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Divisional Round Playoffs and Sloppy Steaks....

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Posted: #76

Quote Originally Posted by Jahwalleye1:

@vanzack  Sorry don't understand the " Sloppy Steaks " tks pls explain and GL

 

Google it

 
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Posted: #77

@vanzack

 GL Van the man!..an_cheers

 
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Posted: #78

@vanzack

I’m in total agreement with your analysis on TB-Det but would like to hear more of your logic on Balt being your top pick. Balt already lost to Indy and nearly lost to the Rams at home. Hou is clearly better than Indy. They shouldn’t have the same limitations as TB has against Det. Balt’s ATS history off a BYE is horrible and this game is essentially off a double bye for Lamar. Balt has a few guys out this week like Humphrey and Hou is fairly healthy. Lastly, Hou has already played at Balt this year in Week 1 so they know the scheme and what to expect. Why wouldn’t Hou be the play?

 
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Posted: #79

@vanzack

 Have you looked into GB team Total Over, or GB +3 first Quarter considering they opted to take ball last week vs Dallas?

 

I estimate they have a 75% chance at starting on offense this week, so Over .5 (-135) 1st quarter points seems good. Have also taken +3 and considering SF Under 6.5 +135. 

 

No guarantee Lafleur takes ball again, but we know SF will defer if they win toss. What's best way to bet this possible angle?

 
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Posted: #80

Quote Originally Posted by Coversloserzzz:

Well it has to be 1 road winner and KC makes the most sense. I also liked all the chalks. Guess you have up on buffalo. You don't play totals? Obviously,  you like the niners team total over

Does it really?

 
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Posted: #81

Good Luck Van, I like the card.

I'm just nervous with all this bagel talk, hopefully not a bad omen.

peace_5

 
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Posted: #82

Quote Originally Posted by Shabazlyq:

@brn2loslive2win   Quote Originally Posted by brn2loslive2win: @vanzack  Something I’ve been thinking about lately- I’ll use the Tampa/Detroit game as an example. If the lines available to me are Tampa +6.5 -110 or Tampa +6 +100. In a situation like this I assume that you would play it as a 6.75 with an average -105. Instead of this do you think it’s better to just put the whole bet on +6?  The way I see it is that if it’s a 7 point Detroit win, I lose either way. The only drawback is obviously that in a 6 point game I push whereas the 6.5 bettors win. Seeing as only a small percentage of games land on a 6 point margin, is it better to make the bet on 6 with no juice? Why bother paying for 6.5 or 6.75? Again, at 7 the bet is a loser anyway, so why not just make the bet with zero vig? Maybe it’s silly to trade off a possible win for a push (on a 6 point game obviously) but in the long term is it better to be paying no vig and trade off the occasional push for a win?   Lemme take a crack: First off, +6 +100, there's still vig. Even though you're receiving 100% of your bet, there's still vig you're giving up in the range between the +100 and whatever -negative number you see for the -6 Detroit line (only saying all this to help reframe your perspective on value/lines/price/etc.). That's like saying there's no vig on betting red in roulette. Even though you're getting "even money", you're not getting exactly true odds in return, and the vig is hidden within the green numbers at the table (in simple terms). As for 6vs6.25, it boils down to long term value betting that +6.25 (-105) than +6.0 (+100). If Van, for example, liked a +6.25(-105) play more than a +6(+100) play, I guarantee you he's done the math of what the long term value would be if he put the entire wager on the +6 instead of getting the +6.25. And he decided there's long term value (over thousands of plays) receiving 5% less than even money. That's not to say every 6.25vs6.0 situation means there's more value on the 6.25.  You just have to do your own calculation. First layer would be looking at key numbers throughout the NFL and where they land. Second layer would apply a normal distribution to the results you see in this game, and see if it's weighted more in any other key numbers, or spread out in a way that says that extra 5% you'd receive in all non-6point Detroit winning finals OUTWEIGHS the moments (although 'rare' as they might seem) when you pushed when you could have received half a win (nearly 50% more return than the push).

Great answer.

Thanks for posting!

an_praise

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Posted: #83

Quote Originally Posted by Kaufee:

VZ, I love the plays and I love your threads! On all 4 with you. Thanks for the work and entertainment. P.S. I had a breakfast sandwich with ham, eggs, & cheese on a bagel this morning.... My plate was a mess after one bite

an_roll_laughan_cheers

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Posted: #84

Quote Originally Posted by River_fish:

Some scary trends to consider in the DIVISIONAL round. In the last 20 years favorites have only covered ATS 42% of the time. Number one seeds are only 35% ATS Favorites less than 10 points are a weak 10 and 25 against the spread.

20 year trends are about as useful to me as astrology.

peace_5

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Posted: #85

Quote Originally Posted by williamwallace:

You posted the juice????  I cant believe you caved to the haters! And to think i used to respect you… Judt kidding, thanks for paying my rent again this year…if you ever need an apprentice, either for crunching numbers or oiling down models LMK

an_roll_laughthumbs_up

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Posted: #86

Quote Originally Posted by iceman67:

I can't remember which talking head said it during last week's Lions game, but he said that the coach (Campbell) made a choice before the season that they were going to commit to being the best at one aspect of the game as far as their defense was concerned, and that was to stop the run.  I thought that was great info, who admits to that, and sticks to it?  One of Vanzack's posts in this thread pretty much says the same thing.   Can Mayfield hook up with Evans, Goodwin, or Otton and be good  for at least 4 Td's (or punch-in tds)?  Maybe (25%)  maybe not (75%) IMO. Evans though, is a risk/problem  against this pass defense, just not a real DEEP THREAT one IMO. The place could be pure bedlam noise-wise when Det. gets ahead. I think the Lions run it up a little bit,  34-17

Good analysis.

goodpost

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Posted: #87

Quote Originally Posted by TigerwillReturn:

@vanzack I’m in total agreement with your analysis on TB-Det but would like to hear more of your logic on Balt being your top pick. Balt already lost to Indy and nearly lost to the Rams at home. Hou is clearly better than Indy. They shouldn’t have the same limitations as TB has against Det. Balt’s ATS history off a BYE is horrible and this game is essentially off a double bye for Lamar. Balt has a few guys out this week like Humphrey and Hou is fairly healthy. Lastly, Hou has already played at Balt this year in Week 1 so they know the scheme and what to expect. Why wouldn’t Hou be the play?

