Quote Originally Posted by River_fish: Some scary trends to consider in the DIVISIONAL round. In the last 20 years favorites have only covered ATS 42% of the time. Number one seeds are only 35% ATS Favorites less than 10 points are a weak 10 and 25 against the spread. 20 year trends are about as useful to me as astrology.
Aren't you a 20 year trend on Covers. GL on the plays.
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Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:
Quote Originally Posted by River_fish: Some scary trends to consider in the DIVISIONAL round. In the last 20 years favorites have only covered ATS 42% of the time. Number one seeds are only 35% ATS Favorites less than 10 points are a weak 10 and 25 against the spread. 20 year trends are about as useful to me as astrology.
Aren't you a 20 year trend on Covers. GL on the plays.
@vanzack Sorry don't understand the " Sloppy Steaks " tks pls explain and GL
Do yourself a favor and watch all the I Think You Should Leave by Tim Robinson sketches on either Netflix or Youtube. It's why SNL sucks now, because they let talent like this go and hire a bunch of woke writers who are afraid to offend anyone outside of Weekend Update.
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Quote Originally Posted by Jahwalleye1:
@vanzack Sorry don't understand the " Sloppy Steaks " tks pls explain and GL
Do yourself a favor and watch all the I Think You Should Leave by Tim Robinson sketches on either Netflix or Youtube. It's why SNL sucks now, because they let talent like this go and hire a bunch of woke writers who are afraid to offend anyone outside of Weekend Update.
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack: 20 year trends are about as useful to me as astrology. Dumb take. There are trends (Twin Peaks angle stands out) that are highly valuable in NFL betting because they hit consistently. They hit consistently because time and again the market overreacts to certain situations that happen repeatedly over the years, and even if the teams are different, the outcomes are the same.
I will be watching this 20 year trend system closely.
Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
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Quote Originally Posted by garbagetime:
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack: 20 year trends are about as useful to me as astrology. Dumb take. There are trends (Twin Peaks angle stands out) that are highly valuable in NFL betting because they hit consistently. They hit consistently because time and again the market overreacts to certain situations that happen repeatedly over the years, and even if the teams are different, the outcomes are the same.
I will be watching this 20 year trend system closely.
@vanzack I doubt I’ll get a reply before the game starts but it’s the second part of my question I’m looking for your input on. What part of this Balt-Hou matchup do you consider to be a glaring weakness (i.e like making TB one-dimensional is a huge advantage for Det)? I don’t see the same weakness for Hou here and Balt’s ATS history off a bye is truly hideous. This game should be close.
The Texans offense is good when they are able to throw, and throw for explosive plays. In the most recent 7 regular season games - the Texans offense is 23rd (adjusted) passing and 25th rushing. They haven't really been able to establish a rushing game all season - and I really dont see them being able to start that against the Ravens today.
So if you are betting the Texans, your offensive hope lies on Stroud exploiting the Ravens in 20 degree weather and 15 MPH winds, with a depleted (could be debated) receiving group. OK - its a 10 point spread - I understand those who think they will keep it close. But is this where you want your money?
So I have the Texans scoring 14ish. On the other side - the Ravens downfall could be if they cant run the ball at all. The Texans have arguably the best rushing defense in the NFL, and you could make the argument that if the Ravens become one dimensional that Lamar could turn it over or not be effective. But the Texans just havent proven that they can stop the passing game against good QBs, and I dont expect that to change today.
So very simple analysis - Texans will be throwing a lot, Ravens should be throwing a lot - and I see a 31 - 14 type of final.
GL
Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
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Quote Originally Posted by TigerwillReturn:
@vanzack I doubt I’ll get a reply before the game starts but it’s the second part of my question I’m looking for your input on. What part of this Balt-Hou matchup do you consider to be a glaring weakness (i.e like making TB one-dimensional is a huge advantage for Det)? I don’t see the same weakness for Hou here and Balt’s ATS history off a bye is truly hideous. This game should be close.
The Texans offense is good when they are able to throw, and throw for explosive plays. In the most recent 7 regular season games - the Texans offense is 23rd (adjusted) passing and 25th rushing. They haven't really been able to establish a rushing game all season - and I really dont see them being able to start that against the Ravens today.
