DEC 23

PIT +2.5 +105

PIT +135

PIT U38 -105

GB -4.5 -108

SEA -3.5 +102

LAC +13 -105

WAS O37 -105

DET -3 +101

DEN O34 -109

NE +7 +100

Good luck Raiders.  

@Raiders22

 GB and NE both on my list this week. NE +7 +100 looks like a great line. Can’t get there with Pitt. Tomlin is struggling to coach this team and Mason Rudolph will have to prove himself this season before I can bet on him. As far as the Chargers go, I can’t wait to see this game. Seems like the sharp money is on the Chargers, but the basis for the pick is the coaching change? Seems like Easton Stick is going to have to play a decent game to keep this from getting out of hand. The chargers D is going to give up points no question. If the angle for the game is letdown spot Buffalo/coaching change for LA then I have to go with Buffalo here. Just a 1u play for me but I’m interested to hear what your thoughts are?

@brn2loslive2win

I do not see QB play, or rather lack of play, as a huge factor in PIT.  Not much difference in any of them there at this point.  It is just too hard to ignore the PIT home dog situation -- 19-7 last 20 years and 10-3 in the last 5 years.  69-51 after a loss.  Etc.  I had the line set at PIT +1.4 and PIT +3.56.  So, I see decent value on them.  But you have a very good point about Tomlin -- especially when your top WR does not want to block because he is worried about getting hurt.  Rudolph will be on a short leash -- that could be good or bad.  But with all backup QBs in this game it could be a very sketchy game for sure.

LAC is just a good starting number for a home double-digit dog play at this point.  I had this line at LAC +13.8 -- so, I am not sure I will end up on this play.

Teams that do not have a lot to play for at this point in the season are hard to stay on.  But for sure I have to consider it being a letdown spot and on the road across country.  But it is prime time and BUF may be getting it together even though it might be too late.  I have them the 6th best team and it is hard to go against them.  But if I can get 14 I do not see how I can stay away from it.  You are correct about Stick -- he was decent last week -- but was throwing from behind by a huge number.  But a team after a blowout like that back at home in prime time should have enough pride to keep it within 2 TDs -- maybe.  At least I think that is more likely than another 63-21 game.  But if LAR can do that to them then Allen can easily do it.  

But I do like the GB and NE plays better because the numbers are slightly in my favor all around.

But they still have to play the games.  

22 

@Raiders22

 A side note about the Bills game (not that it necessarily matters)- Buffalo plays on Saturday so they won’t have to deal with the potential deflated feeling of watching Miami win. Every game right now is a playoff game for Buffalo and Josh Allen will be looking to prove that he is still (one of) the best quarterbacks in the league. I have Buffalo as an 8 point favorite with Justin Herbert as quarterback for LA. Despite Herbert’s poor season ( that I blame mostly on injuries and coaching) I do believe that he is worth the difference in points over Stick. I got Buffalo today at -11.5 which is an acceptable number to me. There may have been a good opportunity to bet both ways in this game with Buffalo being as low as -10.5 and as high as -14. Either way good luck and I appreciate/enjoy the discussion with you 

@brn2loslive2win

 Very good points and I think very accurate numbers.  BUF is too good of a team to have put themself in this position.  But the NFL is such a close thing.  A play here or there in a game and then a loss or win here or there matters a lot more these days. 

@Raiders22

 I have GB -4.5 as my strongest play of the weekend. How do you have it graded? What’s your line for the game? I have it as high as GB-10 and realistically around 8.5. Trying to figure out the angle of the Carolina backers. 

SOLID LOOKING CARD!

Only one I would be suspect with is GB, They are a hot mess right now on a downward spiral, I don't think even Carolina is the cure for their problems.

San Diego removing their cancer known as Staley is great news for them, with nothing to play for with the exception of putting a damper on Buffalo's playoff run wouldn't surprise me one bit. The points should be good but a win here would make for an entertaining day reading the posts. I remember when Dallas was favorite -12.5 over Arizona, has the same fell to me here.

GL 

@DoYouMind69

 feel not fell 

Both Steeler safeties are out (Kazee suspended and Fitzpatrick knee injury). Yeah, Chase is out but the Bengals have other weapons. 

@brn2loslive2win

PIT U38 GB -4.5 SEA -3.5 NE +7 +100

Maybe that is order of strongest plays right now.

I have the line for GB about where it is. I had GB -7.6 down to GB -4.06

I just think GB has something to play for and something to build on and CAR does not.  I like GB 2nd half of season better than the first half.  Love looked bad on the road and now looks more comfortable and confident.

@Buffalobob89074

Yessir.  I have Kazee graded at a negative grade on the year and so do not see a huge drop-off there.  There is always concern the you miss a guy if the next man up is a huge drop-off -- I do not think in this case it is.

For example, Kazee has the worst Rating Against for a safety in the league at 131.4.  I have his WAR at -.1

It cannot be that much of a drop-off I hope.

But it is a concern. 

@Raiders22

 "I just think GB has something to play for and something to build on and CAR does not."

Great analysis there  except for the fact they had something to build on before they lost to the Giants and TB at Home. Carolina DEFENSE has been somewhat Impressive the last few weeks and I think they give Love and GB a hard time. I believe the +5 is   with the ML AS WELL

@DoYouMind69

 GB is much improved to me.  After starting 2-5, they actually have a chance to finish with a winning record and mathematically are still in the playoff picture.

They have more confidence that Love is their franchise guy going forward.  They should lose to TB because TB is just a better team.  Even NYG at home can beat a team from time to time -- just as CAR can.

CAR on the other hand, has only pride to play for at this point.  They are out of the playoffs and can only play not to finish last in the league at this point.  They are very, very doubtful at this point if Young is their QB going forward.

Their defense has been terrible all year long.  The only thing that has slightly improved in the last 3 games is their Run Defense -- but that should not be the part of the game they will have to worry about against GB.  In all efficiency ratings I have them ranked negatively with the exception of Run Defense that I have at .1.  PASS -.3, Rush -.8, Receiving -.4, Pass Defense -.2, Pass Rush -.3.

They are a very, very bad team.  

GB is not great but is trending up.

I can get way more in-depth with the analysis.  

I simply gave an overview because the guy asked. 

But they still have to play the game and you could be right and CAR could cover the 5 points or even win outright.  That is why they play the games.

Good luck to you with CAR either way. 

PIT +3 -108

PIT U38 -105

LAC +13 -105

GB -4.5 -101

DET -3 +100

SEA -3.5 +102

WAS +3 -110

DET -3 +101

AZ +4 -105

NE +7 +100

@DoYouMind69

 One thing that is true about Carolina is that even when their defense shows up, Bryce Young shows up too. And when Bryce shows up you’re in big trouble. The guy has gotten a little better, but so little over the season that it shows how bad he really is. Maybe he’ll become a superstar next season and make us all a believer. But for now, he’s making us all a bunch of money. He single handedly makes his team lose. And they usually don’t cover.

@Raiders22

 Bol today 

@Raiders22

 Raiders +10