 7-8 into coverage.....IRONICALLY force Ryan to throw a LOT.......and maybe run more too (prop)
 
         c.      how good eggzactly....is the NE D?
                 *the best in the NFL?.....the top scoring D?.......NOPE
probably around #10 or so....toughest to move the length of the field and score on maybe (20.8 yards/pt / #1)....very tough in the RZ ....and on 3rd down....strong vs the run (3.8/rush - 87/g- #4 DVOA)....not so much vs the pass (#23 DVOA)....#23 in sacks)

         d.      NE may struggle in covering ATL's RB's in coverage as well....D is #31 in RB receptions

         e.       KEY?....if NE can't prevent ATL from getting OUTSIDE ('set the edge')....DISRUPTING their PLAN.....allowing their play action to unfold...they are gonna have a tough time...


           notes:    
       
 *top ATL OL... C Mack is playing with a fracured fibula      
        
*NE D is #1 in YAC

* NE allowed only one rush TD since week 8

 *when ATl struggled....Julio still had a big day (more targets).... but Sanu and Gabriel limited 
     
   ***  look for Ryan to out-stat Brady?....more attempts > completions > yards....as NE should run more....esp 2H if up
 

3)      OTHER STUFF

a.  PACE
            overall ATL #23 / NE #15
               *1H #10 and #7 resp......2H #30 and #22
                       note:  when UP 7+....NE #4 / if down 7+ ...#17
                                  ATL #16 and #29 resp. 
    
b.   av score by quarter

               ATL       NE
1Q         8-4          8'-2

2Q        10'-7        7-5

3Q         8'-4          7-3'

4Q         7-9'          6-5


c.      ST
         
               ATL      NE
overall       8         7
KO            28        2
KOR         29         26
Punt         29           3
PR           9             12
FG/XP      2             17             


d.    IMO....the 2 big PO wins ATL had seemed to create a lot of excitement.....were vs 2 beatable teams

GB?....seemed DONE to me....off a HUGE last second W.....beat up / tired / even sick as well
          * Cowboys (great season) ...but led by 2 rookies vs AR  .....clearly not MENTALLY ready to advance....handed GB the game           

SEA?....bad team (mostly) away.....beat up > gone as far as they could .....




4)         BOTTOM LINE 



ATL comes in TOO confident.....fully expecting their 'regular' offensive and defensive game will be enough to win here (rightfully so).....
 
       warning.....this one will require some deep thought .....
 
In EFFECT.....playing / coaching as the FAVORITE....while NE will play....and COACH as the DOG (more aggressive)

  *BUT...if Quinn out Belichicks......Belichick....and ( very creatively) finds a way to get pressure on Brady like moving Beasley inside......changes coverages etc....maybe super aggressive offensively as well....> lotta empty sets with 21 personnel (2 backs + TE).........I might like their chances

BUT.....I would think they play their game here.....and get their azz beat

MENTAL + EXPERIENCE EDGE
MUCH BETTER HC (this game)
BETTER QB (this game)
MUCH BETTER DEFENSE / offense close enough
NE matches ATL strengths

ONLY giving 3?....I'll take it


PLAY:     NE -3.....strong lean under (1H under maybe best)



PROP ideas....

I did many of these earlier....at 3 different books...so I'll just list the prop as I'm sure odds have changed

* L Blount over 14' carries and / or 56' yds rushing
      and -1' rush yds vs D Freeman not bad at -125 or so

* C Hogan longest reception over (opened 21' now higher)

* receptions by D Freeman over 3'
     *MR should throw to RB's a ton / Brady as well

* D Lewis -1' rushing yds vs T Coleman (like this one)
     *NE should use DL in their up-tempo stuff....TC might get yds receiving / not rushing

** 1st coaches challenge overturned at -110
     * BB 1-1....DQ 3-1 or so...no challenges bet cancelled

*JULIO?.....I wouldn't touch it....under is popular....watch out
     Sanu / Gabriel tough too....like Atlanta? > hit it....NE backers maybe avoid with strategy unknown (lean UNDER for me)
 
*longest compl by MR under 43' + MR more attempts than TB    more completions maybe as well
 
* Trey Flowers to get a sack / Beasley to be shut out

*D Jones (likely to cover RB's a bunch / WR in MOF) to get one pass defended at +155....also....he will be KEY to Atlanta success...so $5-10 for MVP at +9000 or so painless

*biggest lead Under 16'

.longest TD under 52'

BOL boys........................
 







     
                                              

What is SB virgin?

I got dizzy reading your "essay". Just post your winner next time please. Thanks for sharing anyway.

Great stuff bookie

you mentioned the NFC "easy path" but you failed to mention the CAKE WALK that the Pats had...an injured steelers team and houston...come on man! 

Nice write-up...enjoyed reading it. BOL today bookieA 

Atlanta will destroy New England today. Conservatively speaking, Atlanta -10.5.  Atlanta's Ryan can actually make deep field passes successfully, unlike the dink and dunk Brady. New England has no names on their team besides dink and dunk Brady. On paper stats for New England's defense means absolutely nothing when most of those stats any defense would've collected big on. I mean New England is playing alot of backup quarterbacks and poor offensive type teams. Atlanta has a pair of great runningbacks where Freeman can cut on a dime faster than any back I've seen. Coleman is a great compliment. Julio Jones, star wide receiver, cannot be defended on many of his routes.  Matt Ryan, MVP, just beat up on the hottest team in the NFL, Green Bay.  And the listless, aging , dink and dunk Brady got by beating a bad road team in Pittsburgh.   

Bookie Assassin turns his laser-like focus on the Pros. A Covers 1st?

Great stuff as always. Happy we're on the same side and total. Looking forward to <a few beers today, my brother. Think the coaching advantage alone is worth 3. then i get the better Defense even? Sign me up.

I got around 202 days.....with nothing to do.......

As long as Pats get up early.....force Atlanta to play from behind....limit big plays / keep their confidence level down....should be OK.......

There he  is.....................

Looks like our man Brent didn't stay retired long ha

WTF?.........there he is......................BOL man........

Strongest write up ive seen in a while, great read.. have NE +260 at 1k.  

 Can't argue your writing, BA.........but my heart won out over my mind & yours.........took Atl +3 & under.......1 unit each.


 GL today bro

FML!  Didn't know you dabble with the NFL. Kicking myself for not reading this pregame!!