Chasing Prop Glory-Week 14 edition ( 88-59 ytd )

Spoke too soon on Newton woops

2 fg's at half. 2 to go!

Welp the rams and pats refused to kick fgs 2nd half and elected to just go for it over and over but hey 2-1 ain't bad and the loser was the smaller bet as I posted so not too shabby at all. Decent Thursday showing.  On to Sunday for a full slate!

90-60 (60%) heading into Sunday 

@JetsFan86

 Insane in the membrane !!! 

@FiveStarGeneral

 Its never good enough! Always gotta push for more. This is the first season I've made a point to track bets and post them all here. Whats a good sample size of amount of bets along with win percentage to be considered good? I know where I'm at currently at 60% is good but as far as sample size goes idk? All I know is I just wanna keep putting out more wins then loses! Lol

You are very good. No doubt. 

The only thing is that knowing that you are hitting 60% is almost useless without knowing the lines you are getting. 

If on average your wins have been on 1.8 lines then you have an 8% ROI. That is HUGE. 

If you are taking more juice usually and lets say your average bet is 1.75 then your ROI is 5%, which is very very very good as well. 

Now if you told me your average bet has a line of 2.0, you should start considering going tout haha (but you would already have been banned from your sites). 

In the end, if you want efficient tracking of your results you need to know how much have ypu wagered and hpw much have ypu proffitted. A guy can be 1-9 and have a huge ROI if he is betting 30.0 lines

@JetsFan86

  All i can say , my brother is like you said....Keep on pushing for more and do exactly what you are doing. Studying pays off in the long run and n your words you must chase prop glory..................... I always say...May THe Prop Gods Be with you. Keep up the good work.It pays off in the end.

@gutinstinctus

 Thanks for the reply and I get what you mean.  Ill start adding more details like units bet ect to the posts now . Appreciate the reply again! I guess I was more inquiring if there's like some "unwritten rule" type thing or something along those lines about a sample size number of bets to reach before it means more or is read I think that anything over 52% is good but I can see what you mean about how its all relative to the lines you take since 60% or 52% at like ml fav bets taking -180 or more wouldn't be near the same as if you normally had -110 lines ect. Helpful post thanks brother!

@SelectivePlayer

Thank you and yes I'm trying to study up as much as possible and try to get my best effort out there for not just myself but everyone! 

And the point of me posting that in my thread wasn't any type of subtle brag attempt or anything like that. I just want to really have the best posts and information in my posts as I can for everyone so just looking on ways to improve content. Appreciate everyone who views my threads and comments!  Starting Sunday ill try to improve the info in post thanks guys!

@JetsFan86

 Cheers. And again, since I am well aware that it isnt as if you are taking -200 lines, your results are more than impressive! After 100 bets, you already have a sufficient sample size to know that you have what it takes and that you are EV+ in this. 

Ive been betting seriously for almost 3 years now, and there is only one market (live NBA totals), on which my ROI is better than 5%. So it appears as if you have found yourself a nice gold mine. The great thing about props is that there is a huge range of bets to cherry pick from. The downside is that limits are low, and usually books will flag and limit you "quickly". 

BOL!

@gutinstinctus

 Again thank you very much for replying i Appreciate the knowledge and insight from you about this! You've been very helpful. And luckily the set up i use is not on major or even minor online sites where they will restrict what I can bet. Upside is fast payouts and easy interface,  downside is I dont get as many available bets. I dont get anytime scorer lines only 1st td ect so that hurts because I'm very good with anytime scorers. My guy does catch on and will do things like pull certain lines or not offer them after I smack a few but when I see a type of bet not show I just lay off the certain bet for a week or so and it comes back. I just love props because I love analyzing the game scheme/tempo and everything else that comes into play and there's always so many bets to pick from you can find value in any game if you pau attention and I dont get those damn baiting spreads ect lol. 

@gutinstinctus

 Also gave you a follow.  Cheers bud!

[Teaser] - 1.5 units  10pt 3 teams

North Texas-.5 / over 49 asu vs az/open play

I know the 1st 2 legs are college but posting it here anyhow.  Last leg should we get to it will be nfl on sunday

[Correction]

Over 49 is sjsu vs nevada sorry

Unt-.5 leg 1 

On to game 2!

 leg two ov 49 sjsu vs Nevada 

 phone died but we eek out leg two even after an awful 4q. On to sunday!

Before the write up id like to mention that im going to now track units as I've left that part out. All bets will be 1 unit unless otherwise noted!

Sunday is approaching tomorrow which means it's that time again to continue our week 14 pursuit of those winning player props. The week started off hot clearing 2 of our 3 bets on the Ravens game by half time while half way home to the 3rd winner which floundered. 2-1 to start isn't bad. Heres a sneak peak at the start to my Sunday action. Lets begin!
Thielen ov 5.5 rec (+100)

Thielen is coming off back to back games of 8 catches on 11 targets. And his qb has been hot too. Cousins comes in off three 300+ passing yard games while throwing for 3 touchdowns per game. The bucs secondary has been pretty suspect and passing on the bucs is the way to beat them because that rush def is Tough. This is a prime spot for thielen to be featured and rack up a lot of catches.

David Montgomery ov 64.5 rushing (-115) [to win 2 units ]

Back to Montgomery again this week. Love him or hate him but hes been productive and this week deserves a little bigger of bet then usual (2 units) as he has a tasty matchup vs the texans bottom of the barrel rush defense. Monty may not be as flashy as some like but hes productive enough and in an offense that should lean on him this week to pound the ball. The texans give up nearly 140 per game on the ground at the tune of just over 5 yards per carry ( If memory serves me right ) and I've been a Montgomery believer since he entered the league and I have no reason to not believe he can't get it done here vs the dysfunctional texans rush defense.

Mike Gesicki ov 38.5 receiving (-115) [to win 2 units]

Gesicki averaged close to 45 yards a game and see a matchups vs rhe chiefs who aren't the best at defending the tight end. Gesicki should be heavily involved in the game plan this week as the dolphins try to steal a win from the heavy hitting chiefs. No Preston Williams in the line up should turn into higher volume for Gesicki. Tue looked his way 12 times last week which turns into 9/88/1 line. He could see a similar line and his usage should have him over the magic number pretty easily (or so we hope)

Sorry it took a bit to get the write up in. Been busy painting all day and just got a minute to type it up. You know the routine, stay tuned for updates np later then 930am pst for the 10 am game. Prop glory here we come!

Thank you and gl this week :D 

@ykim49

 Thanks bud you too. Running on fumes right now. As you can tell my write up looks like crap lol. 2 hrs sleep and got up at 430am and just got home. And now back on the move ahhhhhhhh

GL JetsFan Impressive Props to you mah man!

by the way since your username is JetsFan just curious as to what is your take on the Jets to @ least Cover this weekend? .... against SeaHawks @ home too

Let me know if you have a opinion if u do u do & if u don't u don't

@Macwestie1

 I'm not one to bet sides but regaurdless of how bad Seattle looked recently and the jets have been hanging i would not take the jets to cover this week. 14.5 is a huge number but i feel like its a mega trap.  Dont be suprised when the jets get rolled badly. Just my two cents but again props is my avenue more so then spreads

@JetsFan86

 fair enough & much respect & Props to you mah man 

@Macwestie1

 I'm a die hard jets fan but a realist. I embrace 0-16  at this point lol. Thank you yo user good luck tomorrow!  I know youl get em!