Chessmatch #2Chiefs speedy pass offense vs 49ers brickwall pass defense
I am not going to go too in-depth with the passing matchup like i did with the running game. As I mentioned before, I think Chiefs pass defense isnt quite as good as their stats suggests while playing weaker passing offenses and believe Garropolo will do just fine against them if he gets enough time to throw. therefore I dont see the need to break down the Chiefs pass defense.
Mahomes vs Niner defense( or specifically the Niner secondary) is getting all the spotlight and i think that is where we should focus all our attention on anyway. Can Mahomes beat the #1 pass defense?
Chiefs pass offense
vs top 10 pass defense(comp %)
#1 Patriots - 56.5% , Mahomes 26/40(65%)
#2 Ravens - 58.5% , Mahomes 27/37(72.9%)
#3 Packers - 59.7%, Moore 24/36(66.6%)
#7 49ers - 61.3% , Mahomes ?
Overall: 77/113(68.1%)
vs top 10 pass defense(avg yards)
#1 49ers - 169.2 yds , Mahomes ?
#2 Patriots - 180.4 yds , Mahomes 283 yds
#5 Chargers - 200.3 yds, Mahomes 182 yds ; 174 yds
#6 Ravens - 207.2 yds , Mahomes 371 yds
#9 Bears - 222.1 yds , Mahomes 251 yds
Overall: 1261 yds(252.2)
vs top 10 pass defense(per pass attempt)
#1 49ers - 5.9 , Mahomes ?
#2 Patriots - 6.0 , Mahomes - 7.1
#4 Ravens - 6.6 , Mahomes - 10.1
#5 Bears - 6.6 , Mahomes - 7.6
#9 Vikings - 6.8 , Moore - 7.9
Overall: 8.1
vs top 10 pass defense(td's allowed)
#1 Patriots - 13(0.81) , Mahomes - 1 TD
#3 Ravens - 15(0.93) , Mahomes - 3 TD
#4 Bears - 17(1.06) , Mahomes - 2 TD
#5 Broncos - 19(1.18) Mahomes/Moore - 1 TD ea ; Mahomes - 2 TD
#6 Packers - 19(1.18) , Moore - 2 TD
#10 Chargers - 21(1.3) , Mahomes - 1 TD ; 1 TD
#16 49ers - 23(1.43) , Mahomes ?
Overall: 14 TDs (1.75)
vs top 10 pass defense(INTs)
#1 Patriots - 25(1.56) , Mahomes - 1 INT
#3 Packers - 17(1.06) , Moore - 0 INT
#4 Vikings - 17(1.06) , Moore - 0 INT
#7 Colts - 15(0.93) , Mahomes - 0 INT
#10 Titans - 14(0.87) , Mahomes - 0 INT ; 0 INT
#19 49ers - 12(0.75) , Mahomes ?
Overall: 1 INT (0.16)
vs top 10 pass defense(passer rating)
#1 Patriots - 62.8 , Mahomes - 83.6
#2 Ravens - 77.5 , Mahomes - 132.0
#6 Packers - 81.1 , Moore - 107.1
#7 49ers - 83.0 , Mahomes ?
#8 Bears - 85.2 , Mahomes - 112.1
#10 Vikings - 86.1 , Moore - 103.9
Overall: 107.7
the only games we can get some idea of how Mahomes has played against the best pass defenses is the Pats and Bears. the Ravens werent at full strength with Jimmy Smith out, nor did they have Marcus Peters at the time so there is not much value looking into that one. Vikings and Packers didnt have to face Mahomes but Moore did an admirable job filling in. so all things considered the Chiefs have held their own offensively against those teams, 5 of which are ranked top 10 in pass defense DVOA.
to be continued
. Looking at MVP picks, kinda' like looking at the horses to me, I'm looking for odds and value. This year I think the two 2 tight ends are definitely worth a shot, @ 15 and 20 -1, there is alot of value with two outstanding players who you know will be involved and have a nose for the end zone. Looks like we agree. Good Luck to you!
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