DK Super Bowl 54 -- Mega Finale Spectacular!

Question

Well, this is it fellas! We are down to the final game of the 100th NFL season! It's been one of the better and memorable seasons in my 10 years of NFL betting. We really couldn't ask for a better matchup with San Fran and Kansas City and a Super Bowl without New England for once! Hopefully, it won't be as boring as last year or one-sided like Super Bowl 50 was but I have a good feeling about this one..

I think we are going to have an entertaining and perhaps thrilling finish. I am going to go ahead and predict that this Super Bowl may rank up there with the Patriots vs Seahawks(which also had a very short line), and Colts vs Saints(also last time SB was in Miami) as one of the most competitive and closely contested Super Bowls in recent memory. These are the 2 games that come to mind when I think about how Super Bowl 54 might play out.

Like I mentioned before I already have future bets on both these teams, 49ers at 30/1 in September and Chiefs at 10/1 in October. Of course i would love the Niners to win, but doesnt mean I'll stop there. I'm still gonna try to cap to the best of my ability and offer my best take on this game. I really dont care who wins but like i said throughout this post I am expecting a good, clean, hard fought and fun game to watch. Maybe i shouldnt set the bar too high lol but anyway. I've already done my preliminary homework and I figured the best place to start is in the front lines. The O-lines and D-lines..

Over the next 100 posts i am going to break this game down piece by piece and offer you some juicy nuggets.

to be continued...

Digitalkarma · Accepted Answer

Well, this is it fellas! We are down to the final game of the 100th NFL season! It's been one of the better and memorable seasons in my 10 years of NFL betting. We really couldn't ask for a better matchup with San Fran and Kansas City and a Super Bowl without New England for once! Hopefully, it won't be as boring as last year or one-sided like Super Bowl 50 was but I have a good feeling about this one..

I think we are going to have an entertaining and perhaps thrilling finish. I am going to go ahead and predict that this Super Bowl may rank up there with the Patriots vs Seahawks(which also had a very short line), and Colts vs Saints(also last time SB was in Miami) as one of the most competitive and closely contested Super Bowls in recent memory. These are the 2 games that come to mind when I think about how Super Bowl 54 might play out.

Like I mentioned before I already have future bets on both these teams, 49ers at 30/1 in September and Chiefs at 10/1 in October. Of course i would love the Niners to win, but doesnt mean I'll stop there. I'm still gonna try to cap to the best of my ability and offer my best take on this game. I really dont care who wins but like i said throughout this post I am expecting a good, clean, hard fought and fun game to watch. Maybe i shouldnt set the bar too high lol but anyway. I've already done my preliminary homework and I figured the best place to start is in the front lines. The O-lines and D-lines..

Over the next 100 posts i am going to break this game down piece by piece and offer you some juicy nuggets.

to be continued...

Europa · Answer

I think we are going to have an entertaining and perhaps thrilling finish. I have been speculating on a three teams 10 points teaser for few days, DK.SF &#x2B;11KC &#x2B;9Over 44

DoubleUp4Life · Answer

This is my locals worst nightmare bet he said.  ...Best of luck Brothers

lajohn · Answer

...SPECTACULAR BET!!!!!

