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Buffalo Bills (-3) @ Cincinnati Bengals

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Posted: #26
just capped the game....by my numbers, BUF -3 is a STRONG play over CIN

good thread amiller



GLTA
 
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Posted: #27

I already played Cinci but wish you luck.  Enjoyed the thread

 
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Posted: #28
I don't think it's a "letdown" as much as they won't be able to "get up" to play Cincinnati as they did New England.

Baltimore killed Pitt in week 1 and was uninterested in Tennessee in week 2. This always happens when team play their biggest rivals.
 
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Posted: #29
Fitz is going to be focused to play the Bengals.  I like David Nelson "over" on receptions if it is 4.5 or less.
 
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Posted: #30
The whole theory of "let down" spot is bullshit!  Bills will continue to play each game like if it was New England.  Don't over analyze and play the better team.  It's only 3 points for goodness sake! 

See you Bills backers at the bank!  
 
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Posted: #31
buffalo had beat cincy 10 times in a row and remember last year? cincy was up 31-10 at halftime and the bills came back and won by 10!!!  this years team is much better -3 is a steal boys bank your house on it bills HUGE 
 
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Posted: #32
There is no way not put money on Bills this week..GL
 
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Posted: #33
THIS IS A NO BRAINER! I THINK THE WORLD IS BLIND FOR NOT GOING CRAZY ON THIS SPREAD!!! BET YOUR HOUSE ON THIS ONE! OMG..PICK OF THE DECADE!!
 
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Posted: #34
Quote Originally Posted by amiller64:

Please explain what a 'due down' situation is...? Does this mean they have won 3 in a row and are due for a let down? Can you please explain this system more elaborately Jay4Prez?

Thanks and GL

Due down/due up is means the team has moved their starting season power number up atleast 4 or 5 numbers or down, to do this you figure in a number system based on covering or not covering spreads, moving only teams that beat the spread by a larger amount 4.5 points or more or lost the spread by the same 4.5 or more.  In this case Buffalo moved their starting power number up 3 points after beating KC wk1, did not move in wk 2 as they pushed the spread and moved their power number up two more points last week vs NE, they now are 5 points above their starting power number, which I show is a due down, im not saying since they won 3 straight they are due to lose, their is some trends I follow that supports the due down, I also show betting against these teams in this situation (as Buffalo is in) is 80% ATS.  My trend shows you would have a 20% chance of winning this bet on Buff.  Just sharing my trends.  My trends have been wrong before.  gl

 
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Posted: #35
Buffalo Soldier 
 
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Posted: #36
Thanks Jay4Prez... Who else is due down this week?

I imagine the Philly Eagles are due up?

Thanks for your insights and your trend.

Good Luck.
 
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Posted: #37

Bills are a strong play.

The majority of posts I read all seem to hate on the Bills. "The Bills have been crappy for years, they just beat the Patriots, therefore they should lose to the Bengals!" Great logic. Why doesn't someone give me a reason to pick Cincy, rather than reasons not to pick the Bills?

 
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Posted: #38
Quote Originally Posted by amiller64:

Thanks Jay4Prez... Who else is due down this week?

I imagine the Philly Eagles are due up?

Thanks for your insights and your trend.

Good Luck.

StL is a due up, they are now 6 points below their starting power number after theier blow out lose last week.  Teams on a due up of 6 points below starting power number are only 54% ATS, not as impressive trend as the teams off starting numbers at 4 and 5 for some reason?  Those are the only two due ups/downs this week. Last weeks due ups were KC, Seatle, Indy, (3-0) due downs last week were Hou, Det -3.5 (2-0). 

Phily started the season in my power numbers as a 26.5, they moved up two points in week 1 covering easily over Stl, moved down 1 after losing to Atl, and moved down the (max) of 3 last week vs NYG, so they are at 24.5 currently, only two below their starting number of 26.5.  Good Luck on your plays amiller64.

 
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Posted: #39
ANY1 WHO BET ON CINCY THIS WEEK SHOULD DEACTIVATE THERE WAGERLINE ACCOUNT!!
 
 
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Posted: #40
Buffalo is very well coached. Chan Gailey always has the team prepared. He keeps stressing that they need to handle prosperity. Cincy does not have the offensive firepower to keep up with them.

Don't sleep on Buffalo's defense. They are not a bad defensive team. The Raiders and Patriots scored a lot of points but they are two very good offensive teams. People seem to think the Jets are a stellar defense and the sliver and black drummed them. Buffalo dominated a meek and week Chiefs team and Cincinnati is not that much better. Throw in the fact that this is Fitz's former team and our guys will run through a brick wall for him just adds fuel to their fire. The emotional let down is next week, not this week in Cincinnati. 

Bills -3 to the bank
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