Why do you guys think MInn is the play? 75% of the public is on the Vikings. LIne opened at -5.5 and is now at 4.
VEGAS is begging you guys to take The Vikings. Why is this so difficult to understand? Games are NOT fixed. Plain and simple...."Vegas has a 70% idea on what team will cover a particular spread. Why would you bet with the public when Vegas is obviously trying to get you to take the Vikings? Do you think, "The House" doesn't know that +4 is a stupid LOW line for a shitty bears team??? My God.
Give me the Bears +4. Love betting WITH Vegas.
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
Why do you guys think MInn is the play? 75% of the public is on the Vikings. LIne opened at -5.5 and is now at 4.
VEGAS is begging you guys to take The Vikings. Why is this so difficult to understand? Games are NOT fixed. Plain and simple...."Vegas has a 70% idea on what team will cover a particular spread. Why would you bet with the public when Vegas is obviously trying to get you to take the Vikings? Do you think, "The House" doesn't know that +4 is a stupid LOW line for a shitty bears team??? My God.
JUST SAYING. IF YOU LIKE THE BEARS, I THINK YOU SHOULD WAIT TILL GAMETIME. BEARS +4 IS A BAD VALUE YOU G ET BECAUSE SHARP MONEY WILL BRING THE LINE FOR DA BEARS UP TO 5.5 or 6 I BELIEVE. WHY NOT JUST WAIT?????? UNLESS YOU HAVENT PLAYED IT YET. JUST POST THE PLAY FOR BEARS +4 EARLY TO GET MORE ATTENTION BOL WITH YOUR PLAY
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JUST SAYING. IF YOU LIKE THE BEARS, I THINK YOU SHOULD WAIT TILL GAMETIME. BEARS +4 IS A BAD VALUE YOU G ET BECAUSE SHARP MONEY WILL BRING THE LINE FOR DA BEARS UP TO 5.5 or 6 I BELIEVE. WHY NOT JUST WAIT?????? UNLESS YOU HAVENT PLAYED IT YET. JUST POST THE PLAY FOR BEARS +4 EARLY TO GET MORE ATTENTION BOL WITH YOUR PLAY
JUST SAYING. IF YOU LIKE THE BEARS, I THINK YOU SHOULD WAIT TILL GAMETIME. BEARS +4 IS A BAD VALUE YOU G ET BECAUSE SHARP MONEY WILL BRING THE LINE FOR DA BEARS UP TO 5.5 or 6 I BELIEVE. WHY NOT JUST WAIT?????? UNLESS YOU HAVENT PLAYED IT YET. JUST POST THE PLAY FOR BEARS +4 EARLY TO GET MORE ATTENTION BOL WITH YOUR PLAY
I agree with you. However, the line opened at 6......So, anything under 5.5 should hit. Now, if the line goes back to 6 or higher, i will not play it. I make my plays 10 minutes before kick. So, if its 5.5 or lower, Hammer the Bears
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Quote Originally Posted by SaiGonVN1982:
JUST SAYING. IF YOU LIKE THE BEARS, I THINK YOU SHOULD WAIT TILL GAMETIME. BEARS +4 IS A BAD VALUE YOU G ET BECAUSE SHARP MONEY WILL BRING THE LINE FOR DA BEARS UP TO 5.5 or 6 I BELIEVE. WHY NOT JUST WAIT?????? UNLESS YOU HAVENT PLAYED IT YET. JUST POST THE PLAY FOR BEARS +4 EARLY TO GET MORE ATTENTION BOL WITH YOUR PLAY
I agree with you. However, the line opened at 6......So, anything under 5.5 should hit. Now, if the line goes back to 6 or higher, i will not play it. I make my plays 10 minutes before kick. So, if its 5.5 or lower, Hammer the Bears
I DONT MEAN ANYTHING JUST SAYING AND WONDERed WHY DIDNT YOU WAIT FOR A BETTER LINE THAN BEARS +4. CUZ THE LINE FOR BEARS WOULDNT BE A FG OR 3.5 BY GAMETIME GOT IT NOW. SO WHAT YOU POSTED WAS A LEAN NOT A PLAY BEST OF LUCK THECHAD
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I DONT MEAN ANYTHING JUST SAYING AND WONDERed WHY DIDNT YOU WAIT FOR A BETTER LINE THAN BEARS +4. CUZ THE LINE FOR BEARS WOULDNT BE A FG OR 3.5 BY GAMETIME GOT IT NOW. SO WHAT YOU POSTED WAS A LEAN NOT A PLAY BEST OF LUCK THECHAD
I DONT MEAN ANYTHING JUST SAYING AND WONDERed WHY DIDNT YOU WAIT FOR A BETTER LINE THAN BEARS +4. CUZ THE LINE FOR BEARS WOULDNT BE A FG OR 3.5 BY GAMETIME GOT IT NOW. SO WHAT YOU POSTED WAS A LEAN NOT A PLAY BEST OF LUCK THECHAD
HA....I was trying to agree with you in a positive manner. Obviously, you want to get the best line but I see the bears covering, if not winning, easily...tonight. I like to let Vegas do the "hard research" and then I just follow Vegas(as long as the line is moving in a way that the Books want to TRAP me). Tonight is going to be a great example of a trap game. Bears will win and then this forum will blow up tomorrow on how the league is rigged and what not. But, Vegas just has a good read on tonight's game to trap the public with the research they have gathered. They feel The Bears will cover and that they can make money off the Vikings bettors. It will be fun to see if I'm right. Best of luck to you, as well.