WISEGUY36 · Answer

I&#x27;m on this same Teaser as well . Good Luck

Digitalkarma · Answer

so i&#x27;ve been reading alot of discussion or debate rather, during the entire week regarding the 49ers D-line. One of the oft-repeated comments I keep seeing ishow in the world will Chiefs O-line hold up against such an relentless 49er pass rush?or.. Patrick Mahomes wont have time to throw and will be running for his life just like Cam Newton did against Denver!The 49ers defense are being touted as having a ferocious pass rush the likes of which Mahomes has never seen before. Meanwhile, the Chiefs pass rush isn&#x27;t being talked about in the same breath. Not even close with barely a mention as the 49ers defense hogs all the spotlight. I guess the Chiefs 45 sacks doesn&#x27;t even compare to the 49ers 48 sacks? Is this something we should overlook? Sometimes you have to take the prevalent sentiment and dissect it to see if the statements match up to the numbers. Is the 49ers pass rush all that its cracked up to be? Here are my unbiased findings. This may be a two-parter...49ers pass rush vs opposing O-linenumbers in paranthesis is stat for 2nd meetingvs Top 10 O-line(in sacks allowed): 5 teams, 6 games#1 Rams(2) - 4(0) 4 total sacks, 5(3) 8 hits#4 Saints - 0 sack, 3 hits#5 Vikings - 6 sacks, 9 hits#7 Ravens - 1 sack, 2 hits#10 Steelers - 2 sacks, 5 hits(13 sacks, 27 hits)vs Middle 11-20 O-line: 2 teams, 3 games#12 Packers(2) - 5(3) 8 sacks, 10(2) 12 hits#16 Browns - 4 sacks, 8 hits(12 sacks, 20 hits)vs Bottom rest O-line: 7 teams, 9 games(32 sacks, 57 hits)now for the Chiefs...Chiefs pass rush vs top O-linevs top 10 O-line: 5 teams, 6 games#5 Vikings - 1 sack, 4 hits#6 Patriots - 3 sacks, 6 hits#7 Ravens - 3 sacks, 6 hits#8 Raiders(2) - 3(2) 5 sacks, 5(2) 7 hits#9 Colts - 0 sacks, 3 hits(12 sacks, 23 hits)vs Middle 11-20 O-line: 5 teams, 7 games#11 Chargers(2) - 2(3) 5 sacks, 7(8) 15 hits#12 Packers - 5 sacks, 12 hits#17 Broncos(2) - 9(2) 11 sacks, 9(10) 19 hits#18 Jaguars - 1 sack, 2 hits#19 Lions - 4 sacks, 6 hits(26 sacks, 45 hits)vs Bottom rest O-line: 3 teams, 5 games(15 sacks, 28 hits)brief synopsis: when i look at these numbers, i&#x27;m thinking wow. look at how many bad O-lines the 49ers defense have played against in comparison to the Chiefs. They played Seattle and Arizona twice, Atlanta, Carolina, Washington, Tampa and Cincinnati while racking up 32 sacks altogether. the number seems inflated.

Digitalkarma · Answer

now lets compare these numbers to the expected value to see if team under or over performed. i will assign a few numbers.

---------------------

vs top 10:

i will assign a sack value of 2.0 & hit value of 4.0

vs middle 11-20:

i will assign a sack value of 2.5 & hit value of 5.0

vs bottom 20:

i will assign a sack value of 3.0 & hit value of 6.0

multiplied by the number of games X sack value.

--------------------------

49ers pass rush

vs top 10: 13 sacks, 27 hits (expected value: 12 sacks, 24 hits)

vs middle 11-20: 12 sacks, 20 hits (e.v: 7.5 sacks, 15 hits)

vs bottom 20: 32 sacks, 57 hits (e.v: 27 sacks, 54 hits)

overall: 57 sacks, 104 hits (e.v: 46.5 sacks, 93 hits)

performance: +10.5 sacks, +11 hits better than the expected average.

Chiefs pass rush

vs top 10: 12 sacks, 23 hits (expected value: 12 sacks, 24 hits)

vs middle 11-20: 26 sacks, 45 hits (e.v: 15 sacks, 35 hits)

vs bottom 20: 15 sacks, 28 hits (e.v: 15 sacks, 30 hits)

overall: 53 sacks, 96 hits (e.v: 42 sacks, 89 hits)

performance: +11 sacks, +7 hits better than the expected average.

Full synopsis: 49ers pass rush is the real deal no matter who they've played against. they've outperformed at the mid and bottom tiers(as they should) and also slightly outperformed against the top tier O-lines, although I will state that if they didnt have that performance against the Vikings in the divisional round then they would have underperformed against the top tier by -4 sacks and -2 hits. that performance can be attributed to the tough scheduling and health of their defense against the Saints and Rams late in the season. The 49ers defense is fully healthy now and can hold their own against a good O-line like the Chiefs.

