Buffalo Bills (-3) @ Cincinnati Bengals

Question

I have heard a few analysts and a number of my Covers peers voice some level of surprise

at the fact Buffalo is road chalk in Cincinnati this weekend.

I

I don't pretend to be an amazing handicapper so take this post for what its worth. ( I Have managed to stay on the plus side of things so far this football season..)

I am a Cincinnati native and a long time sufferer from the SICKNESS. From one gambler to another, please do not bet on the Bengals this weekend.

1.) Benson's status is doubtful

2. If Cincy cannot consistently run the ball with success on first down and demonstrate their ability to run the ball on 3rd and short they will not cover this spread. *When forced into 3rd down passing situations, which has been with regularity, Andy Dalton and the Cincinnati offense have been extremely unsuccessfull.

3. Because the Buffalo secondary just successfully contained and forced 4 turnovers against the probably the best passing offense in the NFL.

4.) Every game means something in the NFL. If your expecting a let down from Fitzpatrick and this Bill's team after a big win I think you will be disappointed on Sunday. This team has been mired in mediocrity for a decade plus.

5. While I have great respect for the Cincinnati Defense, their strength is the front 7. They rush the passer better than they have since I can remember, and they play the run tough. They struggle in space on the outside, and their safety play is suspect. Mauluga is shaken up. Buffalo's scheme is designed to exploit this weakeness in my opinion.

My big play this weekend is Buffalo -2.5 (-120)

Good Luck to everyone

amiller64 · Answer

I have heard a few analysts and a number of my Covers peers voice some level of surprise

at the fact Buffalo is road chalk in Cincinnati this weekend.

I

I don't pretend to be an amazing handicapper so take this post for what its worth. ( I Have managed to stay on the plus side of things so far this football season..)

I am a Cincinnati native and a long time sufferer from the SICKNESS. From one gambler to another, please do not bet on the Bengals this weekend.

1.) Benson's status is doubtful

2. If Cincy cannot consistently run the ball with success on first down and demonstrate their ability to run the ball on 3rd and short they will not cover this spread. *When forced into 3rd down passing situations, which has been with regularity, Andy Dalton and the Cincinnati offense have been extremely unsuccessfull.

3. Because the Buffalo secondary just successfully contained and forced 4 turnovers against the probably the best passing offense in the NFL.

4.) Every game means something in the NFL. If your expecting a let down from Fitzpatrick and this Bill's team after a big win I think you will be disappointed on Sunday. This team has been mired in mediocrity for a decade plus.

5. While I have great respect for the Cincinnati Defense, their strength is the front 7. They rush the passer better than they have since I can remember, and they play the run tough. They struggle in space on the outside, and their safety play is suspect. Mauluga is shaken up. Buffalo's scheme is designed to exploit this weakeness in my opinion.

My big play this weekend is Buffalo -2.5 (-120)

Good Luck to everyone

Dawnmarie · Answer

yeah ya got a rookie QB in cincy so bills will be a lil flat in 1st half after that HUGE win over rival patriots for 1 st time in like 16 games and of course to over come a 21 point deficit to win as DOG is huge edge

Cincy aint got the Offensive fire power or strong defense to stop the bills

thats a 3 star bet for me Bills will rooll in 2nd half !

mrbelvidere2010 · Answer

Bills

amiller64 · Answer

I would also like to point out:Buffalo beat cincinnati late in the season last year..in cincinnati. Buffalo was a 4 point dog to the Carson Palmer led Bengals. Buffalo won the game by 18, and it wasnt even that close.Cincy&#x27;s passing game has gotten worse since then, and they stand no chance if this game is played in the twenties. Theyre only hope is to shut down a Buffalo offense that is clicking on all cylinders. Cincy lost all pro-caliber corner Jonaathon Joseph in the off season so look for their secondary to get a rude awakening this weekend. Cincy&#x27;s defense has looked good against the likes of Cleveland Denver, and San Francisco... I think they falter down the stretch against this balanced attack, maybe even sooner. (as noted by my esteemed collegue above) BTW bengals most likely will be short one their better pass rushers with Robert Gathers listed as questionable. Jump on Buffalo before the line moves gentlemen, and good luck with all your plays.Buffalo wins 27-13

E-Muffin · Answer

Look, I&#x27;m not here to say you are wrong because this bet may very well hit, but I am a huge Bengal fan and disagree with a few things. &#xD;&#xA;First, emotion in football is HUGE and Buffalo just played in probably the most emotional games most of those guys have ever played in. The Bengals however came out somewhat flat against the 49ers and  dealt with the Simpson distraction. I fully expect more emotion and a more prepared team ready to play Sunday.&#xD;&#xA;I also disagree with Geathers being out. He is not much of a pass rusher at all and is just ok. Not much of a loss at all to be honest. Benson could be a tough loss, but at least with Scott they have a guy that is way more explosive and more elusive. Not as powerful obviously, but in a game that might be wide open he might be a better option anyway.&#xD;&#xA;Personally, I&#x27;m not touching this game, but if you go Buffalo I just wanted to give my perspective as a Bengal fan.

amiller64 · Answer

Gathers has become their 3rd pass rusher. I agree that he is no Carlos Dunlop. But in the modern NFL if feel like D-line depth can be a big factor. I have overlooked the value of Scott as a more elusive option, they can also do more in the passing game with him. But as far as a credible 3rd down running threat and pass protection I think the loss is considerable.

