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*** Cincinatti Bengals @ Indianapolis Colts ***

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Posted: #76
Thx LC...GL
 
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Posted: #77
colts going roll luck-4
 
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Posted: #78
Quote Originally Posted by LeagueCapper:

Colts Strength of Schedule:

Andrew Luck is a good QB but this Colts team is overrated. Since the start of last season, the Colts are 23-11 (67.6%); however that includes a 12-0 record against the crappiest division in the NFL as they’ve beaten up on the Houston Texans, Jacksonville Jaguars, and Tennessee Titans 4 times each. If you havn’t heard of those teams before they are the ones who have Blaine Gabbert, Blake Bortles, Jake Locker, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Matt Schaub, Ryan Mallett, and Chad Henne leading their teams. Outside of the division, the Colts are a .500 ball club going just 11-11 (50.0%). 

Colts Coaching:

The Colts coaching staff has some of the worst gameplans going into big games in the entire AFC. Ever notice how bad of a 1H team they are? Lots of times we talk about the Colts being a 2nd half team and coming back from large deficits. Most of the time this is due to the Coach’s gameplan not working at all in the first half. Either they are very good at halftime adjustments, or they abandon their gameplan altogether and let Andrew sling the rock around. Let’s take a look how they’ve come out in the 1H of some big games.

Half-time Deficits against Quality Opponents:

Down 10-6 to Chargers
Down 27-3 to Cardinals
Down 31-10 to Chiefs (playoff game)
Down 21-12 to Patriots (playoff game)
Down 24-7 to Broncos (primetime game)
Down 35-20 to Steelers
Down 14-10 to Patriots (primetime game)
Down 14-7 to Browns
Down 28-0 to Cowboys (not an important game for INDY but shutout entirely)

Week 7:

The Colts defeated the Bengals 27-0 in a lopsided affair. Let’s take a closer look at how prepared the Bengals were for that game. A week prior in week 6, the Bengals went to overtime and played a full 75 minutes against the Carolina Panthers in a 37-37 tie. I mentioned this earlier but road teams after a tie game are a perfect 0-7 SU and 0-7 ATS all-time, losing by an average of 19.29 points. The Panthers also went to Green Bay after that game and lost by 21 points. It is no surprise the Bengals had nothing left in the tank for that game. The Colts dominated them but that wasn’t Cincinatti’s true form. How did each team perform the week after? The Colts lost to the Steelers 34-51 while Big Ben threw for a franchise record 521 passing yards and 6 touchdown passes. The Bengals returned to their true form as well beating the Ravens 27-24 in a tough divisional game. The NFL is all about spots, and the Colts will not have the luxury of facing the Bengals off a tie game this time around.

Bengals Hunger:

Last year the Bengals had a very good season and they hosted a playoff game against the Chargers. They fell flat in a huge game once again and people have been criticizing Andy Dalton and Marvin Lewis for not being able to win a big game since then. They went through an entire offseason listening to critics trash them, well how have they responded?

Prior to this year, this Bengals team has never won in Baltimore and has never swept them in the same year as Andy Dalton has gone 0-3 trying during his first 3 years in Cincinatti. Week 1 they went to Baltimore, jumped to a 15-0 halftime lead and beat them 23-16. Week 8 they win again 27-24 to complete the sweep.

Prior to this year, Andy Dalton has never won a big primetime game. Week 16 they defeated Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos 37-28 after a pick-6 that put them down 7-0.

All that’s left for this team this year is to win a playoff game. And this is a tremendous spot for them to do so. 

Supporting Systems:

Non-Divisional teams in the playoffs revenging a same season double digit loss are 16-5 ATS (76.2%). As you might guess, teams that are capable of making the playoffs are quality teams that know how to make adjustments. Most people won’t admit the Bengals are a quality team but they have gone 21-11 SU since the start of last season in a very tough division (no Texans, Titans, or Jaguars in this one) so they have to be given some credit.

I don't bet football much by how can I not play Bengals +3 1st half and Colts TT under 13.5 based on the above numbers, thanks for the info hope, I win both
All Out
 
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Posted: #79
Quote Originally Posted by Tigers2013:

LC.  Do you have the record of ats  dogs in wild card weeken d but also the playoffs.  

Dogs in playoffs:

ATS:75-65-4 (1.01, 53.6%)

Dogs in week 18:

ATS:35-38-4 (-1.52, 47.9%)

 
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Posted: #80
Quote Originally Posted by best_bets:

I like your thread when you just post your plays with no explanation or write-up. You have been doing this long enough. I value your judgment.

Post #29
 
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Posted: #81
Lol, again..fade material.
 
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Posted: #82
can someone please post analysis that isn't just to convince themselves?
 
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Posted: #83
Quote Originally Posted by LeagueCapper:

The Red Ginger will get his first playoff win against the Colts this weekend.
  • Bengals +4 -105 (6x)
  • Bengals Over 23 -110 (2x)
  • Bengals +185 (2x)


What a complete disaster.