Chiefs pass rush is no slouch either. They have performed right at the expected level in the upper and lower tiers but outperformed in the middle tier. One could make the argument that the Chiefs have played against better O-lines overall due to 49ers playing an overwhelming number of weak O-lines but that may be subject to debate. Instead we'll focus only on the top tier, so 49ers still have the edge over the Chiefs in playing better top tier competition to compensate for that. However, to dismiss the Chiefs pass rush in this game may be a mistake. 49ers O-line is still considered mid-tier and the Chiefs have done well against this group. I think the Chiefs pass rush is undervalued and can still be disruptive against a run-oriented offense. We'll get into all that other stuff later..

Instead of asking the all-popular how is Mahomes going to handle this 49er pass rush, maybe we should re-frame the question and ask how will Garropolo handle this Chiefs pass rush?

next up. the offensive lines

to be continued..

Digitalkarma · Answer

that is a solid tease my friend , go for it

chic-cardinals · Answer

I think we are going to have an entertaining and perhaps thrilling finish&#xA;=============%=%%%==========&#xA; &#xA;You&#x27;ll be bored by the 3rd qtr.

Maukaboy · Answer

Gl DK

Digitalkarma · Answer

i enjoy risk reward plays as much as anyone but Mahomes has never lost by more than 7 in the pros. KC has better pass attack than GB and MIN... combined. good luck but i think youre playing with fire here

Digitalkarma · Answer

GL Mauka

Digitalkarma · Answer

Now to provide similar context on the other side of the trenches..

Chiefs offense vs pass rush

vs top 10: 3 teams, 3 games

#9 Jaguars - 0 sacks, 4 hits

#5 Vikings - 5 sacks, 10 hits

#7 Patriots - 1 sack, 5 hits

Total: 6 sacks, 19 hits (E.V: 9 sacks, 18 hits)

Diff: +3, -1

vs 11-20: 4 teams, 6 games

#13 Titans(2) - 2(3) 5 sacks, 4(7) 11 hits

#15 Packers - 2 sacks, 7 hits

#16 Colts - 4 sacks, 8 hits

#17 Broncos(2) - 2(2) 4 sacks, 3(5) 8 hits

Total: 15 sacks, 34 hits (E.V: 15 sacks, 30 hits)

Diff: 0, -4

vs bottom 20: 6 teams, 9 games

Total: 8 sacks, 29 hits (E.V: 18 sacks, 36 hits)

Diff: +10, +7

Overall: 29 sacks, 82 hits (E.V: 42 sacks, 84 hits)

Diff: +13, +2

injuries:

Eric Fisher missed weeks #3 to 10

Laurent Duvernay Tardif missed weeks #9 & 10

Andrew Wylie missed week #6 to 8, 16 & 17, 19-20

17 total games missed between starting linemen

49ers offense vs pass rush

vs top 10: 7 teams, 8 games

#1 Steelers - 1 sack, 8 hits

#2 Panthers - 3 sacks, 4 hits

#3 Saints - 3 sacks, 6 hits

#4 Rams(2) - 2(6) sacks, 5(8) hits

#5 Vikings - 2 sacks, 3 hits

#8 Bucs - 1 sack, 1 hit

#10 Redskins - 2 sacks, 4 hits

Total: 20 sacks, 39 hits (E.V: 24 sacks, 48 hits)

Diff: +4, +9

vs top 11-20: 3 teams, 5 games

#15 Packers(2) - 3(1) sacks, 6(1) hits

#18 Cardinals(2) - 1(2) sack, 5(6) hits

#20 Browns - 2 sacks, 4 hits

Total: 9 sacks, 22 hits (E.V: 12.5 sacks, 25 hits)

Diff: +3.5, +3

vs bottom 20: 4 teams, 5 games

Total: 10 sacks, 21 hits (E.V: 10 sacks, 20 hits)

Diff: 0, -1

Overall: 39 sacks, 82 hits (E.V: 46.5 sacks, 93 hits)

Diff: +7.5, +11

injuries:

Joe Staley - missed week #3, 5-9, 11-13

Mike McGlinchey - missed week #6-9

Weston Richburg - missed week #15-17, 19-20

Mike Person - missed week #16-17

20 total games missed between lineman

I think we can all agree that both O-lines have performed well over expectations this season despite the health of their linemen and under challenging circumstances. For instance, the 49ers O-line battled against 7 of the top 10 pass rushes this season with 5 of them belonging in the top 5 alone! Not only has the 49er O-line held their own against the top tier, but they also did admirably without Staley or McGlinchey in games against Steelers, Rams, Redskins and Panthers. The offense may be battle-tested as a result and should be able to handle anything that comes at them.