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Quote Originally Posted by SaiGonVN1982:
I DONT MEAN ANYTHING JUST SAYING AND WONDERed WHY DIDNT YOU WAIT FOR A BETTER LINE THAN BEARS +4. CUZ THE LINE FOR BEARS WOULDNT BE A FG OR 3.5 BY GAMETIME GOT IT NOW. SO WHAT YOU POSTED WAS A LEAN NOT A PLAY BEST OF LUCK THECHAD
HA....I was trying to agree with you in a positive manner. Obviously, you want to get the best line but I see the bears covering, if not winning, easily...tonight. I like to let Vegas do the "hard research" and then I just follow Vegas(as long as the line is moving in a way that the Books want to TRAP me). Tonight is going to be a great example of a trap game. Bears will win and then this forum will blow up tomorrow on how the league is rigged and what not. But, Vegas just has a good read on tonight's game to trap the public with the research they have gathered. They feel The Bears will cover and that they can make money off the Vikings bettors. It will be fun to see if I'm right. Best of luck to you, as well.
The spread and movement will make a lot of people overthink this game.
I personally think Cutler is a washed, Fox is a washed, the team are not united thus the 1-6.
Vikings came off a bye, lost to Eagles, now facing a division FOE that they must beat. If anything, I think Bradford put together a big game and destroy the Bears 31-7.
Good luck.
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The spread and movement will make a lot of people overthink this game.
I personally think Cutler is a washed, Fox is a washed, the team are not united thus the 1-6.
Vikings came off a bye, lost to Eagles, now facing a division FOE that they must beat. If anything, I think Bradford put together a big game and destroy the Bears 31-7.
HA....I was trying to agree with you in a positive manner. Obviously, you want to get the best line but I see the bears covering, if not winning, easily...tonight. I like to let Vegas do the "hard research" and then I just follow Vegas(as long as the line is moving in a way that the Books want to TRAP me). Tonight is going to be a great example of a trap game. Bears will win and then this forum will blow up tomorrow on how the league is rigged and what not. But, Vegas just has a good read on tonight's game to trap the public with the research they have gathered. They feel The Bears will cover and that they can make money off the Vikings bettors. It will be fun to see if I'm right. Best of luck to you, as well.
I agree, broadly speaking, that when you see this kind of ticket count, and reverse line movement, it is a clear sign the book is effectively "betting" on CHI (and so are professional betters, who are pushing the line down).
I would just caution that making bets based on follng sharp money, fading consensus and following reverse line movement is a terrific strategy long-term. But that still just means it will cover more often than not in the long run, not that the Bears are a lock. New England was a public favorite yesterday, the line movement went the wrong way and they still covered
So, I agree. The play is Chi or pass tonight. But this is a strategy that works long-term, so it is still plausible the book takes a hit. They have a ton of teaser and parley liability, so they are certainly confident in the Bears tonight. But I am just trying to emphasize that this trend works long-term, and it doesn't always work. Otherwise, if Minny wins and covers, people will say your understanding of this was wrong. Chicago is the right play. If it loses, you would still feel confident that when you bet based on reverse line/movement trends, it will win more than it loses.
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Quote Originally Posted by Thechad10:
HA....I was trying to agree with you in a positive manner. Obviously, you want to get the best line but I see the bears covering, if not winning, easily...tonight. I like to let Vegas do the "hard research" and then I just follow Vegas(as long as the line is moving in a way that the Books want to TRAP me). Tonight is going to be a great example of a trap game. Bears will win and then this forum will blow up tomorrow on how the league is rigged and what not. But, Vegas just has a good read on tonight's game to trap the public with the research they have gathered. They feel The Bears will cover and that they can make money off the Vikings bettors. It will be fun to see if I'm right. Best of luck to you, as well.
I agree, broadly speaking, that when you see this kind of ticket count, and reverse line movement, it is a clear sign the book is effectively "betting" on CHI (and so are professional betters, who are pushing the line down).
I would just caution that making bets based on follng sharp money, fading consensus and following reverse line movement is a terrific strategy long-term. But that still just means it will cover more often than not in the long run, not that the Bears are a lock. New England was a public favorite yesterday, the line movement went the wrong way and they still covered
So, I agree. The play is Chi or pass tonight. But this is a strategy that works long-term, so it is still plausible the book takes a hit. They have a ton of teaser and parley liability, so they are certainly confident in the Bears tonight. But I am just trying to emphasize that this trend works long-term, and it doesn't always work. Otherwise, if Minny wins and covers, people will say your understanding of this was wrong. Chicago is the right play. If it loses, you would still feel confident that when you bet based on reverse line/movement trends, it will win more than it loses.