Who in the world bets 10 units on the Bengals in the playoffs.

Are you new to football?
 
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Posted: #84
Quote Originally Posted by LeagueCapper:

The Red Ginger will get his first playoff win against the Colts this weekend.
  • Bengals +4 -105 (6x)
  • Bengals Over 23 -110 (2x)
  • Bengals +185 (2x)


POOR Ol Carrot Top!!

Adios!!
 
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Posted: #85
LC you are a different guy this year in NBA and NFL man...... dont know whats wrong with you...... maybe take a break for couple weeks


 
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Posted: #86
Quote Originally Posted by URZ262:

I don't usually go by trends because they aren't as reliable as the stats and the stats say this game goes under EASILY

Teams that can't run can't score in the playoffs and don't win and the Colts are the worst rushing team left after AZs loss. Less than 4 YPG for the season. That means they'll have to throw into one of the better secondaries in the league. Cincy is one of only 2 teams with more picks than TDs allowed. The don't get many sacks, in fact they only had 15 on the year so they play basic zone cover 2s and cover 3s.

Receivers are banged up for both teams and Indy does have a good pass rush and that is bad for Dalton. He only plays well when his uniform stays clean.

This will be an easy under, they won't score more than 37 total.

Under 48.5 Large


Don't blame the site guys, some people have good analysis,

Gresham and Green out lol no one open for a bad QB, Colts can do what they want

Spread will be +7 Colts at Denver, take the colts +7 large if you can get a TD or more

Take Baltimore + over in NE, the offensive lines for those two teams rock but Baltimore is better than the Pats, they prove it every year, I'm already on Balto -7 Large
 
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Posted: #87
Quote Originally Posted by tbomb777:

LC you are a different guy this year in NBA and NFL man...... dont know whats wrong with you...... maybe take a break for couple weeks



he is working for vegas... 
 
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Posted: #88
Who needs AJ Green anyways...
 
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Posted: #89
I'll give you benefit of the doubt LC but Dalton to the AFC Champ? Yikes
 
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Posted: #90
I'm sure he's up units for the year though :) And a nice bank roll?
 
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Posted: #91
Wowwwww nice good picks. cincy an the over. Very good picks
 
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Posted: #92
dont like seeing anyone lose money to the fckin books no matter how much money means to a person... 

think about a break to recuperate... gl lc
 
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Posted: #93
Quote Originally Posted by MrWhatsItToYa:

Hmm lets see,Andy Dalton in a high pressure game,in which he has to win,think about it,if he loses his 4th straight play-off game,he is done.Plus throw in the added pressure of his team not winning a play-off game since 1990.Then his main receiver being out,puts everything on him to do it himself.If they fall behind early,and he starts putting more pressure on himself,it could be a complete blow out.I  really think you have to put your money on indy.
Bye Bye Andy,it was nice knowing you,good luck in your career back up roll,from now on.
 
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Posted: #94
Game was actually a lot closer than it should of been. If it wasn't for dropped passes, a bad fumble and a few questionable calls, game would of been over by half time. 
 
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Posted: #95
Send in the clowns...they're already here!!!
 
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Posted: #96
League Capper no offense but you've been garbage all season long in every major sports category
 
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Posted: #97
Quote Originally Posted by tbomb777:

LC you are a different guy this year in NBA and NFL man...... dont know whats wrong with you...... maybe take a break for couple weeks



He is different....and I'm not harping on him losing, it happens to the best of us...no one wins every game....but his money management has been atrocious and VERY unlike him.  It's these types of things that make me question if Covers is able to take over peoples accounts.  I know it sounds absolutely ludicrous and I want to punch myself for saying it...but come on.  LC betting 12 units on one game let alone the Bengals on the road without AJ Green?  Doesn't seem legit and highly unlike him.  Especially as cold as he's been.  He doesn't seem the type to press and chase when he's cold.  but what do I know.
 
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Posted: #98
Dude hes no different than any degenerate on this board. we all chase. we all go threw losing streaks.. its dummys like you that put guys like LC on pedastools and worship them like their kings
 
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Posted: #99
Ya the LC I know would never have bet 12 units on one game for sure. Let alone a bad Andy Dalton with no AJ Green on the road in a playoff atmosphere where he doesn't succeed. It seems like LC purposely makes bad bets IMO just hoping they would win. I'm not bashing his pick(s) it happens to us all. But anyone who bet Bengals today is a little nuts IMO. This is the same Dalton who started off 1-12 11 yards passing and 0 first downs in the first half of the last game vs these same Colts earlier this yr. Why would anyone bet on Dalton again here? He's a horrible QB. I'd take Teddy Bridge over him any day.
 
 
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Posted: #100
ahiuhaiuhai League Crapper

10 units BURNT!

This guy is a real loser

Last year his name should have been Lucky Capper but his luck is over!

Fade and get rich
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