Meanwhile, the same can kind of be said for the Chiefs, although on a lesser scale. Chiefs have only played against 3 of the top 10 pass rushes and may not quite be as battle-tested. However it should be noted that against the Vikings they didnt have Mahomes at QB, nor Fisher and Tardif manning the front line so its understandable Matt Moore got killed by Vikings defense. Also Mahomes ankle injury was problematic for his mobility early on before he got knocked out for a couple games. Other than that, the Chiefs O-line has passed with flying colors when they have faced off against a good pass rush but only when everyone is healthy. We wont know for certain how the Chiefs will handle the best pass rush they have seen all year. The only possible clue we may have is their recent game against the Patriots. Patrick Mahomes' mobility is going to be a big factor in this game should the O-line be not up to snuff.

While I have the Chiefs rated as the slightly better O-line, the 49ers are making this comparison closer than the numbers suggest. How much of the Chiefs good pass protection is due to Mahomes mobility? I have to believe the guys upfront have just as much to do with Mahomes success than Mahomes making his O-line look good.

and then comes the inevitable chess match..

to be continued

gutinstinctus · Answer

You are a sick poster. Thanks. &#xA;The one thing I noticed about SFs D line -which I overlooked in my bet on the game vs the Vikings- is that for most season it was not fully healthy. When all their players have been healthy and ready to go they may be amongst the all time best D lines EVER. &#xA;Now... the 49ers were beat by 2 of the best scrambling QBs in the league on RW and LJ. Regardless of how good those D Line guys are, Mahomes is faster and will be able to escape some of the pressure that Cousins and Rodgers could not avoid or delay.&#xA;Im not worried about the Chiefs D line simoly because Jimmy G is like Brady in that he gets rid of the ball in 2 seconds. And the Chiefs main concern is holding the run. They contained Henry, but Jimmy aint Tannehill, and the Titans do not have Deebo nor Kittle.&#xA;So... if the Chiefs are going to win we will see Mahomes have one of the best SB games ever played by a QB. &#xA;I know it looks fishy but the only bet I have placed is over 53.5 5 days ago. I dont see how KCs defense can stop Shannahan, and regardless how good SFs defense is, Mahomes is still by far the best QB in this league.

Digitalkarma · Answer

Lets begin with...Chessmatch #1Chiefs porous run defense vs 49ers relentless rush offenseMuch has been made about how terrible Chiefs defense is especially against the run. These are some of the general comments i&#x27;ve been gathering regarding the matter...49ers are going to run all over the Chiefs like they did against Vikings and Packers!If Titans didnt stop running Derrick Henry against the Chiefs bad run defense in the 2nd half then this game would&#x27;ve been different!Now on the surface this may seem to be true. 49ers have the 2nd best rush offense in the league, 2nd in total rush yards and 2nd most rush attempts. They are also averaging 4.6 ypc which is good for 8th best. On the other side we have a Chiefs rush defense that is ranked 26th in rush yards allowed, and allowing an average of 4.9 ypc which would be 6th and 4th worst respectively. This would seem to be a total mismatch right? Let&#x27;s peel back the onion layers a bit and use our investigative eye..

