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Discuss: 3 unanswered scores by either team

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Prospect
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Posted: #1
Does this prop bet seem odd?

Will either team score 3 unanswered times in game?

Yes -221
No +186

Seems like it should be priced other way around. Opinions please?

 
Prospect
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Posted: #2
That does seem really strange.

 
Prospect
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Posted: #3
It's not likely that the same team would score 3 unanswered times.
 
Prospect
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Posted: #4
Right? seems so odd.. anyway I'll take a shot at the +money!
 
Prospect
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Posted: #5
Quote Originally Posted by hab:

It's not likely that the same team would score 3 unanswered times.


So, the "No" should be like -200

 
Captain
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Posted: #6
3 scores in a row by the same team happens in almost 2/3rds of games. The math is almost right. You aren't getting much, if anything, in your favor. 

FYI. 



 
Prospect
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Posted: #7
RJSizzle -- thanks mate - i didn't have any stats handy so if that's the clip then it makes sense..  cheers
 
Veteran
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Posted: #8
Quote Originally Posted by hab:

It's not likely that the same team would score 3 unanswered times.


You're obviously not familiar with Super Bowl props or what happens in a typical game.  This is a very common prop that all books will offer in the Super Bowl, as well as other marquee games.  And yes, it's more likely than not that at some point in the game, a team WILL score three straight times.  YES is always a heavy favorite:

From last year's Super Bowl:
WILL EITHER TEAM SCORE 3 STRAIGHT TIMES?
(Excludes extra points and 2 point conversions but Includes safeties)

YES -180
NO +160

https://lasvegassun.com/blogs/talking-points/2015/jan/23/las-vegas-prop-bets-full-list-super-bowl-49-odds/
 
All-Star
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Posted: #9
Does it include PATs?  I have always been confused by this prop and I see it all the time
 
Captain
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Posted: #10
Does not include PATs and it happened again. Happens all the time. 

Good luck boys. Sharing info is what this place is for. 


 
Prospect
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Posted: #11
Man, I've seen this prop so many times at "No" being huge plus money... it bites me in the behind so many times... It happens a hell of a lot more than we think.
 
Prospect
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Posted: #12
haha it changed it to "behind" ... that's jokes.. But yeah, this prop is available for every game and it's always so tempting, but never worth it unless you pick your spots
 
MVP
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Posted: #13
Quote Originally Posted by RJSizzle:

 Sharing info is what this place is for. 



You should post plays again.  
 
Captain
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Posted: #14
Quote Originally Posted by Ed-Collins:



You're obviously not familiar with Super Bowl props or what happens in a typical game.  This is a very common prop that all books will offer in the Super Bowl, as well as other marquee games.  And yes, it's more likely than not that at some point in the game, a team WILL score three straight times.  YES is always a heavy favorite:

From last year's Super Bowl:
WILL EITHER TEAM SCORE 3 STRAIGHT TIMES?
(Excludes extra points and 2 point conversions but Includes safeties)

YES -180
NO +160

https://lasvegassun.com/blogs/talking-points/2015/jan/23/las-vegas-prop-bets-full-list-super-bowl-49-odds/

any idea what the true odds are of 3 scores happening?  (I know that may be a loaded question..)
 
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Posted: #15
Quote Originally Posted by dimndimn:

any idea what the true odds are of 3 scores happening?  (I know that may be a loaded question..)

Actually, off the top of my head, I don't know what the odds are.  And that's only because I don't bet this Yes/No Three Scores prop.  It's a prop that doesn't interest me, although I have seen it offered for years and years.

However, this is an excellent question.  And if one IS going to bet on the prop you SHOULD know what the true odds are... so you can then determine how high of a house edge you're up against. 

And this is something that can easily be researched.  I recall doing so many years ago, (on all of the prior Super Bowls - because that's what I was interested in at the moment), but I don't remember the results.

To research it, all one needs is a decent sized sample of NFL box scores, (in a format that allows you to see who scores and in what order.)  Reviewing and logging a decent sized sample should give you a pretty good idea as to how often it happens in a typical game.
 
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Posted: #16
Whoops.

I really wish this site would allow one to edit your prior post, within a minute or so after you posted it, to correct typos and other mistakes.  Sigh...
 
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Posted: #17
This comes up every year.  Here is how the math works:

Let's say the total is 45.  Then you probably will have about 8 scores (5 TD + 3 FG). 

Assume if team A scores, then it is 60% chance for team B to score next (because they get the ball next).

After team A scores, they have a 40% * 40% chance of scoring the next two time which equals 16%.

With 8 scores there are 6 chances for this to happen.

So the chance this doesn't happen is 84% * 84% * 84% * 84% * 84% * 84% = 35%.   

Halftime makes it more likely for 3 straight scores.  And if the total is higher or one team is favored by a lot, then it will be more likely to have 3 straight scores.

