Divisional Round Playoffs and Sloppy Steaks....

best of luck van.

i like Balt.  i dont think the Houston offense will find it as easy to score here, though they have shown improvement everywhere.  i'm impressed with what they have shown this year.  tough spot for them though and I expect Balt to learn from past mistakes with their MVP qb

i think i like Detroit here.  TB just lucked out by facing a terrible Philly team that had already quit weeks ago.  TB defense is doing good but wont be enough for Detroits offense.  Detroit's defense is pretty bad but Baker+company are not that awesome IMO (see the Saints and Carolina games of late).  They scored on Philly but that defense is by far the worst in the league

No idea what to think of SF/GB.  SF should win and GB wont find it as easy this week like they did against Dallas, but I'm impressed with how they are playing.  SF rest, coaching and star players should get them to the NFC championship game.  10 is a lot here against a solid team like GB

I definitely think Buffalo wins/covers over KC.  KC stumbled to the finish line and had a fortunate wild card matchup. that was a bad spot for Miami with injuries, travel and extremely cold weather.  Much tougher game here with a Buffalo offense (and really a team) humming along and good home field advantage.  There's only so much Mahomes and that defense can do. Without good WRs the Chefs wont be able to keep up.  

@vanzack

 9 -108

8.5 -113

8 - 120

BUT

best available Pack #s is 

+9 -102

+8.5 +103

+8 +108

So I could put out anywhere in bewltween and see what get matched

So Tampa cannot run the ball (bottom 5), and the Lions have a top 5 rushing defense.  Forget about the Eagles game.  Look back at the Bucs rushing since their run began against the Panthers (first game) 6 games ago.

In that time, the Bucs are 23rd in DVOA rushing the ball, and the Lions are 4th stopping the run.

Lets not forget who the Bucs have played in that time:  Panthers twice, Saints, Jax, ATL, PHI, and GB.  

So my assumption is that the Lions wont be able to run - and will need to be one dimensional against the Lions.  So for me - this game boils down to if the Lions can stop their usual poor passing defense if they know that it is coming?  They have a good pass rush - and should make Baker make quick throws - where he struggles.  But the Lions do give up explosive pass plays at an alarming rate.

To me - this is the key to the game.  The Lions will put up 24-28 points minimum.  Can the defense stop a one dimensional Baker Mayfield?  Thats my bet.

I would lay the 9.5 at -103

Great wrietups.

Cant argue with any of that.

GL this weekend.

Are you on an exchange?

Yes. Peer to peer 

Hold on !!! Don't be bad mouthing one of my favorite breakfast sandwiches ( steak, egg and cheese bagel from Mickey D's ). Lol !  I do find it interesting you got both 9.5 favorites covering. It usually doesn't work that way. But good luck on your entire card 

Well, you already have the gold.

Anything I tell you is like bringing sand to the beach.

McD bagels are some soft bun like creation that is undersized width.

A true bagel - like a NYC bagel - is too dense and too big to put anything in between and get your mouth around it.

The other problem is that whatever is in the middle slides out the back when you try to dislocate your jaw like a snake to take your first bite.

G8RB8 said it perfectly - bagels are great, sandwiches are great - but bagel sandwiches suck.

Tampa already played them at home....

Baker was no bueno....

7 points....

Tampa already played them at home....

Baker was no bueno....

7 points....

 my wife agrees

Yeah - week 6.

I try to discount that - almost like a different season.  But they did only run for 46 yds and Baker was poor.

I didn’t think Buffalo Bills would get here but they surprised me.. I was actually shocked to see you on Kansas City..
Good Luck this week Vanzack

Rachaad *sometimes* can run. I watched two games down the stretch (Packers and Jags) where Mayfield was the story, with (GB) or without (Jax) White putting up much yardage.

You think is slicked back?

This is puuushed back!!

Good luck you piece of shit!

B O L

P A L

So f*cking true, thanks for the laugh.  

@vanzack

 Do you think that Tampa’s blitz heavy style will disrupt the Lions passing game? Jared Goff, although a good QB, tends to be the type that just folds up when the pressure gets near him. In a clean pocket he’s great, but basically the same mobility as a Tom Brady. You know the statue type. I’m on Tampa thinking that they can rattle Goff enough to maybe get a few turnovers and keep it a close game. 

If you’re on Detroit are you thinking this won’t be the case?

@vanzack

 Something I’ve been thinking about lately-

I’ll use the Tampa/Detroit game as an example.

If the lines available to me are Tampa +6.5 -110 or Tampa +6 +100. In a situation like this I assume that you would play it as a 6.75 with an average -105. Instead of this do you think it’s better to just put the whole bet on +6?

 The way I see it is that if it’s a 7 point Detroit win, I lose either way. The only drawback is obviously that in a 6 point game I push whereas the 6.5 bettors win. Seeing as only a small percentage of games land on a 6 point margin, is it better to make the bet on 6 with no juice? Why bother paying for 6.5 or 6.75? Again, at 7 the bet is a loser anyway, so why not just make the bet with zero vig? Maybe it’s silly to trade off a possible win for a push (on a 6 point game obviously) but in the long term is it better to be paying no vig and trade off the occasional push for a win?