Cash Out, Hedge, or Let it Ride?

Who bets a parlay for $1900 of this magnitude ur bookie must love u 

For real I was almost pleading with him cuz I saw users saying " let it ride" which is just the most ridiculous move. When being offered 11k of 14k off 1,900 wager smfh. Find it hard to believe he didn't cash 

@vanzack

 How much did it cost him? 

@beats723

 Why you find it hard to believe he didn't cash.  He literally say he letting it ride!  The guy made a $1900 13 team parlay to begin with!

Asking eagles which haven't lost a game yet to win at home in a divisional game after a bye week only makes it harder to NOT let it ride especially against a so so team.

@Ppkay

 Yea not right for me to assume he cashed when he said other but to justify not cashing is insane. Especially a divisional game against a scrappy Washington team. These two teams always play tough can go either way. Philly loss was inevitable. Regardless I still thought they'd win but not come near covering -11. You wage 1,900 on a 13 leg adjusted line parlay , hit all but the last leg for Monday night and just say poof eff it ?? The cash out was 10,900 of 13,900 . Everyone has different financial status I get it but 9k nothing to sneeze at . I wouldn't be surprised if the cashout went higher in first quarter up 14-7

So dumb to not try and middle..

agree. That’s just insanity and greed.

 

 

I have 1 question to ask you.

If this man did not cash out on a 5x return on his initial investment , he’s down -$2000.

Are you saying it was the right call to not hedge/cash out? If so, you’ve completely lost me.

Profits that are here today may not be there 3 hours later. Always take the guarantee money. Dude just 5x’d his initial investment. Instead he’s now left with his prlck in his hand.

@dmcenti

 do you need money...cash out...can you afford to lose...let it run...can you afford to lose a bit...i mean get your stake back then you have a free bet...i dunno...

@Drew61

 is that what it is...1600 13 teamer...arse...cash out...

@bet-to-win

 last leg was on the commies...keep it...ah hang on...

 

he can buy us all a drink...

 

wheres the party...casn pay for travel and expences and bet in the booki..he now own...1600...13 team rollup...nowe pinch o salt that one...

 

eejit

@FiftyFifty99

 skins were plus 11...fek me...bookies no dick...never more than a ield goal...

I never gave advice on whether to cash out or not.

I just explained that if he didnt make a 13 team parlay, but made a 12 team parlay and left the last team off (the one that didnt start at the same time), he would have received 950 more than if he didn't.

It isnt a question of what to do when you are in that situation.  It is a question of AVOIDING that situation in the first place.  

Read this several times:  IF YOU ARE IN A POSITION TO HEDGE A PARLAY, YOU HAVE ALREADY MADE A FUNDAMENTAL ERROR.

You guys who say that because the Eagles lost....  That is proof he should hedge - are the same guys who say "you hit a 16 against a 10, and you lost - so it was the wrong thing to do".  The result does not prove that the decision was wrong.  The math proves that the decision was based on his options at the time - and he would have had to pay about 9% in "tax" to get his money out.  This is due to him making a mistake at the beginning - and has nothing to do with the Eagles.

@vanzack

 I get it leaving the Monday nighter off makes complete sense. Although at the point Sunday night before game starts, when 12 of 13 hit and with that offer the common sense play is to pay the tax of walking away 9k profit. Again everyone financial status/bankroll different. BOLTA.   Btw I despise parlays lol 

 

"Utility" has a big part of the decision.  9k to you might be a lot, 9k to someone else life changing, and 9k to someone else is dust.

So when a post like this is made, it makes no difference the amount.  It could have been a 19 dollar bet to win 130, or it could have been a 1.9m dollar bet to win 13M.  Makes no difference when you are the audience to this type of question.

So that being said...  The ONLY thing we can answer the question with is a mathematical presentation of the facts.  And these are the mathematical facts:
1.  He would pay about 9% tax to get out of the bet (give up 9% of his winnings for the right to not include the last selection)
2.  He could have avoided that tax altogether by just betting a 12 teamer instead of a 13 teamer

Thats it.  Thats the only facts we know.  Anything else is personal anecdotal advice based on your perception of how much "utility" 9 grand has, and personal anecdotal advice on whether the eagles will win tonight.  The only empirical evidence we have is the math available - and that points to the fact that a mistake was made, and in order to not compound the mistake, the math points to keeping the wager.

I hope this makes sense.  There really isnt a debate here.

PS... There is a lesson here.  DO NOT MAKE PARLAYS THAT DO NOT HAVE SELECTIONS THAT RUN CONCURRENTLY, OR THAT YOU DO NOT SEE A SIGNIFICANT LINE VALUE BETTING NOW VS LATER.

If everyone just followed that, you would be in much better shape.

My apologies if my paragraphs in this reply are lost. They have "disappeared" in the past I don't understand why. I can see them in my post, yet as soon as I hit SUBMIT they disappear and everything is run together. Above, ActionMagnet says to "always take the guaranteed money." Always? No. Taking "guaranteed money" is not necessarily a smart move and I can prove it with a very simple example: Let's say your chosen football team, a team that was favored by just a single point, is now leading by ten points with just a few minutes left to go in the game. If they cover the spread, which it look like they will almost certainly do, you will collect $1,050 for a win of $500! (Your risk was $550.) I come along and offer to buy that ticket from you, right now, for $800. Do you sell it to me? If your answer is no, they why not?? I'm offering you guaranteed money!!! I'm offering you a guaranteed profit! There's still a few minutes left to play in this game! Anything could still happen. Well, of course you shouldn't sell it to me or anyone else. At least not for $800. The reason is simple - that ticket, at this moment in time, is most likely worth much more than $800. Depending upon exact game scenario (exactly how much time is left and who has the ball, etc.), that ticket is probably worth closer to $950 to $1,000. Maybe more. This is EXACTLY what happens when you hedge. You are effectively selling something for LESS than what it's worth. You normally do NOT want to do this, whether you're selling a car or a house or whatever. In this example it would not be wise to take the "guaranteed money." Hedging comes at a price and YOU have to pay that price. You will make more money in a very short period of time if you never hedge. To put it another way, if you and I bet on the same teams/games, and you hedge whenever you can and I never hedge, I will very soon have more money than you. Maybe not that weekend... maybe not that month... but very soon.

Sure enough, all paragraphs above completely lost, as if I never entered them at all.

^^^^^^^

Covers is secretly owned by Elon Musk and therefore there has been zero development and user experience budget since 1999 Lous Hot Tub.

I challenge anyone to name another site that you cant post a picture, a table, or cut and paste nearly anything in the year 2022.

He received some great advice in here and lost... He is not sports wagering anymore but does this type of parlay for $1900....  ok....

lol unreal this dude really needed another 4k jsut to let it ride? FOOLISH. well he paid for it. last legs ALWAYS lose.