Been waiting for this moment on Bovada- My SB Pick

I've been waiting for Bovada to have -4.5 for the Pats. 

Going LARGE on buying the half point to -4 (-120) for the Pats. 

PATS Money Line at -175 

Also, took Pats +105 -3 halftime line

Prop Bets:

Pats Over 13.5 half time. 

Pats over 27 for the game. 

Pats/Pats - They need to be up at the half and for the game.

Brady Over 285.5 Yards

Brady Over 2 Touchdowns

 Brady -.5 more touchdowns than Foles

Brady -25.5 more passing yards than Foles

Brady under 2.5 rushing yards

Foles under 1.5 rushing yards

My cliff notes reasoning: 

Gronk is going to be available for the super bowl. 

Brandon Cooks is a huge upgrade to the receiving corps compared to last year's SB. 

Danny Amendola is the perfect Edelman replacement, especially in big games where he excels. He's always been an amazing receiver, he could just never stay on the field. His catch rate increases significantly in big games and he already has a couple super bowl touchdowns. 

Blount mouthing off. Anytime a player on the team does this I always take this as a bad sign. 

Please note, I would be betting on the Eagles with a healthy Caron Wentz, but even with the Eagles having a better defense I just don't see Foles being able to keep up with the Patriots in this one. Looking at the prop bets Vegas already expects the Eagles to turn the ball over more frequently even with a better Eagles defense. I think a lot of it will come down to stopping Ajayi. If the Pats can stop Ajayi from having one of his special games he's been known to have with the Dolphins, then I think Wentz will have difficulty moving the ball. The Super Bowl is a different beast, and I definitely think experience is going to play a major factor here.

Better offense than last year, more experience, better running game, healthier team is all an advantage to the PATS. The fact that they almost lost to the Jags does not deter me. Pats tend to not make the same mistake twice, and they overlooked the Jags in a way. I actually think the fact that they almost lost to the Jags is going to help them focus for the Super Bowl. 

TL:DR - My prediction is Pats win this game by double digits. 

Good luck everybody! 

Good luck on your pick! I don't have a side yet but your reasoning is solid. Just an FYI, the math on buying points is never favorable. At -120, you must land on the 4 in excess of 1 out of 5  times to make a realized profit on buying the .5. If the number falls on the 4 exactly 20% of the time you break even. Both historical evidence and common logic dictate buying points is a bad proposition. 

I prefer, at books where they will allow it, to sell the points back to the book. An example of this is the o/u at 5dimes which is currently 48.5 -110 either way. 5dimes will allow you to go over 49 at -100, which imo is a better proposition. The books LOVE it when you buy points so avoid it like the plague.

bovada is a square book and reportedly don't accept sharps.  how do you bet there.  are u a square?

well i can't say if you're a square or not, but from what i understand bovada doesn't think you're a sharp or you wouldn't be there.  bovada doesn't let sharps play at bovada.

thery're not the only ones.  in vegas you can find some books are stingier than others.  Even with totally square wagers that I have lost, they have refused to take it or looked at me like I was doing something bad.  When I go to Treasure Island for example, if I put down $200 it has to get approved and the guys look like I'm there to rob a bank or something.  If I go to the big boys, for example CG, they take bets.  MGM is not bad, Caesars/Boyd is not bad.  William Hill is another stingy book.

Is what it is.

Not sure there's a definite sharp/square divide this game and even if there was, the public makes the line.  Given we're hearing 50/50, with a lot of Eagles ML wagers, not a bad line so far.  You have to think some huge Pats ML wagers are coming, but who knows we'll see.

south point was another.  figured i'd trek over there just for the heck of it and the guys looked like i was there to do some major damage by actually wagering on the game.  And the game lost handily. lol

you can just feel the scum or the bean counters behind the counter sometimes

what a joke a lot of these books are.  i respect the ones that actually let the players wager.  the rest of 'em should go out of biz.

as for bovada why would you wager there

why would you wager at a place you know that the only people they like are people that lose money

scumbags, lots of 'em in this biz

westgate used to be good. used to love watching the game there, now they're tighter than a virgin's *ss.  bean counters

bottom line cg tech is great, and can't go wrong with caesars/boyd or mgm.  those are a ton of books and they are fair and straight up and don't try to screw u

wondering if anyone else thinks different-i'm sure they do

online pinnacle is the best, but you can't be in the us.  if you are, can't go wrong with 5dimes or bookmaker. 

stay away from sports interaction or betus or garbage scumbag books like those

just look at the million $ guy on philly

mgm took a ton, so did caesers cg william hill and south point

those are signs of good books, ones that take action