Here is a chart for not three straight:

3 scores in game = 84%
4 scores  = 70%
5 = 60%
6 = 50%
7 = 42%
8 = 35%
9 = 29%
10 = 25%
11 = 21%
12 = 17%
13 = 15%
14 = 12%





 
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Posted: #18
[Quote: Originally Posted by Ed-Collins] Whoops.

I really wish this site would allow one to edit your prior post, within a minute or so after you posted it, to correct typos and other mistakes.  Sigh...

[/Quote

Regardless Ed those titttties are huge....

You learn more from losing than winning. You learn how to keep going.
 
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Posted: #19
Quote Originally Posted by thorpe:

This comes up every year.  Here is how the math works:

Thanks. 

The tricky part is determining what the exact chances are of the second team scoring after the first team scores.  You mentioned 60%.  How was that percentage arrived at?  Is that based upon a bunch of prior data?  Why not 55% or 65%, for example.

Also, I agree halftime definitely plays a part in the equation.  If a team scores at the end of the second quarter, they might also get the ball first in the third quarter, resulting in two consecutive possessions for them.  But how much of a factor does this contribute to our equation?

In the Super Bowl line that I gave above, from last year's Super Bowl, YES was listed at -180.  So let's do the math. 

If you like the YES, in order for this to be a profitable bet for you, YES would have to occur 65 percent of the time:

65 wins at +100 = $6,500.00
35 losses at -180 = -$6,300.00
Profit of $200.00 after 100 such bets.

If you like the NO, you need to win this 39% of the time, at +160, to make a small profit:

39 wins at +160 = $6,240.00
61 losses at -100 = -$6,100.00
Profit of $140.00 after 100 such bets.

 
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Posted: #20
Using the original poster's odds (yes = -221 and no = +186) for the game he was looking at, you have to:

win a full 69% of the time if you like YES. 
and only win 35% of the time if you like NO.
 
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Posted: #21
I bet this prop all the time, especially during the playoffs...

It is very profitable

Usually, the only time it bites you in the behind, is when a team who scores before half received the ball to start the 2nd half...

It hits very well during the playoffs, as most teams can score once in every 3 possessions 
 
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Posted: #22
Two Fg's and a TD not in these games this weekend
DM
 
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Posted: #23
Quote Originally Posted by Ed-Collins:


Thanks. 

The tricky part is determining what the exact chances are of the second team scoring after the first team scores.  You mentioned 60%.  How was that percentage arrived at?  Is that based upon a bunch of prior data?  Why not 55% or 65%, for example.


I estimated it.


I wasn't trying to prove anything, just showing how the math works. You need to plug in your own numbers for # of scores, percent chance next team scores, adjustment for half time, adjustment for one team being favored, etc.

A lot of people thought the odds were reversed, but if you plug in reasonable numbers for the above you'll get pretty much what the book is offering.
 
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Posted: #24
Quote Originally Posted by LETGOPACK1234:

I bet this prop all the time, especially during the playoffs...

It is very profitable

Usually, the only time it bites you in the behind, is when a team who scores before half received the ball to start the 2nd half...

It hits very well during the playoffs, as most teams can score once in every 3 possessions 

Well, NO certainly wasn't profitable in the playoffs in 2013 or 2012.  I just checked.

In 2013, out of the 11 playoff games, YES (three or more consecutive scores) happened 10 out of 11 times.

In 2012 YES happened 8 out of 11 times.

That's 18 out of 22 playoff games during this two-year span.

I haven't checked any other years yet.

2013
Yes Chiefs (33) at Colts (45)
Yes Saints (26 at Eagles (24)
Yes Chargers (27) at Bengals (10)
No 49ers (23) at Packers (20)
-----------------------------------
Yes Saints (15) at Seahawks (23)
Yes Colts (22) at Pats (43)
Yes 49ers (23) at Panthers (10)
Yes Chargers (17) at Broncos (24)
-----------------------------------
Yes Pats (16) at Broncos (26)
Yes 49ers (17 at Seahawks (23)
-----------------------------------
Yes Seahawks (43) at Broncos (8)


2012
No Bengals (13) at Texans (19)
Yes Vikings (10 at Packers (24)
No Colts (9) at Ravens (24)
Yes Seahawks (24) at Redskins (14)
-----------------------------------
No Ravens (38) at Broncos (35)
Yes Packers (31 at 49ers (45)
Yes Seahawks (28) at Falcons (30)
Yes Texans (28) at Pats (41)
-----------------------------------
Yes 49ers (28) at Falcons (24)
Yes Ravens (28) at Pats (13)
-----------------------------------
Yes Ravens (34) at 49ers (31)

 
 
Captain
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Posted: #25
All four games this weekend were a winner for YES.  
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