The letdown factor obviously looms large in this game for buffalo, but if they find themselves down to the Bengals I think you'll be surprised how quickly 'emotion' will return to the Bill's effort.

For me Cincy doesnt have the offensive firepower to take advantage of a let down. I expect a close first half and the Bill's to out-execute the Bungals down the stretch.

Thanks for your input E-Muffin, good luck with all your bets.

VegasVandal · Answer

Amiller,Not sure if I;ve ever read your posts before but I&#x27;d like to say they seem very well thought out and elaborate; much like an ESPN analyst. I appreciate the insight on the Bills. My first reaction and my gut told me to take the Bengals. But everything in my mind is telling me to take the Bills. The lack of offensive production from the Bengals tell me they have about a 30% chance to win this game at most. And this is if they are able to contain the running attack of the Bills effectively, which could be a huge X factor. Your insight tells me Bills is the correct play

amiller64 · Answer

Thanks you for your kind words VegasVandal And good luck with all you plays this week.

Jmt908 · Answer

its easy to say there will be a let down here after such a gigantic win over the pats, but why not assume that that game gave them a huge confidence boost? and it&#x27;s not like bills can&#x27;t recover from a slow start as they have shown the past 2 weeks, especially from an inept offense of the bengals, on a side note i heard the bengals were trying out portis today

E-Muffin · Answer

[Quote: Originally Posted by amiller64] Gathers has become their 3rd pass rusher. I agree that he is no Carlos Dunlop. But in the modern NFL if feel like D-line depth can be a big factor. I have overlooked the value of Scott as a more elusive option, they can also do more in the passing game with him. But as far as a credible 3rd down running threat and pass protection I think the loss is considerable.

The letdown factor obviously looms large in this game for buffalo, but if they find themselves down to the Bengals I think you'll be surprised how quickly 'emotion' will return to the Bill's effort.

For me Cincy doesnt have the offensive firepower to take advantage of a let down. I expect a close first half and the Bill's to out-execute the Bungals down the stretch.

Thanks for your input E-Muffin, good luck with all your bets.

[/Quote

When all is said and done I might be on the Bills as well, just saying I wouldn't unload on it in my opinion because this game has the ultimate let down written all over it.....a la Baltimore week 2 in Tennessee. These trap games rear their ugly head several times a year and think about this.....if only a couple plays go other ways, the Bengals could very easily be 3-0 and Buffalo 1-2. It's just a matter of which way those plays go this week. Good luck to all and nice write-up.

HDTP · Answer

Interesting point Dawnmarie. Im going over this game right now and I actually have the Bills @ -4 favs but I also have to take in account the MTi Sports System that says: &#x27;The league is 0-14 ATS(-10.0 ppg) since 1989 as a favorite when they are off a win as a home dog over a divisional opponent in which they were trailing after the third quarter&#x27;This is what throws me off of this play. Plus the lack of line movement on the -3 shows that sharps are possibly waiting for the public to buy this line and move it up a 1/2 - 1pt before slamming the Bengals as a dog.

Just_Bleed · Answer

You think Vegas is giving money away for free? The line is 3 for a reason. Same scenario as Balt week 2 after beating Pitt. If Cincci does cover it will be a huge win for Vegas no doubt though

skyclassic · Answer

it will be 24-0 for the bengals @half... then something awakens... ..4-0

MoneyShot · Answer

[Quote: Originally Posted by amiller64] &#xD;&#xA;&#xD;&#xA;&#xD;&#xA;&#xD;&#xA;&#xD;&#xA;&#xD;&#xA;&#xD;&#xA;I have heard a few analysts and a number of my Covers peers voice some level of surprise &#xD;&#xA;at the fact Buffalo is road chalk in Cincinnati this weekend.&#xD;&#xA;I&#xD;&#xA;I don&#x27;t pretend to be an amazing handicapper so take this post for what its worth. ( I Have managed to stay on the plus side of things so far this football season..)&#xD;&#xA;&#xD;&#xA; I am a Cincinnati native and a long time sufferer from the SICKNESS. From one gambler to another, please do not bet on the Bengals this weekend. &#xD;&#xA;&#xD;&#xA;1.) Benson&#x27;s status is doubtful&#xD;&#xA;&#xD;&#xA;2. If Cincy cannot consistently run the ball with success on first down and demonstrate their ability to run the ball on 3rd and short they will not cover this spread. *When forced into 3rd down passing situations, which has been with regularity, Andy Dalton and the Cincinnati offense have been extremely unsuccessfull. &#xD;&#xA;&#xD;&#xA;3. Because the Buffalo secondary just successfully contained and forced 4 turnovers against the probably the best passing offense in the NFL.&#xD;&#xA;&#xD;&#xA;4.) Every game means something in the NFL. If your expecting a let down from Fitzpatrick and this Bill&#x27;s team after a big win I think you will be disappointed on Sunday. This team has been mired in mediocrity for a decade plus.&#xD;&#xA;&#xD;&#xA;5. While I have great respect for the Cincinnati Defense, their strength is the front 7. They rush the passer better than they have since I can remember, and they play the run tough. They struggle in space on the outside, and their safety play is suspect. Mauluga is shaken up. Buffalo&#x27;s scheme is designed to exploit this weakeness in my opinion.&#xD;&#xA;&#xD;&#xA;My big play this weekend is Buffalo -2.5 (-120)&#xD;&#xA;&#xD;&#xA;Good Luck to everyone&#xD;&#xA;&#xD;&#xA;&#xD;&#xA;&#xD;&#xA;[/Quote]&#xD;&#xA;yes, every game in the nfl means something BUT you are nuts if you dont believe that there are letdowns in the nfl...

