Baltimore @ Cleveland (short write up/notes)

No time for a total write up on this one, but I jolted some game notes….

I am looking at the offenses in this game because both these defenses are legit, and formidable.  The real disparity is most likely to be found in the offenses.

Looking at the last 3 games—which I always find to be more telling than the season stats this late in the season.  Baltimore faced the #7, the #5, and the #14 ranked defenses in their last 3, and Cleveland faced the #7, the #4, and the #21 ranked (overall) defenses over their last 3 games…. Baltimore has faced slightly tougher D’s over the last 3—though it needs to be taken into account that SF was less than their best in that match up b/c they had just 96 hours from the end of their Sunday game until kick off in their Thanksgiving day game (travel, ect in the interim), so they were not at their best (hence I cashed Ravens tickets on that one).

Over the last 3 games:  Cleveland is scoring more pts per play (efficient) than Bmore, has a better 3^rd down conversion rate, has a slightly better plays-per-game (pretty even), McCoy is getting sacked more b/c he is throwing a lot more, McCoy has a better completion % than Flacco.  Flacco is 4/2 TD/INT, while McCoy is 3/2…. Last 3 QB Ratings ave  McCoy 85 and Flacco’s is 90.6…. but how much of that is b/c McCoy’s pass plays are more anticipated due to the higher % of passing plays?  

Facts: Balt is +4 in turnover ratio while Cleveland is -1… once again, is this due to the predictability of the Cleveland pass first strategy?  Cleveland is 0.3 fumbles lost per gm over the last 3 while Balt is 0.7….

Overall…. Baltimore is coming off of a tough fought game vs SF and should be licking some wounds here. The question is: Will Cleveland run Hillis more today, run the ball more, and balance their attack?  If they do… they stay with in the spread…. They can slow the Ravens running game down with their stellar run D, and if they balance their O they can rest their D moreso than what has been recently.  Doing this will force Flacco to win the game on his arm, and that usually does not bode well for the Ravens.  All the pressure is on the Ravens having to win to stay even (with the tie breaker vs Pitt), Cleveland is playing in the Dog pound and should be loose and easy…..

Cleveland could put a scare into Baltimore today if they just establish the running game, if not… Baltimore will be tee’ing off on McCoy all day and Cleveland gets beaten by double digits.  I am leaning towards a Balanced Cleveland attack, and an unexpectedly tight game.

Cleveland +7

Very few teams run on the Ravens. You can throw on them.

Linebackers dont support pass coverage that well and corner has always been a weak spot although Jimmy Smith healthy now will help.

Quote Originally Posted by poolman11:

A RUN GAME FROM CLEVELAND AGAINST BALTIMORES D WAS ASKING A BIT TO MUCH  I LIKE CLEVELAND ON THE RD IN A COUPLE WEEKS AT BALTY

Good luck,they toyed with them, a blown coverage and a prevent defense 4th down TD pass made this game look closer than it was,they'll get destroyed when they come here soon enough...