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******Buffalo @ Oakland ******

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Posted: #26
Just take minny +3 Thursday and then roll it to buffalo +3.5 and then roll it to Carolina +6.5 and then jets +1.5. 


If course I would do money line also for fun.
 
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Posted: #27
Quote Originally Posted by bpickin:

Just take minny +3 Thursday and then roll it to buffalo +3.5 and then roll it to Carolina +6.5 and then jets +1.5. 


If course I would do money line also for fun.

I'll play devils advocate here for fun because you obviously like robber bad teams.

 Dallas is the #1 team in the NFL playing against the worst offense in the NFL on prime time. Zeke on turf hmmm will go off.  Dallas will run over minny in this game. 

The Raiders are the top team in the NFL playing at home. Their offense can score at will and they are scorching hot ATS. 

Panthers on the road 2-9 ATS in last 9 road games now playing in seattle one of the best if not the best home field advantages in the NFL with revenge from a playoff loss last year.

Aaaaah the Jets. Really? Jets just had their Super Bowl. Sunday was the time to bet them. Now you have Luck coming to town against Fitzmagic.  Colts roll in this one. 
 
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Posted: #28
Quote Originally Posted by bpickin:

The only time Oakland covered at home this year was when they played in Mexico and that doesn't not count as a home game. Aside from that, they haven't covered yet... why would they start now????  they have either lost SU or not covered ats at home EVERY SINGLE TIME THIS YEAR. Maybe buffalo ml is reaching, but did you ever think that maybe there is a reason there is no hook this week? The line is 3 flat. I know for sure I will be buying the hook on the point spread. Nothing wrong with playing money line tho. Let's not forget they have a monster divison game next Thursday... 

OAKLAND HAS NOT COVERED A SPREAD AT HOME! 

So much for your expert analysis, The Raiders beat the Broncos as 2 points home faves a few weeks ago but whatever suits your argument i guess.
 
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Posted: #29
That game opened as a pick. I only go by opening #s... not to mention my line closed at a pick as well.

Dallas is gonna lose tomorrow. As far as the other games I like them ats. I'm not gonna like tho the Oakland game has me scratching my head, but I'm gonna take history on my side and the hook like I said before. Good luck to you
 
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Posted: #30
Since the pickem game is questionable, then maybe I should have said LINES 3.5 or more...
 
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Posted: #31
The jets pick is only about fitz playing for his job and the team will back him up. I don't like betting against Andrew luck, but the line is a pick which is very weird to me. Jets are the worst team in the land and should be deflated after that loss, but...
 
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Posted: #32
Quote Originally Posted by bpickin:

The jets pick is only about fitz playing for his job and the team will back him up. I don't like betting against Andrew luck, but the line is a pick which is very weird to me. Jets are the worst team in the land and should be deflated after that loss, but...

Bet whatever you want I'm just trying to help you because you're still on tilt. I get taking dogs trust me I bet a ton of dogs but don't be contrarian just to do it. 
 
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Posted: #33
Lol. Seriously tho after last weekend how could anyone be on tilt? 3 out of money line dogs and you know I was on them all including parlays. Come on now.  Dallas loses tomorrow. As far as everything else I really have no idea. The lines this week seem really odd and I don't say that much... 
 
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Posted: #34
Quote Originally Posted by SwishSwish1234:


So much for your expert analysis, The Raiders beat the Broncos as 2 points home faves a few weeks ago but whatever suits your argument i guess.


Look on scoresandodds.com. That is what I do by. Line opened and closed at a pick so therefore they weren't a home fave and it doesn't count...  Oakland has not covered as a favorite at home since doomsday. THE END
 
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Posted: #35
Quote Originally Posted by CajunWF:



There is definitely such a stat, and Carr DOES NOT lead in that category.  Stafford does. Thanks for coming out though

OK I did not word that correctly. But if you are using my wording, than Stafford does not lead in that Category ALL-TIME. 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/leaders/comebacks_active.htm

However, Carr does hold that record in the span since the start of the 2015 season. Thanks for the correction though.

"Carr has now thrown 13 game-tying or go-ahead touchdown passes in the fourth quarter or overtime since the start of the 2015 season, according to ESPN Stats & Info. No other quarterback has thrown more than seven during that span."


 
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Posted: #36
Quote Originally Posted by love2smash:


OK I did not word that correctly. But if you are using my wording, than Stafford does not lead in that Category ALL-TIME. 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/leaders/comebacks_active.htm

However, Carr does hold that record in the span since the start of the 2015 season. Thanks for the correction though.