So if you are betting the Texans, your offensive hope lies on Stroud exploiting the Ravens in 20 degree weather and 15 MPH winds, with a depleted (could be debated) receiving group. OK - its a 10 point spread - I understand those who think they will keep it close. But is this where you want your money?
So I have the Texans scoring 14ish. On the other side - the Ravens downfall could be if they cant run the ball at all. The Texans have arguably the best rushing defense in the NFL, and you could make the argument that if the Ravens become one dimensional that Lamar could turn it over or not be effective. But the Texans just havent proven that they can stop the passing game against good QBs, and I dont expect that to change today.
So very simple analysis - Texans will be throwing a lot, Ravens should be throwing a lot - and I see a 31 - 14 type of final.
Quote Originally Posted by Jahwalleye1: @vanzack Sorry don't understand the " Sloppy Steaks " tks pls explain and GL Do yourself a favor and watch all the I Think You Should Leave by Tim Robinson sketches on either Netflix or Youtube. It's why SNL sucks now, because they let talent like this go and hire a bunch of woke writers who are afraid to offend anyone outside of Weekend Update.
Take an edible, put this show on. Guaranteed banger of a night.
Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
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Quote Originally Posted by fsutomahawk:
Quote Originally Posted by Jahwalleye1: @vanzack Sorry don't understand the " Sloppy Steaks " tks pls explain and GL Do yourself a favor and watch all the I Think You Should Leave by Tim Robinson sketches on either Netflix or Youtube. It's why SNL sucks now, because they let talent like this go and hire a bunch of woke writers who are afraid to offend anyone outside of Weekend Update.
Take an edible, put this show on. Guaranteed banger of a night.
@vanzack People can change. i used to be a piece of shit. spiked up blonde hair, little bitty jeans, chicken spaghetti at chiccolinis. people can change. Let the boy hold the baby
Exactly. I also believe people can change.
Chicken Spaghetti.
Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
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Quote Originally Posted by Gemelli:
@vanzack People can change. i used to be a piece of shit. spiked up blonde hair, little bitty jeans, chicken spaghetti at chiccolinis. people can change. Let the boy hold the baby
Quote Originally Posted by fsutomahawk: Quote Originally Posted by Jahwalleye1: @vanzack Sorry don't understand the " Sloppy Steaks " tks pls explain and GL Do yourself a favor and watch all the I Think You Should Leave by Tim Robinson sketches on either Netflix or Youtube. It's why SNL sucks now, because they let talent like this go and hire a bunch of woke writers who are afraid to offend anyone outside of Weekend Update. Take an edible, put this show on. Guaranteed banger of a night.
Any edible type/brand/amount etc you recommend? I'm totally out of the loop when it comes to that stuff.....
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Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:
Quote Originally Posted by fsutomahawk: Quote Originally Posted by Jahwalleye1: @vanzack Sorry don't understand the " Sloppy Steaks " tks pls explain and GL Do yourself a favor and watch all the I Think You Should Leave by Tim Robinson sketches on either Netflix or Youtube. It's why SNL sucks now, because they let talent like this go and hire a bunch of woke writers who are afraid to offend anyone outside of Weekend Update. Take an edible, put this show on. Guaranteed banger of a night.
Any edible type/brand/amount etc you recommend? I'm totally out of the loop when it comes to that stuff.....
Ha ha. This I know something about. If you live in a legal state, go to the dispensary. The people are incredibly helpful. There are many excellent brands. The are two strains: indica (AKA in the couch) will generally have a sedative effect. Sativa generally perks you up - people take them to go hiking, for example. And then there are hybrid strains of the 2. I like Indica because I am not a good sleeper.
I live in a non-legal state but order 'legal" weed in the form of Delta 9 and or Delta 8 on line. These edibles are also referred to as "weed light" and will get you high, but can be legally sold under the 2018 Farm Bill which eliminated the cannabinoids in hemp from the definition of marijuana in the Controlled Substances Act so long as it contains than 0.3% THC by dry weight.
