@vanzack Something I’ve been thinking about lately- I’ll use the Tampa/Detroit game as an example. If the lines available to me are Tampa +6.5 -110 or Tampa +6 +100. In a situation like this I assume that you would play it as a 6.75 with an average -105. Instead of this do you think it’s better to just put the whole bet on +6? The way I see it is that if it’s a 7 point Detroit win, I lose either way. The only drawback is obviously that in a 6 point game I push whereas the 6.5 bettors win. Seeing as only a small percentage of games land on a 6 point margin, is it better to make the bet on 6 with no juice? Why bother paying for 6.5 or 6.75? Again, at 7 the bet is a loser anyway, so why not just make the bet with zero vig? Maybe it’s silly to trade off a possible win for a push (on a 6 point game obviously) but in the long term is it better to be paying no vig and trade off the occasional push for a win?
Lemme take a crack:
First off, +6 +100, there's still vig. Even though you're receiving 100% of your bet, there's still vig you're giving up in the range between the +100 and whatever -negative number you see for the -6 Detroit line (only saying all this to help reframe your perspective on value/lines/price/etc.). That's like saying there's no vig on betting red in roulette. Even though you're getting "even money", you're not getting exactly true odds in return, and the vig is hidden within the green numbers at the table (in simple terms).
As for 6vs6.25, it boils down to long term value betting that +6.25 (-105) than +6.0 (+100). If Van, for example, liked a +6.25(-105) play more than a +6(+100) play, I guarantee you he's done the math of what the long term value would be if he put the entire wager on the +6 instead of getting the +6.25. And he decided there's long term value (over thousands of plays) receiving 5% less than even money. That's not to say every 6.25vs6.0 situation means there's more value on the 6.25.
You just have to do your own calculation. First layer would be looking at key numbers throughout the NFL and where they land. Second layer would apply a normal distribution to the results you see in this game, and see if it's weighted more in any other key numbers, or spread out in a way that says that extra 5% you'd receive in all non-6point Detroit winning finals OUTWEIGHS the moments (although 'rare' as they might seem) when you pushed when you could have received half a win (nearly 50% more return than the push).
2
@brn2loslive2win
Quote Originally Posted by brn2loslive2win:
@vanzack Something I’ve been thinking about lately- I’ll use the Tampa/Detroit game as an example. If the lines available to me are Tampa +6.5 -110 or Tampa +6 +100. In a situation like this I assume that you would play it as a 6.75 with an average -105. Instead of this do you think it’s better to just put the whole bet on +6? The way I see it is that if it’s a 7 point Detroit win, I lose either way. The only drawback is obviously that in a 6 point game I push whereas the 6.5 bettors win. Seeing as only a small percentage of games land on a 6 point margin, is it better to make the bet on 6 with no juice? Why bother paying for 6.5 or 6.75? Again, at 7 the bet is a loser anyway, so why not just make the bet with zero vig? Maybe it’s silly to trade off a possible win for a push (on a 6 point game obviously) but in the long term is it better to be paying no vig and trade off the occasional push for a win?
Lemme take a crack:
First off, +6 +100, there's still vig. Even though you're receiving 100% of your bet, there's still vig you're giving up in the range between the +100 and whatever -negative number you see for the -6 Detroit line (only saying all this to help reframe your perspective on value/lines/price/etc.). That's like saying there's no vig on betting red in roulette. Even though you're getting "even money", you're not getting exactly true odds in return, and the vig is hidden within the green numbers at the table (in simple terms).
As for 6vs6.25, it boils down to long term value betting that +6.25 (-105) than +6.0 (+100). If Van, for example, liked a +6.25(-105) play more than a +6(+100) play, I guarantee you he's done the math of what the long term value would be if he put the entire wager on the +6 instead of getting the +6.25. And he decided there's long term value (over thousands of plays) receiving 5% less than even money. That's not to say every 6.25vs6.0 situation means there's more value on the 6.25.