Balt lost to Indy
Hou is better than Indy
Hou must beat Balt

That is as square as square can be.  Sorry.  I'm not really sure how to respond other than....

Balt beat SF
SF is better than Hou
Balt will beat Hou

an_cheers

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Posted: #88

Quote Originally Posted by Snake30:

@vanzack  Have you looked into GB team Total Over, or GB +3 first Quarter considering they opted to take ball last week vs Dallas?   I estimate they have a 75% chance at starting on offense this week, so Over .5 (-135) 1st quarter points seems good. Have also taken +3 and considering SF Under 6.5 +135.    No guarantee Lafleur takes ball again, but we know SF will defer if they win toss. What's best way to bet this possible angle?

Interesting.  I am uniquely obsessed with coaches who dont defer.  My first action of watching any football game is hoping like hell I am the team kicking off in the first half.

Maybe a GB 1st quarter bet?

an_cheers

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Posted: #89

Quote Originally Posted by undermysac:

Good Luck Van, I like the card. I'm just nervous with all this bagel talk, hopefully not a bad omen.

clover

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Posted: #90

Posted the juice lol. 

How much you taking off your Bills future? Think I may play some KC +2.5 and just hope for a middle. 

 
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Posted: #91

Quote Originally Posted by TigerwillReturn:

@vanzack I’m in total agreement with your analysis on TB-Det but would like to hear more of your logic on Balt being your top pick. Balt already lost to Indy and nearly lost to the Rams at home. Hou is clearly better than Indy. They shouldn’t have the same limitations as TB has against Det. Balt’s ATS history off a BYE is horrible and this game is essentially off a double bye for Lamar. Balt has a few guys out this week like Humphrey and Hou is fairly healthy. Lastly, Hou has already played at Balt this year in Week 1 so they know the scheme and what to expect. Why wouldn’t Hou be the play?

The Ravens lost to Indy do to bad clock management late...

Indy would have beat Houston if not a dropped pass on 4th down...

Houston better buckle up...an_wink

 
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Posted: #92

Quote Originally Posted by Jahwalleye1:

@vanzack  Sorry don't understand the " Sloppy Steaks " tks pls explain and GL

I'm with you. New to me. But if someone is tryna pour water on my steak or my McDonald's steak, egg and  bagel, I'm gonna throw down. new_laugh_cry

 
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Posted: #93

Quote Originally Posted by bagelbum:

Posted the juice lol.  How much you taking off your Bills future? Think I may play some KC +2.5 and just hope for a middle.

I ended up betting the -650 on the NO at Bookmaker for about half of what the winnings would be on Buffalo.

So I am in a position now if Buffalo loses I profit 2X my original wager amount, and if Buff wins the SB I profit about 18X my original wager amount.

 

peace_5

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Posted: #94

Alright then. I'm going to jump off the dumbass " Bagel " talk. I think your pics look solid. But in all my 85 years I've neva seen two exact spread ( 9.5 ) favorites cover on the same day. And I hope the one that doesn't is San Francisco peace_5

 
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Posted: #95

Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

20 year trends are about as useful to me as astrology.

Dumb take. There are trends (Twin Peaks angle stands out) that are highly valuable in NFL betting because they hit consistently. They hit consistently because time and again the market overreacts to certain situations that happen repeatedly over the years, and even if the teams are different, the outcomes are the same.

 
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Posted: #96

Quote Originally Posted by garbagetime:

Quote Originally Posted by vanzack: 20 year trends are about as useful to me as astrology. Dumb take. There are trends (Twin Peaks angle stands out) that are highly valuable in NFL betting because they hit consistently. They hit consistently because time and again the market overreacts to certain situations that happen repeatedly over the years, and even if the teams are different, the outcomes are the same.
......and yet nobody has become a billionaire betting on these trends.....situations may be the same, but all the the faces change over 20 years.....

 
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Posted: #97

Quote Originally Posted by TRAIN69:

Quote Originally Posted by garbagetime: Quote Originally Posted by vanzack: 20 year trends are about as useful to me as astrology. Dumb take. There are trends (Twin Peaks angle stands out) that are highly valuable in NFL betting because they hit consistently. They hit consistently because time and again the market overreacts to certain situations that happen repeatedly over the years, and even if the teams are different, the outcomes are the same.......and yet nobody has become a billionaire betting on these trends.....situations may be the same, but all the the faces change over 20 years.....

Nobody has yet become a billionaire betting on the NFL at all. Twin Peaks hits at 75% or something. There are exceedingly valuable trends, so one shouldn't dismiss them all with a wave of the hand.

 
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Posted: #98

Chalk it up.  

 

Let's go whiners and all them other plays from you.  

This brother is hard to die.  an_cheers

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Posted: #99

@vanzack

 I doubt I’ll get a reply before the game starts but it’s the second part of my question I’m looking for your input on. What part of this Balt-Hou matchup do you consider to be a glaring weakness (i.e like making TB one-dimensional is a huge advantage for Det)? I don’t see the same weakness for Hou here and Balt’s ATS history off a bye is truly hideous. This game should be close.

 
 
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Posted: #100

@vanzack

 0-4 Damn thats bad

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