Digitalkarma · Answer

Chiefs rush defensevs top 10 rush offense(5 teams, 7 games)#1 Ravens - 32 att, 203 yds, 6.34 ypc#3 Titans(2) - 26 att, 225 yds, 8.65 ypc; 23 att, 85 yds, 3.69 ypc#6 Vikings - 27 att, 96 yds, 3.55 ypc#7 Colts - 45 att, 180 yds, 4.0 ypc#9 Texans(2) - 41 att, 192 yds, 4.68 ypc; 21 att, 94 yds, 4.47 ypctotal: 215 att, 1075 yds, 5.0 ypcvs middle 11-20 rush offense(5 teams, 7 games)#13 Raiders(2) - 19 att, 129 yds, 6.78 ypc; 25 att, 122 yds, 4.88 ypc#15 Packers - 26 att, 118 yds, 4.53 ypc#17 Jaguars - 16 att, 81 yds, 5.06 ypc#18 Patriots - 22 att, 94 yds, 4.27 ypc#20 Broncos(2) - 21 att, 71 yds, 3.38 ypc; 15 att, 52 yds, 3.46 ypctotal: 144 att, 667 yds, 4.63 ypcvs bottom 20 rush offense(3 teams, 4 games)#21 Lions - 35 att, 186 yds, 5.31 ypc#27 Bears - 22 att, 101 yds, 4.59 ypc#28 Chargers(2) - 19 att, 93 yds, 4.89 ypc; 25 att, 108 yd, 4.32 ypctotal: 101 att, 488 yds, 4.83 ypcnow.. what does this all mean? Chiefs rush defense numbers is inconsistent all across the board! they&#x27;ve looked  good in some games against the top rushing teams and shitty in others. how were they able to stop Derrick Henry in the 2nd meeting but not the 1st? i will dig deeper into that later but first take the numbers all in. now for the 49ers..

Digitalkarma · Answer

49ers rush offensevs top 10 rush defense(3 teams, 3 games)#1 Buccaneers - 32 att, 96 yds, 3.06 ypc#4 Saints - 24 att, 162 yds, 6.75 ypc#5 Ravens - 29 att, 174 yds, 6.0 ypctotal: 85 att, 432 yds, 5.08 ypcvs middle 11-20 rush defense(4 teams, 5 games)#13 Vikings - 47 att, 186 yds, 3.95 ypc#14 Steelers - 40 att, 168 yds, 4.2 ypc#15 Falcons -  27 att, 120 yds, 4.4 ypc#19 Rams(2) - 41 att, 91 yds, 2.41 ypc; 23 att, 119 yds, 5.17 ypctotal: 178 att, 684 yds, 3.84 ypcvs bottom 20 rush defense(7 teams, 10 games)#22 Seahawks(2) - 27 att, 87 yds, 3.22 ypc; 24 att, 128 yd, 5.33 ypc#23 Packers(2) - 22 att, 112 yd, 5.09 ypc; 42 att, 285 yd, 6.78 ypc#24 Cardinals(2) - 31 att, 101 yd, 3.25 ypc; 19 att, 34 yd, 1.78 ypc#29 Panthers -38 att, 232 yd, 6.1 ypc#30 Browns - 40 att, 275 yd, 6.87 ypc#31 Redskins - 39 att, 137 yd, 3.51 ypc#32 Bengals - 42 att, 259 yd, 6.16 ypctotal: 324 att, 1650 yds, 5.09 ypcif there is one obvious conclusion we can draw from these stats its that the 49ers love to run the ball, and will commit to it even if their rushing efficiency takes a hit when their not quite as successful on a ypc basis. Niners RB committee is guaranteed almost 30 touches per game minimum. Whats also interesting is that the 49ers have played a smattering of weak run defenses on their schedule including the top 4 worst run defenses in the league, one of which KC is right up there with the worst or, are they? to be continued

ActionMagnet · Answer

So when will you post your KC play?

