Chasing Prop Glory-Week 14 edition ( 88-59 ytd )

Ov 3.5 fg Washington missed one that would have cashed. 3 bets today to dust by some bs. Oof

@ykim49

 I just saw your friend request and added you btw

Aww knoz hurt? 

Knox should've hit the over already if he could just hold on to one of the 5 passes that got thrown to him lol.  The hard thing right now looks like Conner, dude looks like he doesn't plan on rushing for more than 1-2 yards at a time, no explosiveness.  Hopefully he starts getting a little more aggressive, 9 carries already averaging 2 YPC.

knox winner. 
jets I added you as a friend :)

There it is!  Knox with the clutch 3rd down conversion, saw Allen eyeing him the whole time and I was like this is it 5 yards right here 

Dawson knox ov 21.5 rec 

@UncleRuckus

 Yes sir he got it! Sadly Connor was trash

Connor 

@Unplug

 I saw. Sent you a pm to your inbox

Mondays here and so are props to close out week 14 when then Ravens play visitor to the Browns. Week 14 started promising going 2-1 on tnf barely missing the fg prop for the sweep and Sunday started hot too then became disappointing with multiple near misses. Washington hit 3 fgs alone and missed one which killed the fg prop, gallman had 57 rush yards falling short of the 58.5 line all while having his last run of the day negated by a penalty which would have sent him over. Thats the breaks but its a new day and we are looking to get a couple wins here to get us over the 6-6 hump for week 14. Lets begin.

Lamar Jackson ov 54.5 rushing (-115)

Lamar ran 7 times for 45 yards vs the browns in week 1 in a blowout win. His carries have increased and unill he proves that he isn't going to light defenses in fire with his legs its a prop to keep taking.  Double digit winds tonight mean more ground work and while the browns have been good against the run they do give it up more so to running rbs. Its Lamar time!

Mark andrews ov 3.5 rec (-130)

Andrews is back from the covid list and gets a good matchup vs the browns. As mentioned above the wind being 15mph def will have impact and lamar isn't killing anyone through the airnas of late.  Id expect andrews to be heavily involved and be a security target for some shorter high percentage throws to move the ball. In his last 3 games before hitting the covid list andrews turned 21 targets into 15 catches. No reason why he shouldn't have 4+ here.

*Bonus*

This is all im settled on for now . Theres one more bet that im gun shy on but there's positives and negatives to the logic. Landry ov 4.5 receptions is borderline for me tonight.  He cleared the mark in his last two meetings vs the same secondary  and he should get coverage from Marlon Humphrey who has been bad as of late. The winds play more a factor for me in landry being productive as opposed to andrews but im of the belief this game that the Ravens will win and baker will need to move the ball through the air in order to put points up as I think chubb could have a difficult game tonight which could mean more volume for landry . This one is up in the air for me and ill update later if I decide to play it.

That will conclude week 14 for now. I have one more play to update in a bit so stay tuned but its a gloomy day in San Diego today and some coffee is in order. Chasing the caffeine glory and prop glory goes hand in hand as of late so ill enjoy my coffee, enjoy tonight's game and hope everyone else enjoys their Monday and the pursuit of prop glory.

@JetsFan86

 Good luck tonight bro! 

im on that Chubb over 78.5. Since he back, he’s on a high and have 17+ carry a game! I think he gonne have at least 80 yards! 

good luck buddy

@Jord123

 Thank you.  Not on chubb tonight but hope it hits for ya!

Thanks Jet! I reviewed both and am tailing Andrews and practically tailing  Lamar. I was offered better odds at Lamar over 10.5 rush attempts than his rush yards, and my line for rush yards is not 54.5 but 58.5, so I went with the rush attempts. Also with the weather I feel that there will be more short yardage read options. Anyways, if I would have had 54.5 yards I would have taken that one. Lets hope he rushes 15 times for 80 yards :)

Thanks for sharing. I I rarely tail, but with your record, the weather forecast and after looking into the numbers, your bets smell like pure value. I had to. Thanks again! 

@gutinstinctus

 Really appreciate the reply bud thank you! Yes if you have a better line on rush attempts then yardage id absolutely take that instead. Im just taking the rushing total because lamar is lamar and he can smash it in one play and I expect him to take off for double digit attempts. That with the weather just smells value you're right and thats why im on them! Always try for my highest probability picks each play . And these 2 are mine for tonight. Cheers and lets get em tonight!

@JetsFan86

If you were considering Chubb does it concern you that he ran 10 times for 60 yds in the first CLE/BAL matchup of the season (albeit that one was back in Sept)?

@thekoreanmang

 The previous game numbers do play a factor in determining what bets I take and while 6 ypc is great it doesn't mean it will be replicated. The reason I'm not taking chubb tonight is because with the weather and browns only really wr threat being landry the browns appear more one dimensional in this matchup so I expect the Ravens to be ready to do all they can to shut him down which will curb the browns offense. Im not saying it will be a blowout repeat of week 1 which is what killed his value. But the potential is there with this being a crucial game for the Ravens.  And in a one dimensional browns game as I see it I have to give the edge to the balt squad in this one. In a game that should be dominated by the ground and I think balt is gonna put up pts easier then the browns and if the browns get down early chubb value dips and then with the weather you're gonna get more passes in a high win situation which brings the turnover factors in. To many negatives in my perceived game script to back chubb tonight 

@Ilost

 I think you forgot to type? Lol

I got Lamar at 63.5... think youde take it?

ok here's an interesting prop what do you think JetsFan?

Ravens TE Mark Andrews over 3.5 receptions 

I read this article:

TE Mark Andrews over 3.5 receptions (-130)

It's been a disappointing year for Andrews - and he's missed the team's last two games - but this is an ideal spot for a bounce-back performance. The Ravens' top target recorded 12 receptions during his last two games and has logged at least three catches in eight of his 10 contests this year - including a five-catch effort in Week 1 against the Browns.

Cleveland has struggled to contain tight ends all year, ranking in the bottom three in average targets allowed (8.33) and receptions allowed (5.75) to opposing tight ends. Expect Andrews to be used early and often in his return.

(Odds source: theScore Bet)

GL & Props to you mah man

@nuggins

 My threshold is usually +-5 yards depending on the player and situation.  It could be worth looking at his rush attempts as previously discussed to get a different angle on it

@Macwestie1

 Yes this is one of my picks im playing.  He did well week 1 and I think with weather short passes are in order. Not like lamar has been airing it a ton so thats why im on Andrews myself.  Think he should be the most reliable and hittable target in this game for lamar

[correction]

Lamar rushing for me is ov 58.5 which is within the threshold and will still be played over 58.5 for me.

Yeah my line is 64.5 for lj not gonna go with that lol