"Carr has now thrown 13 game-tying or go-ahead touchdown passes in the fourth quarter or overtime since the start of the 2015 season, according to ESPN Stats & Info. No other quarterback has thrown more than seven during that span."

https://oak.247sports.com/Bolt/Derek-Carr-sets-Raiders-record-for-game-winning-drives-49350294


 
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Posted: #37
Raiders play well because of their o-line, least sacks allowed in NFL. They are mauling teams up front, really doubt the lineman are looking ahead.

Can you list 1 impressive win by the Bills? The only team with a winning record they've beaten was a Brady-less Pats team. Don't think they have the firepower to outscore Oakland at home, this play feels too cute.
 
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Posted: #38
It's a Rex Ryan Super Bowl, Raiders have their divisional revenge, first-place TNF game on deck. 
 
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Posted: #39
Def a look ahead spot for Oakland.short week and revenge on their mind.buff+3 is a safer bet but buff ml is def on the radar only thing worries me is this game could be a push like game vs car....but if you like buff ml,you have to love kc ml vs atl cause they can't afford to lose two straight.
 
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Posted: #40
Quote Originally Posted by Maverickmax:


I'm not doubting the raiders. Their offence is the real deal. Having said that, it's a marathon not a sprint.  The Raiders are looking at the bigger picture which is beating the Chiefs the following Thhursday.  

I'm not saying this is a guarantee, it's an angle I like to use.  

This angle is good, but unfortunately this angle does not apply to 2016 Raiders. I don't want to sound like a broken record, but in short this team does not look ahead. They respect every single team and the QB gives 110% effort and everybody follows suit. I know this because I watch all of the press videos pre and post game and everything in between.

I will be making a play on this game and that is OAK ML. Its been money 9 times this year.

I think BUF +3 is a reverse trap. Cappers will look at raw numbers and think Raiders dont cover well at home, Carr has a broken pinky and will have an off day, BUF is in a must win, etc, etc.

The way this team is operating, all look ahead angles do not apply. Carr's is a tough MF and a broken pinky will not bring him down. You could see the fear in Panther's Defense when he came back in the game. And he did what he has done all year, 13 game winning drives in the 4th since start of 2015. Most of any QB in that span. The 2nd most right now is 7 in that span.





 
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Posted: #41
Quote Originally Posted by love2smash:


This angle is good, but unfortunately this angle does not apply to 2016 Raiders. I don't want to sound like a broken record, but in short this team does not look ahead. They respect every single team and the QB gives 110% effort and everybody follows suit. I know this because I watch all of the press videos pre and post game and everything in between.

I will be making a play on this game and that is OAK ML. Its been money 9 times this year.

I think BUF +3 is a reverse trap. Cappers will look at raw numbers and think Raiders dont cover well at home, Carr has a broken pinky and will have an off day, BUF is in a must win, etc, etc.

The way this team is operating, all look ahead angles do not apply. Carr's is a tough MF and a broken pinky will not bring him down. You could see the fear in Panther's Defense when he came back in the game. And he did what he has done all year, 13 game winning drives in the 4th since start of 2015. Most of any QB in that span. The 2nd most right now is 7 in that span.







We won't think that raiders don't cover well at home. RAIDERS HAVE NOT COVERED A HOME GAME AT HOME SINCE FOREVER. HONESTLY I DONT EVEN KNOW IF THEY DID LAST YEAR EITHER. The game against broncos was a pick at open and at close so itt DOES NOT COUNT. PLEASE PLEASE TRY AND CONVINCE ME AGAIN WHY ANYONE SHOULD CONSIDER TRUSTING THAT RAIDERS WOULD COVER AT HOME THIS WEEK? Maybe they do, but history shows that there is slim to ZERO chance that it happens.
 
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Posted: #42
Do you guys ever even track anything or take notes or remember match ups or who plays good at home or on the road or when or anything?  or do you just play WEEK to WEEK like the rest of the public that gets slaughtered WEEK in and WEEK out by their horrible PERCEPTION on things. I don't win all the time. No one does. Sometimes my reads are spot on and sometimes they are way off, but if you think you are gonna win in NFL by just looking at the listing of who is playing this week and just pick the team you think will win you have ALMOST no chance to make it.
 