I agree with your post Chad. Doesn't always work out but 7 out of 10 times Vegas is on the correct side. I think with the way the line is you either take the Bears or stay away. GL either way
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I agree with your post Chad. Doesn't always work out but 7 out of 10 times Vegas is on the correct side. I think with the way the line is you either take the Bears or stay away. GL either way
I agree with your post Chad. Doesn't always work out but 7 out of 10 times Vegas is on the correct side. I think with the way the line is you either take the Bears or stay away. GL either way
Hey...70% is a nice way to make money in this industry. My problem is keeping the UNITS the same amount. I might go 3 for 3 betting 1 unit per game and then get GREEDY and bet 3 units on the 4th game and lose.
Typically, if you have discipline and Money Management....you should be ahead of the game at the end if the season betting this way.
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Quote Originally Posted by mjc21:
I agree with your post Chad. Doesn't always work out but 7 out of 10 times Vegas is on the correct side. I think with the way the line is you either take the Bears or stay away. GL either way
Hey...70% is a nice way to make money in this industry. My problem is keeping the UNITS the same amount. I might go 3 for 3 betting 1 unit per game and then get GREEDY and bet 3 units on the 4th game and lose.
Typically, if you have discipline and Money Management....you should be ahead of the game at the end if the season betting this way.
YES....but the line moved the right way....look up, "Reverse line movements", my friend.
The Dallas line opened at 4.5 and the public bet the line to 5.5. Now, had the public bet the line from 4. 5 to 4 or lower, then I would have taken the Eagles. There was no trap in the Dallas game. Line moved the right way, make sense?
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Quote Originally Posted by Letwinsome:
Was Dallas a public team last night?
YES....but the line moved the right way....look up, "Reverse line movements", my friend.
The Dallas line opened at 4.5 and the public bet the line to 5.5. Now, had the public bet the line from 4. 5 to 4 or lower, then I would have taken the Eagles. There was no trap in the Dallas game. Line moved the right way, make sense?
A lot of good commentary in this thread. So many people get wrapped up in these false ideas of certainty, and black and white situations...it's just more easy to process I guess. But the fact is it's such a world of grey area.
It's like if a single person tried to sue a corporation...they just bury you with all kinds of things because the corporation has no bounds on time or money in comparison to the single person and you would waste your whole life away trying to fight back. Somewhat similar principle with Vegas...it's like they have an infinite supply of money so they can afford to take hits sometimes but still keep playing the percentages with extreme discipline in the long-run.
They DON'T fix games so that they NEVER lose, but like some have said, I believe they have such an extensive database of info (more so than any single bettor) that they do take certain positions on games where they believe to have an advantage. It doesn't mean they win every single time they do this but again, if it works 6 times out of 10 they can more than afford to take the hit the other 4.
All that said I'm on Vikings ML because I got a ridiculous line at -155 and thought it was good value, no messing around with points. It's since gone to -208 where I can see.
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A lot of good commentary in this thread. So many people get wrapped up in these false ideas of certainty, and black and white situations...it's just more easy to process I guess. But the fact is it's such a world of grey area.
It's like if a single person tried to sue a corporation...they just bury you with all kinds of things because the corporation has no bounds on time or money in comparison to the single person and you would waste your whole life away trying to fight back. Somewhat similar principle with Vegas...it's like they have an infinite supply of money so they can afford to take hits sometimes but still keep playing the percentages with extreme discipline in the long-run.
They DON'T fix games so that they NEVER lose, but like some have said, I believe they have such an extensive database of info (more so than any single bettor) that they do take certain positions on games where they believe to have an advantage. It doesn't mean they win every single time they do this but again, if it works 6 times out of 10 they can more than afford to take the hit the other 4.
All that said I'm on Vikings ML because I got a ridiculous line at -155 and thought it was good value, no messing around with points. It's since gone to -208 where I can see.
I just don't think smart money is on tonight's game. Of course the winning side after the fact can say "see it was easy..." However, there are too many indicators pulling in both directions. Are we forgetting The QB's tonight are Sam Bradford and Jay Cutler...I'm out
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I just don't think smart money is on tonight's game. Of course the winning side after the fact can say "see it was easy..." However, there are too many indicators pulling in both directions. Are we forgetting The QB's tonight are Sam Bradford and Jay Cutler...I'm out
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JUST SAYING. IF YOU LIKE THE BEARS, I THINK YOU SHOULD WAIT TILL GAMETIME. BEARS +4 IS A BAD VALUE YOU G ET BECAUSE SHARP MONEY WILL BRING THE LINE FOR DA BEARS UP TO 5.5 or 6 I BELIEVE. 
BOL WITH YOUR PLAY 
BEST OF LUCK THECHAD 
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