With the online sites for legal weed, the most important thing, IMO, is to make sure that the manufacturer undergoes third party lab testing as you don't want to ingest solvents or other nasty ingredients which are used to convert the THC into the edible.
Obv, this is over-simplified, but I wish you good luck.
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@TRAIN69
Ha ha. This I know something about. If you live in a legal state, go to the dispensary. The people are incredibly helpful. There are many excellent brands. The are two strains: indica (AKA in the couch) will generally have a sedative effect. Sativa generally perks you up - people take them to go hiking, for example. And then there are hybrid strains of the 2. I like Indica because I am not a good sleeper.
I live in a non-legal state but order 'legal" weed in the form of Delta 9 and or Delta 8 on line. These edibles are also referred to as "weed light" and will get you high, but can be legally sold under the 2018 Farm Bill which eliminated the cannabinoids in hemp from the definition of marijuana in the Controlled Substances Act so long as it contains than 0.3% THC by dry weight.
With the online sites for legal weed, the most important thing, IMO, is to make sure that the manufacturer undergoes third party lab testing as you don't want to ingest solvents or other nasty ingredients which are used to convert the THC into the edible.
Obv, this is over-simplified, but I wish you good luck.
I've got an edible recommendation for you. Starfire.donuts or superchillaf hash rosin-infused edibles. Both taste great and smack hard! Check out the Instagram handles if you're interested, Train.
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@TRAIN69
I've got an edible recommendation for you. Starfire.donuts or superchillaf hash rosin-infused edibles. Both taste great and smack hard! Check out the Instagram handles if you're interested, Train.
Bit of a crazy story.... I have heard that Mattress Mack has bet a big amount on Houston today through ESPN Bet. ESPN Bet is now offering a "boost" if you bet the Ravens. You can bet Balt -9.5 +110, and -10.5 +140 - FOR NO LIMITS. This has ripple effects to the marketplace at large.
THis kinda stuff makes me crazy - so ya think Mattress Mack's big action play is with ESPN or at least they are holding a sizable piece? Looks like the two baltimore offers are syaing maybe yes :)
OK I got a crazy play on this game BAL 1H -5.5 and HOU +9.5 FG
I hit these every now and then 1H and FG opposite sides. I see a confused HOU that adjust in 2nd Half and back doors. 9.5 is a lot of points for a team not named San Francisco 49ers.
LOVE SF.
BOL Van
The pen is mightier than the pigs
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Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:
Bit of a crazy story.... I have heard that Mattress Mack has bet a big amount on Houston today through ESPN Bet. ESPN Bet is now offering a "boost" if you bet the Ravens. You can bet Balt -9.5 +110, and -10.5 +140 - FOR NO LIMITS. This has ripple effects to the marketplace at large.
THis kinda stuff makes me crazy - so ya think Mattress Mack's big action play is with ESPN or at least they are holding a sizable piece? Looks like the two baltimore offers are syaing maybe yes :)
OK I got a crazy play on this game BAL 1H -5.5 and HOU +9.5 FG
I hit these every now and then 1H and FG opposite sides. I see a confused HOU that adjust in 2nd Half and back doors. 9.5 is a lot of points for a team not named San Francisco 49ers.
The Texans blitzed more than they have all year in the first half, and you can tell the Ravens had a game plan of longer developing routes. Needless to say they weren't successful at all.
Right when Harbaugh said it in halftime interview that Lamar was going to be better this half, I was excited to see the first play a very quick pass. I expect that all half. Quick developing routes with quick decisions by Lamar either to run or pass.
Still feeling okay about the minus 10. Would have been nice to have more than a half to cover, but I think they'll make the changes
Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
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The Texans blitzed more than they have all year in the first half, and you can tell the Ravens had a game plan of longer developing routes. Needless to say they weren't successful at all.
Right when Harbaugh said it in halftime interview that Lamar was going to be better this half, I was excited to see the first play a very quick pass. I expect that all half. Quick developing routes with quick decisions by Lamar either to run or pass.
Still feeling okay about the minus 10. Would have been nice to have more than a half to cover, but I think they'll make the changes
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