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Posted: #43
Quote Originally Posted by bpickin:



We won't think that raiders don't cover well at home. RAIDERS HAVE NOT COVERED A HOME GAME AT HOME SINCE FOREVER. HONESTLY I DONT EVEN KNOW IF THEY DID LAST YEAR EITHER. The game against broncos was a pick at open and at close so itt DOES NOT COUNT. PLEASE PLEASE TRY AND CONVINCE ME AGAIN WHY ANYONE SHOULD CONSIDER TRUSTING THAT RAIDERS WOULD COVER AT HOME THIS WEEK? Maybe they do, but history shows that there is slim to ZERO chance that it happens.

I understand your reasoning, thats why my play is OAK ML.

At the same time, I think BUF +3 is a reverse trap. But I am not confident about it because of the reasons you stated. OAK does not win by a big margin of victory and all games are a roller coaster emotional ride.

All of your points are great so I lay off the spread. But OAK ML is 

Dont believe me, go ahead and jump in front of hot Carr.
 
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Posted: #44
Just like the smart people have bet dallas every week while they are covering machines, I and hopefully other have bet agaianst Oakland at home as faves while they have been non covering machines. Except Mexico and when they were a pick. Aside from that I won with SAN Diego and Carolina and Atlanta... and I won't stop betting against them until they prove otherwise. You shouldn't either... 
 
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Posted: #45
Quote Originally Posted by bpickin:



We won't think that raiders don't cover well at home. RAIDERS HAVE NOT COVERED A HOME GAME AT HOME SINCE FOREVER. HONESTLY I DONT EVEN KNOW IF THEY DID LAST YEAR EITHER. The game against broncos was a pick at open and at close so itt DOES NOT COUNT. PLEASE PLEASE TRY AND CONVINCE ME AGAIN WHY ANYONE SHOULD CONSIDER TRUSTING THAT RAIDERS WOULD COVER AT HOME THIS WEEK? Maybe they do, but history shows that there is slim to ZERO chance that it happens.


other than the Broncos game which they covered at home week 9, the last time they covered at home was week 8 last year vs the jets 


 
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Posted: #46
I am not betting agaianst Carr because I think they have some great stuff going on over there. I am betting agaianst Oakland at home as a favorite because they can't cover a spread at home to save their life. I made a ton of money last year and so far this year until I got waxed in Mexico. Honestly I should have known to lay off, but I was on Super tilt and couldn't see past it. But I did win again last week like a bunch of people. The reason tho I am thinking they may lose SU is because the other 2 times they were -3.5 all week and I never say antgying less then the hook. This week I don't see any hook which makes me think they want people to buy the .5 down to 2.5 being that twice they lost by 3 on an almost identical spread. The safe play is buy the half to 3.5 tho and small ml.  If Oakland covers this week at home then the trend will be broken and we will just have to see which way we go for next time..
 
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Posted: #47
Quote Originally Posted by doctrepp:



other than the Broncos game which they covered at home week 9, the last time they covered at home was week 8 last year vs the jets 



I use Scoresandodds and it opened and closed at a pick so to be fair I did not include this matchup... some people had a pick some didn't 
 
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Posted: #48
Quote Originally Posted by bpickin:



We won't think that raiders don't cover well at home. RAIDERS HAVE NOT COVERED A HOME GAME AT HOME SINCE FOREVER. HONESTLY I DONT EVEN KNOW IF THEY DID LAST YEAR EITHER. The game against broncos was a pick at open and at close so itt DOES NOT COUNT. PLEASE PLEASE TRY AND CONVINCE ME AGAIN WHY ANYONE SHOULD CONSIDER TRUSTING THAT RAIDERS WOULD COVER AT HOME THIS WEEK? Maybe they do, but history shows that there is slim to ZERO chance that it happens.

Why do you keep saying the raiders havent covered a game at home? They destroyed Denver and you say it was a pk so it doesnt count. They won SU and Covered in blowout fashion at home against Denver.  So zero percent chance they cover eh lol ok
 
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Posted: #49
The line definitely seems off no doubt. I just don't get how the finger situation is no big deal. 
 
 
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Posted: #50
Quote Originally Posted by Damaged99:


Why do you keep saying the raiders havent covered a game at home? They destroyed Denver and you say it was a pk so it doesnt count. They won SU and Covered in blowout fashion at home against Denver.  So zero percent chance they cover eh lol ok

Please stop. They were not favored at open or close. Please just stop. They have not covered at home as a favorite at close since last year. Do your research before you badger me. I like the discussion, but it seems like none of you guys really know anything about anything... for the sake of you guys down my throats, I really hope the raiders COVER AT HOME as faves and then we won't be able to talk about it anymore lol.
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