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Do you want to gamble?..or win?...

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Posted: #1
As there are always new and budding sports handicapping prodigies coming here to Covers every day...I felt it was time to perform a community service and review several very important points about wagering on the NFL in particular...

How often does the point spread come into play in NFL games?

Have a guess?...

Well, here is the answer...

Winners of NFL games are 4836-991-162 ATS since 1989...

Translated...this means that if you pick the winner of the game, your win rate since 1989 is 82.99%...

That is correct...that is not a typo.. all you need to do is pick the WINNER OF THE GAME ...you would win a long term rate of nearly 83%....

Let that sink in just for a minute...and, in case you are REALLY new to wagering in the NFL...to break even against a (-110) line, you need win 52.4% of your bets...at a (-105) you have to win 51.2% of your wagers to break even...

Do you know what professional sports bettors DREAM about every year?...they dream about winning 55% of their wagers for the season...at 58%...they have convulsions...at 60%...they literally are seen as gods and can name their number if they decide to go tout...

But...all you would need to do to have an 83% win rate over the last 5989 games is to just PICK THE WINNER with absolutely NO regard for the point spread...

QUIT fretting about the point spread...just pick the winners of the games and employ good bankroll money management...be disciplined in these 2 things and stop gambling...start WINNING...

Good bankroll management is 1% to 3% of your total bankroll per wager...NO EXCEPTIONS!!!!...

Gambling players are how the books make money...gamblers are EMOTIONAL....IMPULSIVE...UNDISCIPLINED...they chase losses trying to get even with games that should NEVER be wagered on...

Stop being a GAMBLER and become an INVESTOR...

Copy and paste this post to a word document...blow it up...print it out and tape it to the wall above your computer...or put it in front of your face somehow so you have to read it every day...NEVER forget these facts...

Sports wagering 101...class is dismissed...but never forget what you have just learned...





PM for the skinny on the down low
 
Prospect
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Posted: #2

This is the only reason it is still worthy to browse Covers page. 

Thank you, Smartsmiter. 

 
Prospect
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Posted: #3

Great stuff Bro...best ive read yet on here an_clap and invaluable advice for any beginner or experienced sports handicapper 

 
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Posted: #4

does the big favs cover at this rate? the dogs is 100%

j
 
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Posted: #5
I actually just discovered this exact same thing yesterday. Shocking! I would've thought the points come into play much more.
 
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Posted: #6
Quote Originally Posted by JumpinJeremy55:

does the big favs cover at this rate? the dogs is 100%


Suspect big favs are a caveat, KC -15 and LAC -14 last week come to mind both won but didn't cover. Also KC -17 earlier this year against Ari won but no cover. 

Going to look into this later.
 
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Posted: #7

First off! Thank you for this post.  Very informative.

I'm in a weekly pickem league with some friends, not ATS, winners only. There are 24 of us. I have won a disproportionate, 4 weeks so far. I am 136-70. I have been wondering, if I was betting these ATS what would it look like. This gives me some idea.  

 
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Posted: #8

Quote Originally Posted by smacksmiter:

Winners of NFL games are 4836-991-162 ATS since 1989...Translated...this means that if you pick the winner of the game, your win rate since 1989 is 82.99%...That is correct...that is not a typo.. all you need to do is pick the WINNER OF THE GAME ...you would win a long term rate of nearly 83%....


Source for that number? Is that based off opening line? closing line? Does it use the same book since 1989?

 
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Posted: #9
IM A GAMBLER AND PROUD OF IT 
 
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Posted: #10
Quote Originally Posted by DonkeyPlays:



Source for that number? Is that based off opening line? closing line? Does it use the same book since 1989?


I have seen this statistic over the years many times but just did a quick search to find this link where someone did a SDQL search using just a capital "W"...

https://pregame.com/pregame-forums/f/nfl/693901/does-the-point-spread-matter-all-that-much

PM for the skinny on the down low
 
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Posted: #11
If you read the other 3 pages in that forum post I linked to, someone says they assume it is based on the closing line and that if you took the opening line you actually might have a better number on the ATS results...

Another interesting comment is that people speculated that if you stuck to -7 or lower favorites and avoided the big favorites your number ATS would be even better...

PM for the skinny on the down low
 
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Posted: #12
I'm like that gambling cop Bad Lieutenant, I need to straighten out and listen.  
 
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Posted: #13

When you are picking dogs and the spread doesn't come into play usually....could you play the moneyline for the dogs and the spread for the favorites?

 
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Posted: #14
Quote Originally Posted by byroncard:

When you are picking dogs and the spread doesn't come into play usually....could you play the moneyline for the dogs and the spread for the favorites?


imo, absolutely
bigFnPOO
 
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Posted: #15
I’m in a picks pool league against the spread. I just went back to the last four weeks and the average amount of games where the points actually came into play and changed the result was 3 games per week (it was 4, 3, 2, 3). Thanks for the perspective. 
 
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Posted: #16
Favs win aprox.  2/3 of the time.  The point spread comes into play aprox. 1/6 of the time.  That would be 66.66% minus 16.66%  (aprox.)    Pulls you right back to 50%, a bookies dream customer.  That is why we have such a hell of a time beating this game.
 