MoneyShot · Answer

im not saying that the bills wont cover, im just saying that even though every game is important especially at this stage (week 4) there are many teams that play an amazing game against a div rival then come flat the next game and put up a stinker, happens in all major sports...

CurtisBlow304 · Answer

I know a lot about both teams, Bills are clearly better team. But they're going on the road after a huge emotional comeback win against a very good Pats team. The Bills are a sucker bet this week. That's why the line is only -3. Vegas knows what they are doing...they want everyone to take the Bills...PLAY BENGALS +3.5

amiller64 · Answer

I have never contended that &#x27;Let downs" do not happen.I am merely hypothesizing that a team that has been down for a long time ( like the Bills the last 10&#x2B; years) are less likely to suffer an emotional or mental/preparation let down. The prime example of the let down situation cited has been Baltimore&#x27;s game week 2 against the titans. The Titan&#x27;s have veteran quarterback that manages a game much better than Andy Dalton can hope to at this point in his career. The Cincinnati home field advantage leaves alot to be desired.. in my opinion. They are 1-2 and looked like a high school offense against S.F. in their home opener last week.  Whereas Baltimore&#x27;s letdown was the home opener for Tennessee.I am not saying that this is not a letdown situation... I just believe Buffalo will get back to business because they have to know N.E. isnt going anywhere in that divisional race,I am well aware that this is a square pick. But everyone know that not every square pick is a loser.I do not bet money against my intuition and reasoning because of some paranoia that the line is so fishy that Vegas must be trying to trick me, Maybe this is a flawed strategy.Buffalo is the better team, with a better quarterback, and a better coaching staff. Good luck with what you decide, and thanks for all the input.

GodFather07 · Answer

Cincy hasn&#x27;t beaten Buffalo since the &#x27;88 playoffs I believe, the Bills are coming out of a huge win....sounds too easy and thats what scares me.

topperchris · Answer

I agree it does look to easy to take Bills..I thought they would be giving 7...If it looks to easy it probelly is....no play for me..

pacers792 · Answer

dont complicate FOOTBALL... its obvious who is the better team. on both sides of the ball BUFFALO is just better. forget all the superficial shit for once and actually know how to gamble. History is always valuable thats about as superficial as it gets... but given that, Buffalo is going to Win because they are better, instead of saying the bills are going to have an emotional letdown cause they just beat the patriots cant you easily say the bills are going to wipe the floor with them with their new found confidence ? Bills -3 Strong sharp play.

Qncyk1 · Answer

nice write-up, ts.&#xD;&#xA;when talking about letdowns, what about the raiders win over the jets?&#xD;&#xA;and now the pats coming in off a loss(brady is awesome after a loss and multiple picks).&#xD;&#xA;take away the uncharacteristic four picks by brady and the pats win by 20.&#xD;&#xA;why were the jets favored by 4 over the raiders and now the pats are favored the same?

badlands · Answer

&#xD;&#xA;this genious must be living in a mansion &#xD;&#xA;just take the better team

Jay4Prez · Answer

Buffalo is a fresh due down this week, moving their starting power number up 5 numbers since week 1, betting against these teams in a due down situation are 80% ATS.  I like Cincy.  gl

amiller64 · Answer

Please explain what a &#x27;due down&#x27; situation is...? Does this mean they have won 3 in a row and are due for a let down? Can you please explain this system more elaborately Jay4Prez?Thanks and GL

pacers792 · Answer

lol im not living in a mansion. but you must be doing well betting on the inferior teams. ill wager what ever you want against you that the Bills will beat cincy... what upside has the bengals shown ? they are horrible offensively.. the bengals are a good defensive team , but the bills offense is just to much for the bengals ... the bengals lost to San fransico and Denver.. low offense teams. i just dont see the bengals winning

Buffalo Bills (-3) @ Cincinnati Bengals

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