Digitalkarma · Answer

[Quote: Originally Posted by gutinstinctus]  You are a sick poster. Thanks. &#xD;&#xA;The one thing I noticed about SFs D line -which I overlooked in my bet on the game vs the Vikings- is that for most season it was not fully healthy. When all their players have been healthy and ready to go they may be amongst the all time best D lines EVER. &#xD;&#xA;Now... the 49ers were beat by 2 of the best scrambling QBs in the league on RW and LJ. Regardless of how good those D Line guys are, Mahomes is faster and will be able to escape some of the pressure that Cousins and Rodgers could not avoid or delay.&#xD;&#xA;Im not worried about the Chiefs D line simoly because Jimmy G is like Brady in that he gets rid of the ball in 2 seconds. And the Chiefs main concern is holding the run. They contained Henry, but Jimmy aint Tannehill, and the Titans do not have Deebo nor Kittle.&#xD;&#xA;So... if the Chiefs are going to win we will see Mahomes have one of the best SB games ever played by a QB. &#xD;&#xA;I know it looks fishy but the only bet I have placed is over 53.5 5 days ago. I dont see how KCs defense can stop Shannahan, and regardless how good SFs defense is, Mahomes is still by far the best QB in this league.  [/Quote]leaning Over as well. thank you GL

begginerboy · Answer

Sorry, DK. This one made me chuckle because I think Action might be on to something:)

Digitalkarma · Answer

Until all the facts are present. i have no definitive lean

Digitalkarma · Answer

hahaha , its cool bb

begginerboy · Answer

This is all good work. Obviously I have not followed KC as closely because they are not my local team, but SF has been a different team when healthy and rested. I&#x2019;m sure this applies to most teams but it is especially true with this one because 1) they suffered so many injuries 2) they had one of the toughest schedules and 3) their bye was in week 4! For me, the way their defense performed against the Rams early in the season vs how they performed later is the greatest indicator of how much their defense had dropped off. Needless to say, the defense you saw early in the year and now in the playoffs is the one you can expect to see in the SB. Which is not to say Mahomes won&#x2019;t be successful. But how the defense performed late in the season is pretty meaningless.

Digitalkarma · Answer

so back to the question. how were the Chiefs able to stop Derrick Henry in the 2nd meeting but not the 1st?There&#x27;s a player on the Chiefs defense not many are talking about and his name is... Mike Pennel. The Chiefs signed the runstuffer back in mid October to help shore up their leaky run defense and their defense has been flying under the radar since. Lets do the good ol splits shall we...Titans game without Pennel26 att, 225 yds, 8.65 ypc Titans game with Pennel23 att, 85 yds, 3.69 ypcI know people were saying the Titans shouldnt have stopped giving Henry the ball but here is what happened. Henry was only running for 62 yds on 15 carries for 4.13 ypc in the 1st half. On their 1st drive in 2nd half, Henry ran for only 7 yds on 4 carries. The drive resulted in a punt for Titans. the Chiefs scored on the ensuing possession to make it 28-17. Obviously feeling a little bit of the pressure and the run game not going smoothly, Tannehill started passing then got sacked. Chiefs scored again to put it out of reach and the rest as they say is history. here is the season split basically 1st half of season vs 2nd half..Chiefs run defense without Mike Pennel(from week 1 to week 7 and week 10 vs TEN)235 att, 1267 yds, 5.39 ypcChiefs run defense with Mike Pennel(from week 8 to week 17 excluding week 10 vs TEN)181 att, 784 yds, 4.33 ypcthen we have the 7 games vs top rushing teams. Pennel played in 3 of themAgainst top rushing teams without Pennel144 att, 800 yds, 5.55 ypcAgainst top rushing teams with Pennel71 att, 275 yds, 3.87 ypcMaybe Chiefs havent quite been tested enough but looking at these stats you cannot overlook this run defense. Everyone talks about Chris Jones or Frank Clark being the catalyst for how the run defense performs and they are to some degree but a big part of their success is due to Pennel. With all 3 healthy, they will have their hands full with Mostert, Breida and to some extent Deebo

Digitalkarma · Answer

me neither thats why i am doing this. i&#x27;m learning more about the Chiefs than i had in previous weeks where i would have overlooked a few things about them. and everything youve said about Niners is on point. thats why these two teams are here playing in the Super Bowl. they overcame adversity and got it together at the right time. This is not an easy game to pick. my first reaction was to take 49ers but i dont want to overreact like everyone else on this board is doing(49er blowout, really?). instead of jumping the gun im gonna sit back and give myself 2 weeks to prepare.

DK Super Bowl 54 -- Mega Finale Spectacular!

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