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Posted: #17

None of it matters though....you still have to be on the right side. With possibility of a tie, you have less than a 50% chance of being right. That's great that the spread doesnt come into play most of the time, but you still got to pick the right side. The lesson here I think is money line betting. Fuck the spread, bet the ml dawgs!

 
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Posted: #18

Quote Originally Posted by smacksmiter:

As there are always new and budding sports handicapping prodigies coming here to Covers every day...I felt it was time to perform a community service and review several very important points about wagering on the NFL in particular...How often does the point spread come into play in NFL games?Have a guess?...Well, here is the answer...Winners of NFL games are 4836-991-162 ATS since 1989...Translated...this means that if you pick the winner of the game, your win rate since 1989 is 82.99%...That is correct...that is not a typo.. all you need to do is pick the WINNER OF THE GAME ...you would win a long term rate of nearly 83%....Let that sink in just for a minute...and, in case you are REALLY new to wagering in the NFL...to break even against a (-110) line, you need win 52.4% of your bets...at a (-105) you have to win 51.2% of your wagers to break even...Do you know what professional sports bettors DREAM about every year?...they dream about winning 55% of their wagers for the season...at 58%...they have convulsions...at 60%...they literally are seen as gods and can name their number if they decide to go tout...But...all you would need to do to have an 83% win rate over the last 5989 games is to just PICK THE WINNER with absolutely NO regard for the point spread...QUIT fretting about the point spread...just pick the winners of the games and employ good bankroll money management...be disciplined in these 2 things and stop gambling...start WINNING...Good bankroll management is 1% to 3% of your total bankroll per wager...NO EXCEPTIONS!!!!...Gambling players are how the books make money...gamblers are EMOTIONAL....IMPULSIVE...UNDISCIPLINED...they chase losses trying to get even with games that should NEVER be wagered on...Stop being a GAMBLER and become an INVESTOR...Copy and paste this post to a word document...blow it up...print it out and tape it to the wall above your computer...or put it in front of your face somehow so you have to read it every day...NEVER forget these facts...Sports wagering 101...class is dismissed...but never forget what you have just learned...

Right on SMACKSMITER!!!  DOGS CAN WIN GAMES TOO!!!

 

 

 

 
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Posted: #19
POSTED: 

They have to stay same or ahead of Rams both 11-2, so every game is a must win if they want trip to the Super Bowl to go through the SuperDome!  Cam is not right, McCaffrey not enough to carry team.  Cam has the Saints twice so give up on playoffs.

If you do play Panthers play the ML as points come in to play only one, two or three times a weekend so Saints cover or Panthers steal the game.  Two games this past weekend the points made a difference KC -6.5 won by 3 lost ATS & LAC -13.5 won by 5 lost ATS.  Steals like Miami, Oakland, Colts, Niners, Jets all won their games as dogs.  Miami @ +9 and OAK @ +11.

 

My Live Dogs this weekend are  LIONS  JETS  BROWNIES  & BOTH BAY AREA TEAMS   OAK & NINERS

 
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Posted: #20

I think it's also important to find out what RANGE the profitable moneyline (ml) plays were IF flat betting 1 unit and no more.  Rationally thinking, I would think ml plays from the range of +200 through -400 would be "profitable."  Anything ml higher than that, would involve a scenario of multiple wins being wiped out by a huge favorite loss, say for example, a -800 ml bet losing.  They can and do happen.  Also, some sports are more volatile than others.  In my opinion, NHL, baseball and college basketball are very volatile and should be bet less or completely avoided whereas the NBA, NFL and college football are more consistent with pregame predictions.

It would be interesting if somebody did a mini-experiment on this with EACH American sport (NFL, NBA, NHL, College bball, college football, MLB, MLS but NOT international soccer.  Sorry international soccer/"football" fans) and a small bankroll with 1 unit equating to $20.  The results would be updated daily on a thread on each forum for everybody to see.  Of course, there would also be more specific rules like how many games to bet per day and the types of bets that they can make. (Full game, 1st half, 2nd half, etc...)

I might have to do this next season with a $1k bankroll/$20 a unit side project... an_lightpeace_5

"Schrödinger's bet." A bet that loses when you bet it but wins when you DON'T bet it...
 
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Posted: #21

Quote Originally Posted by NinjaNight:

I actually just discovered this exact same thing yesterday. Shocking! I would've thought the points come into play much more.

They do come into play much more... You have to first look at rate underdogs win... if they win half, your 88% just became 75%... underdogs win less than half but you get the math... still, very very strong point by Smacks!!

 
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Posted: #22

Going back to 1989, regular season games only.....

Favorites have a record of 4841-2347-12, winning straight up 67.3% of the time.

The favorites have an against the spread record  of 3445-3556-199, covering 49.2% of the time with an average line of -5.6.

So betting a favorite, you would not have won (you either lost or tied) 27% of the time when the favorite won the game outright.

This obviously means that a favorite that wins the game outright covers 73% of the time.

 

 
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Posted: #23

Actually, dividing 3445/4841 would mean that a favorite that wins the game outright covers 71.1% of the time.

 
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Posted: #24

Amazing stat...I tend to pick winners only in the NFL out of instinct and now I feel a lot better abt that

 
 
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Posted: #25

Check out Thursday night dog stats....

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