You just have to do your own calculation. First layer would be looking at key numbers throughout the NFL and where they land. Second layer would apply a normal distribution to the results you see in this game, and see if it's weighted more in any other key numbers, or spread out in a way that says that extra 5% you'd receive in all non-6point Detroit winning finals OUTWEIGHS the moments (although 'rare' as they might seem) when you pushed when you could have received half a win (nearly 50% more return than the push).
And KC impressed you against a bunch of dead fishes? I think it's payback time, we're suffering from Chiefs' fatigue with Swift and Kelce/Mahomes on every commercial, time for Buffalo to at least get to the AFC Championship Game.
Buffalo finally gets them at home, first road playoff game for KC in at least 5 or 6 years. Different environment. Chiefs still very limited in weapons, perhaps Buffalo injuries put them at a disadvantage? I can't get the vision of the Chiefs on Christmas out of my head, they were beyond pitiful. What's changed since then? I just don't believe KC is just gonna turn it on offensively with the current set of playmakers, it's not their year. I just hope for good games this weekend.
0
@vgb824
And KC impressed you against a bunch of dead fishes? I think it's payback time, we're suffering from Chiefs' fatigue with Swift and Kelce/Mahomes on every commercial, time for Buffalo to at least get to the AFC Championship Game.
Buffalo finally gets them at home, first road playoff game for KC in at least 5 or 6 years. Different environment. Chiefs still very limited in weapons, perhaps Buffalo injuries put them at a disadvantage? I can't get the vision of the Chiefs on Christmas out of my head, they were beyond pitiful. What's changed since then? I just don't believe KC is just gonna turn it on offensively with the current set of playmakers, it's not their year. I just hope for good games this weekend.
First off thank you for correcting me on the 6.25 which is what I meant to say. And I do understand what you’re saying about the built in vig and the comparison to a roulette wheel. Good response and again I’ve thought about this to some extent. I’m just thinking about these games where it’s not exactly a key number. Thanks again for the response. Interested to hear vans take.
1
@Shabazlyq
First off thank you for correcting me on the 6.25 which is what I meant to say. And I do understand what you’re saying about the built in vig and the comparison to a roulette wheel. Good response and again I’ve thought about this to some extent. I’m just thinking about these games where it’s not exactly a key number. Thanks again for the response. Interested to hear vans take.
I appreciate you posting. Even though they've been one of the best teams this year, I really have a hard time backing BAL. Based on years of history, I just don't trust LJ or Harbaugh in this spot. I also hate when an elite athlete like LJ gets sidelined for a couple of weeks - he could come out like a well-rested, well oiled machine or like a rusty tractor. I could easily see a scenario where HOU comes out and punches BAL right in the mouth right off the bat and they spend the rest of the game trying to recover. With that being said, I also can't back HOU in this spot. Yes, HOU has gotten lucky more than their share and they've probably gotten a few more wins than they deserved. And I see the DVOA difference clearly, but 9.5 points? With plenty of injuries on both teams? I just don't see any value on either side. Can you please elaborate more on your BAL pick?
God is great, beer is good, and people are crazy.
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@vanzack
I appreciate you posting. Even though they've been one of the best teams this year, I really have a hard time backing BAL. Based on years of history, I just don't trust LJ or Harbaugh in this spot. I also hate when an elite athlete like LJ gets sidelined for a couple of weeks - he could come out like a well-rested, well oiled machine or like a rusty tractor. I could easily see a scenario where HOU comes out and punches BAL right in the mouth right off the bat and they spend the rest of the game trying to recover. With that being said, I also can't back HOU in this spot. Yes, HOU has gotten lucky more than their share and they've probably gotten a few more wins than they deserved. And I see the DVOA difference clearly, but 9.5 points? With plenty of injuries on both teams? I just don't see any value on either side. Can you please elaborate more on your BAL pick?
Quote Originally Posted by befus: Excellent, had all of them with the exception of KC. Tough road environment, and if they take away Rice it could be interesting to see how they achieve balance. Kelce being his old self would obviously help. Not sure how THIS buffalo defense can take away anything. The way I see Buffalo covering is by putting up a really big number. Like 31. I learned my lesson with the Dolphins last week - the replacement defense can only get you so far against elite offenses. I would love for it to be different. I have been riding the Bills and against KC for the most part since Thanksgiving. I have the Bills to win the SB at 38-1. I just cant see it this week.
0
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:
Quote Originally Posted by befus: Excellent, had all of them with the exception of KC. Tough road environment, and if they take away Rice it could be interesting to see how they achieve balance. Kelce being his old self would obviously help. Not sure how THIS buffalo defense can take away anything. The way I see Buffalo covering is by putting up a really big number. Like 31. I learned my lesson with the Dolphins last week - the replacement defense can only get you so far against elite offenses. I would love for it to be different. I have been riding the Bills and against KC for the most part since Thanksgiving. I have the Bills to win the SB at 38-1. I just cant see it this week.
You posted the juice???? I cant believe you caved to the haters! And to think i used to respect you… Judt kidding, thanks for paying my rent again this year…if you ever need an apprentice, either for crunching numbers or oiling down models LMK
Hahaha…great post sir William
The impossible only takes longer….
0
Quote Originally Posted by williamwallace:
You posted the juice???? I cant believe you caved to the haters! And to think i used to respect you… Judt kidding, thanks for paying my rent again this year…if you ever need an apprentice, either for crunching numbers or oiling down models LMK
Quote Originally Posted by GamzOver: The other problem is that whatever is in the middle slides out the back when you try to dislocate your jaw like a snake to take your first bite.
That's some funny funny stuff. You get the rare, and deserved 4 rollers,
I feel the same way about these obscene 2lb towers of hamburgers they pass off as an edible sandwich, or a hotdog w/ a porno sized dildo wiener in it. It's the close pin effect.
0
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:
Quote Originally Posted by GamzOver: The other problem is that whatever is in the middle slides out the back when you try to dislocate your jaw like a snake to take your first bite.
That's some funny funny stuff. You get the rare, and deserved 4 rollers,
I feel the same way about these obscene 2lb towers of hamburgers they pass off as an edible sandwich, or a hotdog w/ a porno sized dildo wiener in it. It's the close pin effect.
I can't remember which talking head said it during last week's Lions game, but he said that the coach (Campbell) made a choice before the season that they were going to commit to being the best at one aspect of the game as far as their defense was concerned, and that was to stop the run. I thought that was great info, who admits to that, and sticks to it? One of Vanzack's posts in this thread pretty much says the same thing.
Can Mayfield hook up with Evans, Goodwin, or Otton and be good for at least 4 Td's (or punch-in tds)? Maybe (25%) maybe not (75%) IMO. Evans though, is a risk/problem against this pass defense, just not a real DEEP THREAT one IMO.
The place could be pure bedlam noise-wise when Det. gets ahead.
I think the Lions run it up a little bit, 34-17
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I can't remember which talking head said it during last week's Lions game, but he said that the coach (Campbell) made a choice before the season that they were going to commit to being the best at one aspect of the game as far as their defense was concerned, and that was to stop the run. I thought that was great info, who admits to that, and sticks to it? One of Vanzack's posts in this thread pretty much says the same thing.
Can Mayfield hook up with Evans, Goodwin, or Otton and be good for at least 4 Td's (or punch-in tds)? Maybe (25%) maybe not (75%) IMO. Evans though, is a risk/problem against this pass defense, just not a real DEEP THREAT one IMO.
The place could be pure bedlam noise-wise when Det. gets ahead.
How many of us knew that this week will be the 1st time the Texans play a game under 30 degrees,, or 40 degrees,,,,, or 50 degrees? Food for thought or maybe naught.
0
How many of us knew that this week will be the 1st time the Texans play a game under 30 degrees,, or 40 degrees,,,,, or 50 degrees? Food for thought or maybe naught.
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